Saturday, December 14, 2013
Keystone's Daily Chronology of Global Markets and World Economics and Key Events Ahead 12/14/13
On Friday, 12/6/13, futures are positive in the early morning with S&P’s +7. The dollar/yen is inching higher to 102.20 which creates lift in the NIKK. Vice president Biden wraps up the China visit urging a resolution to the Japan island dispute. Biden’s next stop is S. Korea. Abe takes the lead and requests a summit with China to address the rising tensions in Asia. Smog in Shanghai is at the highest extremely hazardous levels. Thousands of mourners gather outside Mandela’s house to pay respect. North Sea ports close due to severe storms. GM will stop offering the Chevy brand in Europe. DB exits commodity trading leaving GS as the main player involved in the commodities sectors. The Bundesbank raises growth estimates and says Europe is recovering. The euro remains elevated at 1.3667. AEO is -5.6% pre-market. Congress is one week away from the deadline to develop a budget agreement and the news is encouraging from Capitol Hill that a 2-year deal may announced next week. The Monthly Jobs Report is stellar with 203K jobs, 7.0% unemployment rate (lowest since the December 2008 market crash, 5 years ago), both average hours worked and wages are up and the labor participation rate moves up a touch to 63% but holding at the 3-decade lows. Interestingly, 41% of the jobs created are government jobs. Markets react violently in both directions. The 10-year yield jumps to 2.93% but quickly retreats to 2.87% where it was before the number. 10 minutes after the release and markets are where they were before the report but as time ticks by equities catch a strong bid and by 9 AM EST the S&P’s are +17, Dow +105 and Nasdaq +29. The bulls are running. Volatility drops. The broad indexes leap higher at the opening bell with the SPX printing up over 1800 and Dow over 16K. Consumer Sentiment is 82.5 at the summer time highs. Fed’s Plosser says “we need to begin to get rid of QE,” but no one pays attention. ULTA -21%. JCP -8.7%. The tape is strong today. Volatility remains low under 14 and the dollar/yen jumps higher to 102.85 creating the bull fuel for the stock market. Natty gas is 4.11 remaining at a 6 month high. Interestingly, the high-flyers like AAPL, FB, NFLX and TSLA are all sold off today ending negative. GPS -3% losing last evenings luster. GOOG prints a new all-time high at 1070. Bitcoin drops to 877 after BIDU says it will not accept bitcoin for payments. At the bell, the SPX gains 20 points, +1.1%, to 1805, halting the 5-day losing streak. The Dow gains 199 points, +1.3%, to 16020 as the dividend stock bubble is pumped. XLP jumps +1.4% as traders think they will be safer in the staples (tooth paste, toilet paper, soap, etc…) if a market down turn occurs. They will likely not be. The Nasdaq is up 29 points, +0.7%, to 4063 with a hanging man candlestick printing on the daily chart. The RUT is up 9 points +0.8%, to 1131. Tech and small caps lag the broader market up move. Trannies also underperform at +0.6%. For the week, the SPX is a hair lower reversing the 8-week winning streak. The Dow is negative on the week losing -0.4% and its 8-week winning streak. The Nasdaq is a single hair positive on the week with the RUT small caps down -1.1% this week. The overall bullish market vibe continues with long trader’s high-fiving each other without any fear of market downside ahead. The 10-year yield is 2.88%. Dollar/yen 102.90. The euro hits 1.37 which will limit Europe’s ability to recover. The USD dollar basket weakens to 80.27 on the stronger euro. The pound is 1.6347. Long traders need to send a thank you note to the BOJ since the bludgeoning of the yen today, -1.1%, driving the dollar/yen higher to 102.90, was the main driver of the higher stock market. Banzai!! The central bankers are the market and the Fed and BOJ have been tag-teaming in recent days, taking turns at pumping the stock market higher. It took 6 Fed POMO pumps this week to prevent the stock market from dropping and another 6 POMO pumps are planned for next week.
