On Friday, 12/6/13, futures
are positive in the early morning with S&P’s +7. The dollar/yen is inching higher to 102.20 which creates lift in the NIKK.
Vice president Biden wraps up the China visit urging a resolution to the Japan island
dispute. Biden’s next stop is S. Korea.
Abe takes the lead and requests a summit with China to address the rising
tensions in Asia. Smog in Shanghai is at the highest extremely hazardous
levels. Thousands of mourners
gather outside Mandela’s house to pay respect. North
Sea ports close due to severe storms. GM will stop offering the Chevy brand in
Europe. DB exits commodity trading leaving GS as the main player involved
in the commodities sectors. The Bundesbank
raises growth estimates and says Europe is recovering. The euro remains elevated at 1.3667. AEO is -5.6%
pre-market. Congress is one week away from the deadline to develop a budget
agreement and the news is encouraging from Capitol Hill that a 2-year deal may announced
next week. The Monthly Jobs Report is stellar with 203K jobs, 7.0%
unemployment rate (lowest since the
December 2008 market crash, 5 years ago),
both average hours worked and wages are up and the labor participation rate
moves up a touch to 63% but holding
at the 3-decade lows. Interestingly, 41% of the jobs created are
government jobs. Markets react violently in both directions. The 10-year yield jumps to 2.93% but quickly
retreats to 2.87% where it was before the number. 10 minutes after the
release and markets are where they were before the report but as time ticks by equities catch
a strong bid and by 9 AM EST the S&P’s are +17, Dow +105 and Nasdaq +29.
The bulls
are running. Volatility drops. The
broad
indexes leap higher at the opening bell with the SPX printing up over 1800 and
Dow over 16K. Consumer Sentiment is 82.5 at the summer time highs. Fed’s Plosser says “we need to begin to get rid
of QE,” but no one pays attention. ULTA -21%. JCP -8.7%. The tape is strong today. Volatility
remains low under 14 and the dollar/yen
jumps higher to 102.85 creating the bull fuel for the stock market. Natty
gas is 4.11 remaining at a 6 month high. Interestingly, the high-flyers like AAPL,
FB, NFLX and TSLA are all sold off today ending negative. GPS -3% losing last evenings luster. GOOG prints a new all-time high at 1070. Bitcoin
drops to 877 after BIDU says it will not accept bitcoin for payments. At
the bell, the SPX
gains 20 points, +1.1%, to 1805, halting the 5-day losing streak.
The Dow
gains 199 points, +1.3%, to 16020 as the dividend stock bubble is pumped.
XLP jumps +1.4% as traders think they
will be safer in the staples (tooth paste, toilet paper, soap, etc…) if a
market down turn occurs. They will likely not be. The Nasdaq is up 29 points, +0.7%, to 4063
with a hanging man candlestick printing on the daily chart. The RUT is up 9
points +0.8%, to 1131. Tech and small caps lag the broader market up
move. Trannies also underperform at +0.6%. For the week, the SPX is a hair lower reversing the 8-week
winning streak. The Dow is negative on the week losing -0.4% and its 8-week
winning streak. The Nasdaq is a
single hair positive on the week with the RUT small caps down -1.1% this week.
The overall bullish market vibe continues with long trader’s high-fiving each
other without any fear of market downside ahead. The 10-year
yield is 2.88%. Dollar/yen 102.90. The euro hits 1.37 which will limit
Europe’s ability to recover. The USD dollar basket weakens to 80.27 on the stronger
euro. The pound is 1.6347. Long traders need to send a thank you note to the BOJ since the bludgeoning of the yen today,
-1.1%, driving the dollar/yen higher to 102.90, was the main driver of the
higher stock market. Banzai!! The central
bankers are the market and the Fed
and BOJ have been tag-teaming in recent days, taking turns at pumping the stock
market higher. It took 6 Fed POMO pumps this week to prevent the stock market
from dropping and another 6 POMO pumps
are planned for next week.
On Saturday, 12/7/13,
North Korea frees the American vet held hostage.
