Thursday, December 26, 2013

TNX Daily Chart Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Developing

The 10-year yield is teasing 3%. There is some near-term upside momo with yields (green circles) over the last few days, with prices dropping and yields rising. The ROC remains negatively diverged. The negative divergence remains across all indicators from peak to peak over the last 4 months. Yield now makes a matching high but the indicators do not have as much oomph, excluding the current holiday machinations. The brown lines show an inverted H&S in play with head at 2.47% and neck line at 2.74% which targets 3.01%.

The TNX weekly chart is negatively diverged peak to peak, from the September top to now. Yield has been in a sideways range through 2.45%-3.00% for the last 7 months, over one-half year. A break out of this range is very telling and yield now teases the top end. The RSI on the weekly chart shows long and strong momo in the short term 3-week time frame. The red rising wedge pattern on the daily chart allows yield to move to the 3.05% level. The charts are open to squeezing out some marginal additional highs in yield but overall, moving forward for weeks and months ahead, the upside in yields appears limited.

Keystone's 80/20 rule says 8's lead to 2's so the 2.80% level does open a door to 3.20%. Current projection would be for yield to stall and pull back a few basis points in coming days but then punch out the higher high above 3% say into the 3.00%-3.05% range and this has potential of placing a top in yields that may hold for weeks and months ahead. The TNX charts can be reassessed in a week or two. At this time, a dramatic up in yields is not expected. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

No comments:

Post a Comment

Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.