On Saturday, 12/7/13, North Korea frees the American vet held hostage. South Africa announces 10 days of mourning over Mandela’s death. The Obamacare mess continues with growing concern that folks will have a lapse in coverage starting January 1st due to the poor functionality of the website and program in general. The Whitehouse is aware of this problem but has not sent letters to warn people. Many folks think they signed up for insurance, but they are actually not covered. Based on current projections, there may actually be more folks that have lost health insurance than gained insurance come January 1st. A poll shows that about 75% of young folks, 3 out of 4, are either unlikely to enroll, or on the fence at 50/50 concerning enrolling, for Obamacare. The program will likely have to be bailed out by the taxpayer in the future. The Obama Administration will allow wind farms to continue killing and injuring bald eagles for the next 30 years for the sake of boosting green energy. The turbine blade tips reach speeds of over 170 MPH and kill dozens of bald eagles each year. The action will send wind energy stock prices higher.
On Sunday, 12/8/13, Japan approves a new secrecy law that allows defense information to be exchanged easier between the U.S. and Japan in light of the growing tensions with China. The law is obviously implemented to place a muzzle on any news concerning the ongoing Fukishima nuclear disaster. An Asahi newspaper poll shows Abe’s approval rating dropping under 50%. Frigid cold temperatures and ice, snow and sleet storms move across the States claiming 6 deaths. China exports beat expectations although imports are lagging hinting that the global environment is experiencing a spurt of activity but the China domestic economy remains challenged. The Ukraine protests intensify as a ‘million man march’ occurs with hundreds of thousands of protestors taking to the streets. A statue of Lenin is toppled and the head is cut off emphasizing support for the EU as a path forward rather than Russia. Authorities become concerned that a coup will overthrow the government. Thai Prime Minister Yingluck dissolves parliament under pressure from protestors and calls for snap elections. Elections are promised by 2/2/14 but the anti-government protestors remain in the streets with about 150K demonstrators marching in Bangkok. A riot breaks out in Singapore, the first unrest in over 40 years, when a bus runs over and kills an Indian worker. Singapore has a large Indian population. Anti-riot forces attempt to calm the crowds but police cars are overturned and nearly 20 people are injured including 10 police officers. The social unrest increases around the world, especially as the global central banker easy money policies make the rich richer at the expense of common citizens.
On Monday, 12/9/13, Aussie’s QBE (insurance) is whacked -23%. Japan’s growth is much weaker than expected at a GDP of 1.1% down from the prior 1.9% reading. The BOJ easy money is not used for business investment but instead for buybacks to pump the stock market higher, just like the U.S. Japan markets play catch-up to the U.S. Friday upside orgy, and the BOJ weakens the yen, sending the dollar/yen to 103.10, creating a +2.3% jump in the NIKK overnight. Kospi is +1%. Shanghai finishes flat. India’s BSE prints at historic highs. North Korea’s Kim Jong-il flexes his muscles booting his uncle from the upper circle of power. Tech companies MSFT, GOOG, AAPL, YHOO, TWTR, AOL and LNKD join together complaining to the government about the ongoing surveillance and invasive activity of customer accounts. These companies already sold their souls. Everyone must realize that whatever you do electronically, via computers or cell phones, is monitored, recorded and archived forever; this is the way it will always be. HSBC may split off a banking unit so it pops higher. German export orders are stronger than expected. The euro hits a high at 1.3748 and euro/yen is at 1.4140. The pound is 1.6389. Samaras boasts of a ‘historic day’ as Greece passes a 2014 budget, however, the Troika will meet this week and have to sign off on the plan. The 10-year yield is at 2.85%. House and Senate leaders work towards a budget agreement by Friday but it will simply result in more can-kicking without any serious attempt to control spending or reduce the growing size of the Federal government. The U.S. Attorney’s Office is considering a fine against JPM for not reporting the Madoff scandal since the suspicious activity was very obvious. Emails and documents surface that show JPM, and potentially several other banks, received preferential business treatment because they employed the sons and daughters of Chinese officials. Traders, however, continue to believe that financials will lead equities higher and JPM is +0.4% pre-market. MCD is -0.4% pre-market after reporting mixed sales results. Natty gas is 4.19 remaining elevated due to the frigid temperatures across the States. The broad indexes pop higher at the opening bell albeit marginally. Copper moves higher helping create market buoyancy. GOOG prints another new all-time high above 1077. Ex-GS trader Matthew Taylor is sentenced to 9 months prison time for covering up huge trading losses to protect his bonus. What a rookie; if he was a higher-up GS executive he would not do any jail time. AMTD says the bullishness among traders is at the highest level in 2 years (typically a contrarian signal). VIX moves above 14. Household net worth hits a record high in Q3 which is no surprise since the Fed and other central bankers are pumping the stock market which makes the wealthy wealthier, and sends the average net worth higher. Equities remain bullish through lunch time into the afternoon session. BBRY -2.2% printing new record lows. Over one-half of the skiers hitting the ski slopes in the States are families with incomes over 100K. The middle class is priced out of the winter fun. Public golf courses are feeling similar pressure as the middle class struggles and prefers to spend their hard-earned cash on food and other necessities instead of expensive fun that only the Bernanke-supported wealthy can afford. The broad indexes finish flat to slightly positive trading in a tight range all day long. The SPX prints a new all-time closing high at 1808.37 but not a new all-time intraday high. The Dow remains above 16K. The Nasdaq prints new 13-year highs closing at 4069. RUT small caps trade lower all day long and finish negative. Copper, trannies and semiconductors all help keep the markets elevated. Fed’s Lacker and Fisher are open to the idea of tapering but traders are too drunk on the easy money wine and no one pays attention. Fisher was a strong hawk that turned into a dove, now he tries to reverse again to a hawkish stance.