South Africa announces 10 days of mourning over Mandela’s death. The Obamacare mess
continues with growing concern that folks will have a lapse in coverage
starting January 1st due to the poor functionality of the website and program in general. The Whitehouse is aware of this problem but has
not sent letters to warn people. Many folks think they signed up for
insurance, but they are actually not covered. Based on current projections,
there may actually be more folks that have lost health insurance than gained
insurance come January 1st. A poll shows that about 75% of young folks, 3
out of 4, are either unlikely to enroll, or on the fence at 50/50 concerning
enrolling, for Obamacare. The program will likely have to be bailed out by the
taxpayer in the future. The Obama Administration will allow wind farms to continue
killing and injuring bald eagles for the next 30 years for the sake of boosting
green energy. The turbine blade tips reach speeds of over 170 MPH and kill
dozens of bald eagles each year. The action will send wind energy stock
prices higher.
---------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 12/8/13,
Japan
approves a new secrecy law that allows
defense information to be exchanged easier between the U.S. and Japan in light
of the growing tensions with China. The law
is obviously implemented to place a muzzle on any news concerning the ongoing
Fukishima nuclear disaster. An Asahi
newspaper poll shows Abe’s approval
rating dropping under 50%. Frigid
cold temperatures and ice, snow and sleet storms move across the States
claiming 6 deaths. China exports beat expectations although imports are
lagging hinting that the global environment is experiencing a spurt
of activity but the China domestic
economy remains challenged. The Ukraine protests intensify as a ‘million man
march’ occurs with hundreds of thousands of protestors taking to the
streets. A statue of Lenin is toppled and the head is cut off emphasizing support for the EU as a path forward rather
than Russia. Authorities become
concerned that a coup will overthrow the government. Thai Prime
Minister Yingluck dissolves parliament under pressure from protestors and calls
for snap elections. Elections are promised by 2/2/14 but the anti-government protestors remain in the
streets with about 150K demonstrators marching in Bangkok. A riot breaks out in Singapore, the first
unrest in over 40 years, when a bus runs over and kills an Indian worker.
Singapore has a large Indian population. Anti-riot
forces attempt to calm the crowds but police cars are overturned and nearly 20
people are injured including 10 police officers. The social unrest increases around the world, especially
as the global central banker easy money policies make the rich richer at the
expense of common citizens.
On Monday, 12/9/13,
Aussie’s QBE (insurance) is whacked -23%. Japan’s growth is much weaker than expected
at a GDP of 1.1% down from the prior 1.9% reading. The BOJ easy money is not used for business investment but instead for
buybacks to pump the stock market higher, just like the U.S. Japan
markets play catch-up to the U.S. Friday upside orgy, and the BOJ weakens the yen, sending the dollar/yen
to 103.10, creating a +2.3% jump in the NIKK overnight. Kospi is +1%.
Shanghai finishes flat. India’s BSE
prints at historic highs. North Korea’s Kim Jong-il flexes his muscles booting his uncle from the upper
circle of power. Tech companies MSFT,
GOOG, AAPL, YHOO, TWTR, AOL and LNKD join together complaining to the
government about the ongoing surveillance and invasive activity of customer
accounts. These companies already sold their souls. Everyone must realize that whatever you do electronically, via
computers or cell phones, is monitored, recorded and archived forever; this is
the way it will always be. HSBC may
split off a banking unit so it pops higher. German export orders are stronger than
expected. The euro hits a high at 1.3748 and euro/yen is at 1.4140. The pound is
1.6389. Samaras boasts of a ‘historic
day’ as Greece passes a 2014 budget, however, the Troika will meet this
week and have to sign off on the plan. The 10-year yield is at 2.85%. House and
Senate leaders work towards a budget agreement by Friday but it will simply
result in more can-kicking without any serious attempt to control spending or
reduce the growing size of the Federal government. The U.S.