On Tuesday, 12/10/13, Shanghai continues to tell parents to keep children indoors from the air pollution for 7 consecutive days. The dollar/yen drops slightly to 103.10 (stronger yen) so the NIKK finishes slightly negative. Asia stocks are flat to down. BOE’s Carney says the U.K. recovery depends on the European partners. Carney also says the constant can-kicking by the U.S. on budget and government funding policies will hurt the country longer term. France industrial production numbers are weak reflecting a very sick economy. Presidents Obama, Bush, Clinton and Carter attend funeral ceremonies for Nelson Mandela in South Africa. The 10-year yield drops to 2.82%. NFIB Small Business Optimism Index is encouraging as businesses slightly increase hiring. The JOLTS Report shows another marginal increase in job openings. The Volcker rule is approved but banks are already looking for loopholes and do not expect too much disruption. XLF is slightly higher today so banks do not appear worried. PEP dumps -12% on weak numbers. IEP (Icahn) drops -10%. TOL jumps +3% beating on earnings but orders are flat showing a ‘leveling off of demand’ and indicating that higher house prices are cutting into sales. LULU founder Chip Wilson steps down after commenting that the see-through yoga pants problem was due to women’s plump body shapes, that the product is not intended for, and not the pants design. LULU jumps +2.4%. WMT names David Cheesewright as the new CEO. GM names Mary Barra as the new CEO; the first female CEO in the global automobile industry. The 10-year yield drops to 2.80%. The ECB says there is no hurry to add stimulus so the euro moves higher towards 1.38. The dollar/yen drops to 102.80 (stronger yen) so the S&P futures drop 7 handles over the 4-hour period before the opening bell. Equities are weak as the regular trading session begins but volatility remains low so the bears cannot develop any downside energy. IMF says signs of growth in Europe are emerging. Equities finish lower on the day. The SPX ends at 1803. The Dow is 15973 back under 16K. The RUT dumps -0.8% to 1120. TWTR gains +5.8% closing at 51.99 with an intraday high at 52.58 as traders chase the latest favorite son. After the bell, HRB is taxed -5%. SWHC shoots +5.6% higher on strong earnings. ABBV jumps higher on encouraging hepatitis C drug results which slams biotech favorite GILD 0-3.2%. MA gains +1.4% after announcing a 10 for 1 stock split, an 83% increase in the divvy and an increased stock buyback program. Uruguay is the first country to legalize marijuana for recreational use setting up the first regulated market for pot. Congressional budget negotiators Ryan and Murray reach a tentative 2-year agreement to avert a government shutdown in 2014. S&P futures gain +3 with a muted reaction to the budget agreement. Investor Charles Schwab says the stock market will run to Dow 20K within a couple years. Schwab says there are no asset bubbles and equities are supported by a strong economy. The bullishness is rampant across Wall Street. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios continue to print lows showing uber complacency and lack of fear in the markets.
On Wednesday, 12/11/13, the NIKK dumps -0.6% since the yen is stronger and the dollar/yen drops to 102.55. The SSEC drops -1.5% on a rumor that China’s 7.5% growth rate may be reduced to 7.0%. China yuan trades at a 20-year high. The Ukraine protests continue with injuries occurring daily. Government authorities remove protestors from Kiev Square. The EU wants to develop a bailout package to help Ukraine but Germany is not warm to the idea. Eurozone ministers agree on a banking union outline but talks have a long way to go to meet their deadline goal by the end of the year. Inditex (European retailer) profits are in line but sales are challenged due to the elevated euro. German manufacturers continue to voice concern over the strong euro. The euro is 1.3763 continuing a strong ascent; the pound is 1.6415. The IEA increases the 2014 oil demand forecast. S&P downgrades the U.S. growth forecast. The 10-year yield softens to 2.81%. Traders and analysts study the proposed budget deal more closely and discover that the deal is simply more can-kicking with no serious attempt to actually reduce debt and spending. Politicians are painted as Grinch’s and Scrooge’s since unemployment benefits will not be extended under the budget plan. S&P futures are -3 early morning on the east coast. COST misses on earnings so it is punished -2.7%. Global bellwether JOY misses and it is beaten -4.5%. WFC upgrades GRPN which pops +1%. AVON -3.7%. P drops -3% after Spotify buys the rights to the Led Zeppelin song catalog and increases its mobile offerings. AVNR is downgraded due to disappointing MS drug trial results and is bludgeoned -25%. Mortgage Applications rise a touch above the flat line reversing a 5-week slide. Investors Intelligence (AAII) Sentiment Survey shows the bullish percent at near 60%, an obscenely multi-year high level, with bearish sentiment continuing to drop now down at 14%. Bulls are outnumbering bears by 4 to 1. The AAII Survey circulates across trading desks since it is a reliable contrarian indicator (the excessive bullishness and lack of bearishness typically identifies market tops). Futures move to the flat line before the opening bell but as the trading session opens and progresses, the broad markets leak solidly lower. Oil Inventories drop but oil price moves lower instead of higher. 10-Year Note Auction is not particularly well received and the yield creeps higher to 2.83%. The broad indexes continue selling off. HHS Secretary Sebelius testifies before the House and admits that Obamacare is missing its enrollment goals by 90%. The Whitehouse continues to release data piece meal so the confusing mess continues. About 360K enrolled in the healthcare plan over the last 2 months but this is a long way from the 7 million goal needed by 3/31/13. At the same time, over 6 million folks have lost their insurance. To add insult to injury, Sebelius cannot guarantee that the people that are signed up actually have insurance since the payment part of Obamacare is not even developed as yet. President Obama’s legacy may be that he destroyed the U.S. healthcare system if he does not drastically turn things around quickly. A WSJ poll says 50% of America thinks Obamacare is a bad idea. Another poll shows that 70% of America thinks the country is on the wrong path. A majority of Americans now view President Obama as lacking in honesty and leadership. Pope Francis is named the Person of the Year by Time magazine. AMX loses -0.8% after a service outage occurs for over one hour. In the final couple hours of trading, concern grows as the bottom starts to fall out of the equity markets. The Nasdaq and RUT indexes are down in excess of 1% and dropping. At the bell, the SPX loses 20 points, -1.1%, to 1782. The SPX has moved through a sideways range of 1782-1808 for one month and now sits at the bottom rail. The Dow loses 130 points, -0.8%, to 15844. The Nasdaq loses 57 points, -1.4%, to 4004. The Nasdaq dropped under the 4K level but recovered back above in the final few minutes. The RUT pukes 18 points, -1.6%, to 1101. The RUT loses the 50-day MA. The small caps sell off for 3 consecutive days forecasting trouble. Trannies (TRAN) dump -1.6%. The VIX leaps higher to 15.42. Utilities are spanked lower as yields rise. Copper is a bright spot finishing up +0.8%. MA gains +4% on last evening’s happy news. EA -4.4%. NTAP -3.4%. P -7.1%. FB -1.7%. YHOO loses -2.7% with the email service now down for one day. Healthcare is beaten with LH losing -11%, DGX -4% and THC -3.1%. The Russia RSX ETF loses -1.6% ahead of the winter Olympics only one month away. After the bell, HLT, the Hilton Hotel IPO, prices at $20 per share and increases the size of the offer (number of shares). This is the largest IPO in the lodging sector ever and the second largest IPO this year. In AH’s trading, AET is crushed -13% and VRA loses -6% and is halted from trading. FB pops +4.3% AH’s when S&P announces that FaceBook will join both the S&P 100 and 500. The dollar/yen is 102.42. The euro is 1.3786. The 10-year yield is 2.85%. The weakness in small caps and potential China growth rate reduction create strong negativity today. Many traders cite fear over QE tapering as a reason for the selloff. Noted hawk Stanley Fisher, former head of the Bank of Israel, is named as the next Fed Vice Chair under Yellen and this news may have contributed to the market selloff. David Stockman, former budget director under President Reagan, says the budget deal is a “joke and betrayal.”