Attorney’s Office is considering a fine against JPM for not reporting the
Madoff scandal since the suspicious activity was very obvious. Emails and documents surface that show JPM,
and potentially several other banks, received preferential business treatment
because they employed the sons and daughters of Chinese officials. Traders,
however, continue to believe that financials will lead equities higher and JPM is +0.4% pre-market. MCD is -0.4%
pre-market after reporting mixed sales results. Natty gas is 4.19 remaining elevated due to
the frigid temperatures across the States. The broad
indexes pop higher at the opening bell albeit marginally. Copper moves
higher helping create market buoyancy. GOOG prints another new all-time high above
1077. Ex-GS trader Matthew Taylor is sentenced to 9 months prison
time for covering up huge trading losses to protect his bonus. What a rookie;
if he was a higher-up GS executive he would not do any jail time. AMTD says the bullishness among traders is at the highest
level in 2 years (typically a contrarian signal). VIX moves above 14. Household net worth hits a record high in
Q3 which is no surprise since the Fed and other central bankers are pumping the stock
market which makes the wealthy wealthier,
and sends the average net worth higher. Equities
remain bullish through lunch time into the afternoon session. BBRY -2.2% printing new record lows. Over one-half of
the skiers hitting the ski slopes in the States are families with incomes over
100K. The middle class is priced out of
the winter fun. Public golf courses are
feeling similar pressure as the middle class struggles and prefers to spend
their hard-earned cash on food and other necessities instead of expensive fun
that only the Bernanke-supported wealthy can afford. The broad indexes finish flat to slightly positive trading in
a tight range all day long. The SPX prints a new all-time closing high at 1808.37 but
not a new all-time intraday high. The Dow remains above 16K. The Nasdaq
prints new 13-year highs closing at 4069.
RUT small
caps trade lower all day long and finish negative. Copper, trannies and semiconductors all help keep the
markets elevated. Fed’s Lacker and Fisher are open to the idea of tapering but traders are too drunk on the easy money wine and no
one pays attention. Fisher was a strong hawk that turned into a dove, now he
tries to reverse again to a hawkish stance.
On Tuesday, 12/10/13,
Shanghai continues to tell parents to keep children
indoors from the air pollution for 7 consecutive days. The dollar/yen
drops slightly to 103.10 (stronger yen) so
the NIKK finishes slightly negative.
Asia stocks are flat to down. BOE’s Carney says the U.K. recovery depends on the
European partners. Carney also says the constant can-kicking by the U.S. on budget
and government funding policies will hurt the country longer term. France industrial production numbers are
weak reflecting a very sick economy. Presidents Obama, Bush, Clinton
and Carter attend funeral ceremonies for Nelson Mandela in South Africa. The 10-year yield drops to 2.82%. NFIB
Small Business Optimism Index is encouraging as businesses slightly increase
hiring. The JOLTS Report shows another
marginal increase in job openings. The Volcker
rule is approved but banks are already looking for loopholes and do not expect
too much disruption. XLF is slightly higher
today so banks do not appear worried. PEP dumps -12% on
weak numbers. IEP (Icahn) drops -10%. TOL
jumps +3% beating on earnings but orders are flat showing a ‘leveling off of demand’ and indicating that higher house prices are cutting into
sales. LULU founder Chip Wilson steps down after commenting that the
see-through yoga pants problem was due to women’s plump body shapes, that the product
is not intended for, and not the pants design. LULU
jumps +2.4%. WMT names David Cheesewright as the new CEO. GM
names Mary Barra as the new CEO; the first female CEO in the global automobile
industry. The 10-year yield drops to
2.80%. The ECB says there is no hurry to add stimulus
so the euro moves higher towards 1.38. The dollar/yen drops to 102.80 (stronger yen) so the S&P futures drop 7 handles over the 4-hour period
before the opening bell. Equities are weak as
the regular trading session begins but volatility
remains low so the bears cannot develop any downside energy. IMF says signs of
growth in Europe are emerging. Equities finish
lower on the day. The SPX ends at
1803. The Dow is 15973 back
under 16K. The RUT dumps -0.8% to 1120. TWTR gains +5.8% closing at 51.99 with an intraday high
at 52.58 as traders chase the latest favorite son. After the bell, HRB is taxed -5%. SWHC shoots
+5.6% higher on strong earnings. ABBV jumps
higher on encouraging hepatitis C drug results which slams biotech favorite
GILD 0-3.2%. MA
gains +1.4% after announcing a 10 for 1 stock split, an 83% increase in
the divvy and an increased stock buyback program. Uruguay is the first country
to legalize marijuana for recreational use setting up the first regulated market
for pot. Congressional
budget negotiators Ryan and Murray reach a tentative 2-year agreement to avert a
government shutdown in 2014. S&P
futures gain +3 with a muted reaction to the budget agreement. Investor Charles Schwab says the stock market will
run to Dow 20K within a couple years. Schwab
says there are no asset bubbles and equities are supported by a strong economy.