On Thursday, 12/12/13, Asia markets are down following the U.S. weakness yesterday. The dollar/yen is 102.77. AAPL iPhone 5S sales are robust in China boosting Apple as the third largest smartphone provider. Ukraine protestors retake Kiev Square. The weakness cascades into Europe with the major indexed down from -0.3% to -1.0%. Car maker Peugeot plummets. Slovenia banks need $3.5 billion to shore up troubled balance sheets. They can probably secure the funds internally and avoid asking for a euro zone bailout, for now. ECB’s Draghi promises that the bank stress tests will be credible and he will not hesitate to fail banks. The euro hits 1.38 overnight. PEP replaces KO as the beverage supplier for BWLD. F board pressures CEO Mulally to clarify his future plans since the daily drama is causing distractions. JPM faces a $2 billion deal to resolve the Madoff scandal litigation. U.S. futures are slightly negative in the early morning hours leading into the economic data releases. S&P -2. LULU lowers guidance and is slapped -11% pre-market. The Senate is in session all night long approving Obama nominees at a snail’s pace. The republicans are dragging out the approval process in retaliation against the democrats changing the long-standing traditional rules of the Senate where now only a simple majority of votes are required to approve nominees rather than 60 votes. Jobless Claims surge 68K higher to 368K. Retail Sales are better than expected. The 10-year yield moves higher to 2.87%. ORCL dumps -3% and is the weakest performer in the broad indexes as the trading day begins. CSCO is -0.5%. 6 IPO’s hit the market including HLT and AMRK. Equities are flat in the early going with gold dropping 27 bucks to 1230. Gold miners are also hit as the tax loss selling continues and the dollar index moves above 80. Business Inventories rise reinforcing the GDP number that shows the pipelines stocked with goods. Equities move sideways with a downward bias. At the bell, the SPX loses 7 points, -0.4%, to 1775. The Dow loses 104 points, -0.7%, to 15739, printing 2 consecutive triple digit down days. The Nasdaq drops 5 points, -0.1%, to 3998 losing the 4K level. The RUT finishes higher, up 2 points, +0.2%, to 1103 back testing the 50-day MA at 1105. The 10-year yield is 2.89% and interestingly, the 2-year yield begins moving higher, now at 0.33%. The House easily passes the new budget plan so it moves on to the Senate next week. The Whitehouse changes the Obamacare law again now extending the deadline to sign-up from 12/23/13 to 12/31/13 and encouraging insurance companies to accept partial payments. 6 million people have lost their insurance and limited days remain to make sure everyone is covered by the first of the year. The Obamacare mess worsens each day but the Whitehouse appears unworried, perhaps since it is dumping the responsibility and blame onto the backs of the insurance companies. North Korea executes Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek, as a traitor, creating unease in Asia.