The bullishness is rampant across Wall Street. The CPC and CPCE put/call ratios continue to print
lows showing uber complacency and lack of fear in the markets.
On Wednesday,
12/11/13, the NIKK dumps -0.6% since the yen is stronger and the
dollar/yen drops to 102.55. The SSEC drops -1.5% on a rumor that China’s
7.5% growth rate may be reduced to 7.0%. China yuan trades at a 20-year
high. The Ukraine protests continue with injuries occurring daily. Government authorities remove protestors from Kiev Square. The EU wants to develop a bailout package to
help Ukraine but Germany is not warm to
the idea. Eurozone ministers agree on a
banking union outline but talks have a long way to go to meet their
deadline goal by the end of the year. Inditex (European retailer) profits are
in line but sales are challenged due to the elevated euro. German manufacturers continue to voice concern over the strong euro.
The euro is 1.3763 continuing a strong ascent; the pound is 1.6415. The IEA increases the 2014 oil demand forecast. S&P downgrades
the U.S. growth forecast. The 10-year yield softens to 2.81%. Traders and analysts study the proposed budget deal more closely and discover
that the deal is simply more can-kicking
with no serious attempt to actually reduce debt and spending. Politicians
are painted as Grinch’s and Scrooge’s since unemployment benefits will not be
extended under the budget plan. S&P futures
are -3 early morning on the east coast. COST
misses on earnings so it is punished -2.7%. Global bellwether JOY misses and it
is beaten -4.5%. WFC upgrades GRPN which
pops +1%. AVON -3.7%. P drops -3% after Spotify buys the rights to the Led Zeppelin song
catalog and increases its mobile offerings. AVNR
is downgraded due to disappointing MS drug trial results and is bludgeoned
-25%. Mortgage Applications rise a
touch above the flat line reversing a 5-week slide. Investors Intelligence (AAII) Sentiment Survey
shows the bullish percent at near 60%, an obscenely multi-year high level, with bearish
sentiment continuing to drop now down at 14%. Bulls are outnumbering bears
by 4 to 1. The AAII Survey circulates across trading desks since it is a reliable contrarian indicator (the
excessive bullishness and lack of bearishness typically identifies market tops).
Futures move to the flat line before the opening bell but as the trading session opens and progresses, the broad
markets leak solidly lower. Oil Inventories drop but oil price moves
lower instead of higher. 10-Year Note
Auction is not particularly well received and the yield creeps higher to 2.83%. The broad indexes continue selling off. HHS Secretary Sebelius testifies before the House and
admits that Obamacare is missing its enrollment goals by 90%. The Whitehouse continues to release data piece
meal so the confusing mess
continues. About 360K enrolled in the
healthcare plan over the last 2 months but this is a long way from the 7 million goal needed by 3/31/13. At the same
time, over 6 million folks have lost
their insurance. To add insult to injury, Sebelius cannot guarantee that the people that are signed up actually
have insurance since the payment part of Obamacare is not even developed as
yet. President Obama’s legacy may be that he destroyed the U.S. healthcare
system if he does not drastically turn things around quickly. A WSJ poll says 50% of America thinks Obamacare is a bad
idea. Another poll shows that 70% of
America thinks the country is on the wrong path. A majority of Americans now view
President Obama as lacking in honesty and leadership. Pope
Francis is named the Person of the Year by Time magazine. AMX loses -0.8% after a service outage occurs for over
one hour. In the final couple hours of trading, concern grows as the bottom starts to fall out
of the equity markets. The Nasdaq and RUT indexes are down in excess of 1% and dropping.
At the bell, the SPX loses 20 points, -1.1%, to 1782. The SPX has moved through a sideways range of 1782-1808 for one month
and now sits at the bottom rail. The Dow loses 130 points, -0.8%, to 15844. The Nasdaq loses 57
points, -1.4%, to 4004. The Nasdaq
dropped under the 4K level but recovered back above in the final few
minutes. The RUT
pukes 18 points, -1.6%, to 1101. The RUT loses the 50-day MA. The small caps sell off for 3 consecutive days forecasting
trouble. Trannies (TRAN) dump -1.6%. The VIX leaps higher to 15.42. Utilities are spanked lower as yields rise. Copper is a
bright spot finishing up +0.8%. MA gains +4% on last evening’s happy
news. EA -4.4%. NTAP -3.4%. P -7.1%. FB -1.7%. YHOO
loses -2.7% with the email service now down for one day. Healthcare is
beaten with LH losing -11%, DGX -4% and THC
-3.1%. The Russia RSX ETF loses -1.6%
ahead of the winter Olympics only
one month away. After the bell, HLT,
the Hilton Hotel IPO, prices at $20
per share and increases the size of the offer (number of shares). This is
the largest IPO in the lodging sector ever and the second largest IPO this
year. In AH’s trading, AET is crushed -13% and VRA
loses -6% and is halted from trading. FB
pops +4.3% AH’s when S&P announces that FaceBook will join both the S&P 100 and 500. The dollar/yen is 102.42. The euro
is 1.3786. The 10-year yield is
2.85%. The weakness
in small caps and potential China growth rate reduction create strong negativity today. Many traders cite
fear over QE tapering as a reason for the selloff. Noted hawk Stanley Fisher, former head of
the Bank of Israel, is named as the next Fed Vice Chair under Yellen and
this news may have contributed to the
market selloff. David Stockman, former budget director under President Reagan, says the
budget deal is a “joke and betrayal.”
On Thursday,
12/12/13, Asia
markets are down following the U.S. weakness
yesterday. The dollar/yen is 102.77. AAPL iPhone 5S sales are robust in China
boosting Apple as the third largest smartphone provider. Ukraine protestors retake Kiev Square. The weakness cascades into Europe with the major
indexed down from -0.3% to -1.0%. Car maker Peugeot plummets. Slovenia banks need $3.5 billion to shore
up troubled balance sheets. They can probably secure the funds internally
and avoid asking for a euro zone bailout, for now. ECB’s Draghi promises that the bank stress tests will be credible and he will not hesitate to fail banks. The euro hits 1.38 overnight. PEP
replaces KO as the beverage supplier for BWLD. F board pressures CEO Mulally to
clarify his future plans since the daily drama is causing distractions. JPM faces a $2 billion deal to resolve the Madoff
scandal litigation. U.S. futures are slightly negative in the early
morning hours leading into the economic data releases. S&P
-2. LULU lowers guidance and is slapped -11%
pre-market. The Senate is in session all night long
approving Obama nominees at a snail’s pace. The republicans are dragging out
the approval process in retaliation against the democrats changing the
long-standing traditional rules of the Senate where now only a simple majority
of votes are required to approve nominees rather than 60 votes. Jobless Claims surge
68K higher to 368K. Retail Sales are better than expected. The 10-year
yield moves higher to 2.87%. ORCL dumps -3% and is the weakest performer in the
broad indexes as the trading day begins. CSCO is -0.5%.
6 IPO’s hit the market including HLT
and AMRK. Equities
are flat in the early going with gold
dropping 27 bucks to 1230. Gold
miners are also hit as the tax loss
selling continues and the dollar
index moves above 80. Business
Inventories rise reinforcing the GDP number that shows the pipelines
stocked with goods. Equities move sideways with a downward bias. At the bell,
the SPX loses 7
points, -0.4%, to 1775. The Dow loses 104
points, -0.7%, to 15739, printing 2 consecutive triple digit down
days. The Nasdaq
drops 5 points, -0.1%, to 3998 losing the 4K
level. The RUT finishes higher, up 2 points,
+0.2%, to 1103 back testing the 50-day MA at 1105. The 10-year yield is 2.89% and
interestingly, the 2-year yield begins
moving higher, now at 0.33%. The House easily passes the new budget plan so it moves on to
the Senate next week. The Whitehouse
changes the Obamacare law again now extending
the deadline to sign-up from 12/23/13 to 12/31/13 and encouraging insurance companies to accept partial payments. 6 million people have lost their insurance and
limited days remain to make sure everyone is covered by the first of the year. The
Obamacare mess worsens each day but the
Whitehouse appears unworried,
perhaps since it is dumping the
responsibility and blame onto the backs of the insurance companies. North Korea
executes Kim Jong-un’s uncle, Jang Song-thaek, as a traitor, creating unease in Asia.