On Friday, 12/13/13, the dollar/yen moves higher to 103.60 printing near 5-year highs so the Nikkei finishes higher and S&P futures are +6. GM plans on selling its entire stake in Peugeot creating a -9% selloff today for this European auto maker. Ireland is the first euro zone country to exit the bailout program but remains mired in debt. Ireland’s 10-year yield has dropped from over 15% at the height of the crisis to under 4%. Irish Finance Minister Michael Noonan says Ireland is the “weakest of the strong (countries).” Euro zone banking authorities warn about virtual currencies (bitcoin) which means regulations are likely coming in the future. Moody’s downgrades Puerto Rico’s debt rating to junk review. Pension obligations and high debt and deficits are sending Puerto Rico into a dire 2014. UTX lowers its 2014 forecast. BAC is bullish on 2014 calling for SPX 2000. PPI is in line with estimates showing the disinflationary and deflationary scenario remaining on the table. Dollar/yen drops to 103.05 (stronger yen) so the S&P future drop to +3 before the opening bell. The central bankers are the market; as the BOJ weakens the yen they send stocks higher and when the yen strengthens the markets weaken. Markets are flat to slightly higher as the Friday the 13th trading session begins. APC is slaughtered -12% due to a court ruling. CSCO drops -0.5% now near 7-month lows. TWTR continues the launch higher up +3% to 57. Twitter appears to be the new momo favorite. Utilities are weak creating a dark cloud over the broad indexes. TWTR nears 58. Schaeble will retain the finance minister position under the new German coalition government. GOOG announces plans to manufacture its own chips which would cut INTC out of the pie. AMZN is planning a new business called ‘Pantry’ that will compete with the big box consumer goods giants like COST and WMT (Sam’s Club). HON announces a $5 billion buyback so it pops over 1% but then fades as the day moves along. It is absolutely shameful to see the Fed’s easy money flipped into stock buybacks day after day to artificially pump stock prices higher making the wealthy wealthier while providing no help for the structurally unemployed. Equities move sideways all day long and end the day flat. The SPX sits on 1775 support. The Nasdaq ends at 4000.98. The RUT ends at 1107.05, a touch above the 50-day MA at 1106.07, setting up a bounce, or die, scenario for Monday morning. The VIX is 15.76 ending near the highs, and the CPCE put/call is climbing, so traders are seeking protection. The VIX is above the 200-day MA at 14.34 which is a very negative market signal. For the week, the SPX loses 30 points, -1.7%. The Dow dumps 265 points, -1.7%. The Nasdaq loses 62 points, -1.5%. The RUT drops 24 points, -2.2%. The broad indexes print the second consecutive down week. The SOX, semiconductors, lose -2.0% and the trannies, TRAN, are down -1.6%. The consumer staples, XLP, are smacked -1.9% this week with CLX -2.7%, PG -2.5% and KO -3.0%. Traders typically buy staples since they tend to be less affected during a broad market downturn so the selling indicates a continued lack of fear or worry in the markets. Instead, traders run to the high-flyers boosting FB +11%, TSLA +8% and TWTR +31% this week. If the markets continue lower all sectors will likely be hit indiscriminately. The broad indexes are weak this week in part due to the large amount of IPO’s that hit the market. More supply means lower prices (the stock must be absorbed by the market). After the bell, TMUS jumps +7% and S shares +10% on a takeover bid from Sprint. The combination would create a competitive third player in the telecom space. GE boosts the dividend 16%; 22 cents. GS says the dollar will decline in 2014. Jerusalem receives several inches of snow (10 cm and more) which is a once in multi-decade event. News hits the wires concerning a potential collision between U.S. and China warships that occurred one week ago in the disputed Japan island zone in the South China Sea. The incident increases the tensions in the Asia theatre. A Wichita, Kansas, airport employee turned terrorist is arrested for plotting a suicide car bombing. A school shooting occurs in Colorado by another person with mental issues. GOOG completes the Boston Dynamics acquisition which is a company that designs and supplies robots for the Pentagon.
On Saturday, 12/14/13, China joins the ranks of the U.S. and Russia landing a spacecraft on the moon. The unmanned craft will release a solar-powered robot which will conduct geological testing. In recent days, ‘pitchfork protests’ are increasing in Italy and now ongoing across the entire country including Rome. Hundreds of protestors, mostly students, battled police and set off firecrackers near a meeting of the government ministers. Italians are fed up with high unemployment, falling incomes and political scandals. The pitchfork symbolism, now a call to battle for Italian farmers, truckers, business owners and citizens, started with the Sicilian farmers that are protesting rising taxes and cuts to the agricultural funds. The Ukraine top political circle unravels as officials are blamed for inciting violence against Kiev protestors. The social unrest around the world increases daily. Uganda’s largest copper smelter is damaged after a power outage. The Obamacare enrollment is approaching 400K but over 6 million have had their policies cancelled because of the new law and need to find insurance within the next 2 weeks. Asia, Europe and U.S. Flash PMI’s.
On Sunday, 12/15/13, Nelson Mandela is buried at his final resting place. There are 9 days (1 week) remaining in the holiday shopping season until Christmas and 16 days until the EOY. There are 11 trading days remaining in the year.