On Friday, 12/13/13, the
dollar/yen
moves higher to 103.60 printing near 5-year highs so the Nikkei
finishes higher and S&P futures are
+6. GM plans on
selling its entire stake in Peugeot
creating a -9% selloff today for this European auto maker. Ireland is the first euro zone country to
exit the bailout program but remains
mired in debt. Ireland’s 10-year yield has dropped from over 15% at the
height of the crisis to under 4%. Irish Finance
Minister Michael Noonan says Ireland is the “weakest of the strong
(countries).” Euro zone banking authorities warn about virtual currencies
(bitcoin) which means regulations are likely coming in the future. Moody’s
downgrades Puerto Rico’s debt rating to junk review. Pension obligations and high debt and deficits
are sending Puerto Rico into a dire 2014. UTX
lowers its 2014 forecast. BAC is
bullish on 2014 calling for SPX 2000. PPI is in line with estimates showing
the disinflationary and deflationary scenario remaining on the table. Dollar/yen
drops to 103.05 (stronger yen) so
the S&P
future drop to +3 before the opening
bell. The central bankers are the
market; as the BOJ weakens the yen they send stocks higher and when the
yen strengthens the markets weaken. Markets are flat to slightly higher
as the Friday the 13th
trading session begins. APC is slaughtered -12% due to a court ruling. CSCO drops -0.5% now near 7-month lows.
TWTR
continues the launch higher up +3% to 57. Twitter appears to be the new
momo favorite. Utilities are weak creating a dark cloud over the broad indexes.
TWTR nears 58. Schaeble will
retain the finance minister position under the new German coalition government.
GOOG announces plans to manufacture its
own chips which would cut INTC out of the pie. AMZN is planning a new
business called ‘Pantry’ that will compete with the big box consumer goods
giants like COST and WMT (Sam’s Club). HON
announces a $5 billion buyback so it pops over 1% but then fades as the
day moves along. It is absolutely shameful to see the Fed’s easy money flipped into
stock buybacks day after day to artificially pump stock prices higher making
the wealthy wealthier while providing no help for the structurally unemployed.
Equities
move sideways all day long and end the day flat. The SPX sits on 1775 support. The Nasdaq
ends at 4000.98. The RUT ends at
1107.05, a touch above the 50-day MA at 1106.07, setting up a bounce, or die,
scenario for Monday morning. The VIX is 15.76 ending near the highs, and the
CPCE put/call is climbing, so traders are seeking protection. The VIX is above the
200-day MA at 14.34 which is a very negative market signal. For the week, the SPX loses 30 points, -1.7%. The Dow dumps 265
points, -1.7%. The Nasdaq loses 62 points, -1.5%. The RUT drops 24
points, -2.2%. The broad indexes print the second consecutive down
week. The SOX, semiconductors, lose -2.0% and the
trannies, TRAN, are down -1.6%. The consumer staples,
XLP, are smacked -1.9% this week with CLX -2.7%, PG -2.5% and KO -3.0%.
Traders typically buy staples since they tend to be less affected during a
broad market downturn so the selling indicates a continued lack of fear or
worry in the markets. Instead, traders run to the
high-flyers boosting FB +11%, TSLA +8%
and TWTR +31% this week. If the markets continue lower all sectors
will likely be hit indiscriminately. The broad
indexes are weak this week in part due to the large amount of IPO’s that
hit the market. More supply means lower
prices (the stock must be absorbed by the market). After the bell, TMUS jumps +7% and S shares +10% on a takeover bid
from Sprint. The combination would create a competitive third player in the telecom space. GE boosts the dividend 16%; 22 cents. GS says the dollar will decline in 2014.
Jerusalem receives several inches of snow (10 cm and
more) which is a once in multi-decade event. News hits the
wires concerning a potential collision
between U.S. and China warships that occurred one week ago in the disputed Japan island zone in the South China Sea. The incident increases the tensions in the Asia theatre. A Wichita,
Kansas, airport employee turned terrorist is arrested for plotting a suicide car
bombing. A school shooting occurs in
Colorado by another person with mental issues. GOOG completes the Boston
Dynamics acquisition which is a company that designs and supplies robots for
the Pentagon.
On Saturday,
12/14/13, China
joins the ranks of the U.S. and Russia landing a spacecraft on the moon. The unmanned craft will release a solar-powered robot
which will conduct geological testing. In
recent days, ‘pitchfork protests’ are
increasing in Italy and now ongoing across the entire country including Rome.
Hundreds of protestors, mostly students,
battled police and set off firecrackers near a meeting of the government
ministers. Italians are fed up with
high unemployment, falling incomes and political scandals. The pitchfork symbolism, now a call to battle
for Italian farmers, truckers, business owners and citizens, started with
the Sicilian farmers that are protesting
rising taxes and cuts to the agricultural funds. The Ukraine top political circle unravels as officials are
blamed for inciting violence against Kiev protestors. The social unrest around the world increases
daily. Uganda’s largest copper smelter is damaged after a power outage. The Obamacare enrollment
is approaching 400K but over 6
million have had their policies cancelled because of the new law and need to find insurance within the next 2
weeks. Asia, Europe and U.S. Flash PMI’s.
-----------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 12/15/13,
Nelson Mandela is buried at his final resting place. There are 9 days (1 week) remaining in the holiday
shopping season until Christmas and 16 days until the EOY. There are 11 trading days remaining in the year.
On Monday, 12/16/13,
Empire State Mfg Index. Productivity
and Costs. TIC data. Industrial
Production.
On Tuesday, 12/17/13,
Germany’s new coalition government is sworn in
and functioning. FOMC 2-day meeting begins. Is QE taper talk on the table? CPI. Housing Market Index. 2-Year Note Auction. A full moon
occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full moon. Markets are
typically bullish from a Tuesday low to a Wednesday high during OpEx week.
On Wednesday, 12/18/13,
Mortgage Applications. Housing Starts. Oil Inventories. 5-Year Note
Auction. FOMC
Meeting Announcement and Forecasts 2 PM
which will create a market pivot point. Chairman Bernanke Press
Conference and Q&A from 2:30 PM to 3:30 PM will move markets. This is the last press conference meeting for Bernanke.
The Senate
begins debate on the budget bill and will conduct a vote as soon as possible since they want to begin their holiday vacations.
On Thursday, 12/19/13,
BOJ 2-day meeting begins. European Summit begins. Jobless Claims. Philly Fed, Leading Indicators and Existing
Home Sales 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Natty Gas Inventories.
5-Year TIPS Auction. 7-Year Note Auction.
On Friday, 12/20/13,
BOJ rate
and policy decision. OpEx Quadruple
Witching. GDP.
Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations. Kansas City Fed Mfg Index.
On Saturday, 12/21/13, ….
----------------------------------------------------------
On Sunday, 12/22/13, ….
On Monday, 12/23/13,
Personal Income and Outlays. Chicago
Fed National Activity Index. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM
will create a market pivot point.
On Tuesday, 12/24/13,
Durable Goods Orders. FHFA House
Price Index. New Home Sales.
Richmond Fed Mfg Index. Markets Close Early for Christmas Eve.
On Wednesday,
12/25/13, Markets are Closed in Observance of
Christmas holiday.
On Thursday,
12/26/13, Markets
Reopen for Trading. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Oil
Inventories.
On Friday, 12/27/13,
Natty Gas Inventories.
On Saturday, 12/28/13, …..
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On Sunday, 12/29/13, …..
On Monday, 12/30/13,
Pending Home Sales Index. Dallas Fed Mfg Survey. Farm Prices.
On Tuesday, 12/31/13,
EOM. EOQ4.