On Monday, 12/16/13, Empire State Mfg Index. Productivity and Costs. TIC data. Industrial Production.
On Tuesday, 12/17/13, Germany’s new coalition government is sworn in and functioning. FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Is QE taper talk on the table? CPI. Housing Market Index. 2-Year Note Auction. A full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon. Markets are typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high during OpEx week.
On Wednesday, 12/18/13, Mortgage Applications. Housing Starts. Oil Inventories. 5-Year Note Auction. FOMC Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM which will create a market pivot point. Chairman Bernanke Press Conference and Q&A from 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM will move markets. This is the last press conference meeting for Bernanke. The Senate begins debate on the budget bill and will conduct a vote as soon as possible since they want to begin their holiday vacations.
On Thursday, 12/19/13, BOJ 2-day meeting begins. European Summit begins. Jobless Claims. Philly Fed, Leading Indicators and Existing Home Sales 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories. 5-Year TIPS Auction. 7-Year Note Auction.
On Friday, 12/20/13, BOJ rate and policy decision. OpEx Quadruple Witching. GDP. Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 12/21/13, ….
On Sunday, 12/22/13, ….
On Monday, 12/23/13, Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM will create a market pivot point.
On Tuesday, 12/24/13, Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House Price Index. New Home Sales. Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Markets Close Early for Christmas Eve.
On Wednesday, 12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of Christmas holiday.
On Thursday, 12/26/13, Markets Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil Inventories.
On Friday, 12/27/13, Natty Gas Inventories.
On Saturday, 12/28/13, …..
On Sunday, 12/29/13, …..
On Monday, 12/30/13, Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.
On Tuesday, 12/31/13, EOM. EOQ4. EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Gold is down on the year for the first time this century. The initial sign-up period for Obamacare ends (extended from 12/15/13 and then from 12/23/13) for those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse is dumping the Obamacare problem onto the health insurance companies and doctors since they will be providing care in January to folks that either do not have insurance or may have only paid a partial payment for insurance. Serves them right since many supported the new law and helped create the debacle.
----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------
On Wednesday, 1/1/14, Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the year may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Thursday, 1/2/14, Asia PMI’s. Europe PMI’s. Markets Reopen for Trading. Motor Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed).
On Friday, 1/3/14, …Europe must finalize all plans for the new banking union by March.
On Thursday, 1/9/14, a Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the 1/2/14 through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one way of the other.
On Wednesday, 1/15/14, a Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the U.S. government open (this may be resolved by the Senate vote on 12/18/13 or 12/19/13).
On Thursday, 1/16/14, a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon.
On Tuesday, 1/28/14, President Obama provides the State of the Union speech in the evening.
On Wednesday, 1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29) as Chair of the FOMC.
On Friday, 1/31/14, Chairman Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New Chair Yellen takes over.
On Friday, 2/7/14, the Debt Ceiling Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury Secretary Lew will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so late February or early March is a likelier deadline. Winter Olympics begin in Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
On Saturday, 3/15/14, the deadline for the Obamacare sign up period ends. The Whitehouse needs 7 million people (mainly healthy young people) to sign-up by today or the program will be bleeding money profusely and require a taxpayer bailout.
On Wednesday, 3/19/14, new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
In February/March, Fed Chair Yellen testifies before Congress.
In February/March, the German High Court must rule on the constitutionality of the OMT program. The decision is delayed from the Fall 2013. Many German citizens believe the OMT is simply a backdoor mechanism to fund other countries.
In February/March and forward, European bank stress tests are ongoing and will take one year to complete (there are likely 10% of the 128 banks undercapitalized with no clear way on how to recapitalize these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is chosen to keep stretching things out in the hope that the European economy recovers before further bad news occurs.
In March, the ESM is officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
In April, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.
In June, employer mandate provisions begin for Obamacare with many workers likely forced into part-time 30 hours per week or less employment.
On Tuesday, 11/4/14, mid-term elections. The 2-year presidential race for 2016 begins.
On Saturday, 11/15/14, the enrollment period for Obamacare in 2015 begins (pushed forward from 10/15/14 by the Whitehouse and democrats; voters will now not experience the sticker shock of higher insurance premiums, since too few healthy young people are signing up to support the program, until after the election).
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