EOY2013. S&P Case-Shiller. Chicago
PMI 9:45 AM will create a market pivot. Consumer Confidence 10 AM will create a market pivot point. Gold is down on
the year for the first time this century. The initial
sign-up period for Obamacare ends (extended
from 12/15/13 and then from 12/23/13) for
those beginning insurance on 1/1/14. The Whitehouse is dumping the Obamacare problem onto the health insurance companies
and doctors since they will be providing care in January to folks that either
do not have insurance or may have only paid a partial payment for insurance.
Serves them right since many supported the new law and helped create the
debacle.
----------------------------- 2014 ----------------------
On Wednesday, 1/1/14,
Markets are Closed in Observance of New Years
holiday. A major Bradley turn date occurs where a major market
directional move is expected in the 12/23/13 through 1/8/14 time frame. The
Bradley turn does not predict direction, only that a strong move will occur one
way of the other. Another Bradley turns in quick order so the beginning of the
year may be a wild ride for the stock market. A new moon occurs. Markets are
typically bearish moving through the new moon.
On Thursday, 1/2/14, Asia PMI’s. Europe
PMI’s. Markets Reopen for Trading.
Motor Vehicle Sales. Mortgage Applications. Jobless Claims. Natty Gas
Inventories. Oil Inventories (one-day delayed).
On Friday, 1/3/14,
…Europe must
finalize all plans for the new banking union by March.
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On Thursday, 1/9/14, a
Bradley turn date occurs where a market directional move is expected in the
1/2/14 through 1/16/14 time frame. The Bradley turn does not predict direction,
only that a strong move will occur one way of the other.
---------------------------------------------------------
On Wednesday,
1/15/14, a Continuing Resolution (CR) is needed to fund and keep the
U.S. government open (this may be resolved by the Senate vote on 12/18/13 or
12/19/13).
On Thursday, 1/16/14,
a full moon occurs. Markets are typically bullish moving through the full
moon.
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On Tuesday, 1/28/14, President Obama provides the State of the Union speech in
the evening.
On Wednesday,
1/29/14, Chairman Bernanke conducts his last
official two-day meeting (1/28 and 1/29)
as Chair of the FOMC.
On Friday, 1/31/14,
Chairman
Bernanke’s term ends at the Fed. New
Chair Yellen takes over.
-----------------------------------------------------
On Friday, 2/7/14, the Debt Ceiling
Limit is hit where the U.S. may default on obligations. Treasury Secretary Lew
will use extraordinary measures to extend this time forward so late February or
early March is a likelier deadline. Winter Olympics begin in
Sochi, Russia, through 2/23/14.
----------------------------------------------------
On Saturday, 3/15/14, the deadline for
the Obamacare sign up period ends. The Whitehouse
needs 7 million people (mainly healthy young people) to sign-up by today or the
program will be bleeding money profusely and require a taxpayer bailout.
----------------------------------------------------
On Wednesday, 3/19/14,
new Fed Chair Yellen talks at the conclusion of her
first FOMC meeting (3/18 and 3/19).
In February/March, Fed Chair Yellen testifies before Congress.
In February/March, the German High
Court must rule on the constitutionality of the OMT program. The decision is delayed from the Fall
2013. Many German citizens believe the OMT is simply a backdoor mechanism to
fund other countries.
In February/March and
forward, European
bank stress tests are ongoing and will take one year to complete (there are likely
10% of the 128 banks undercapitalized with no clear way on how to
recapitalize these troubled institutions). The one-year timeline is chosen to
keep stretching things out in the hope that the European economy recovers
before further bad news occurs.
In March, the ESM is
officially “fully operational.” The Euro banking union is in place after
delays from January 2013 to January 2014 and now to March 2014.
In April, MSFT no longer supports Windows XP.
In June, employer
mandate provisions begin for Obamacare with many workers likely forced into
part-time 30 hours per week or less employment.
On Tuesday, 11/4/14, mid-term elections.
The 2-year presidential race for 2016 begins.
On Saturday,
11/15/14, the enrollment period for Obamacare in 2015 begins (pushed forward from
10/15/14 by the Whitehouse and democrats; voters will now not
experience the sticker shock of higher insurance premiums, since too few
healthy young people are signing up to support the program, until after the
election).
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© The Keystone
Speculator. All Rights Reserved. 2012. 2013.
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