A new moon occurs at 4:15 AM EST on New Years Day, 1/1/14, when markets are closed. Equities are typically weak moving through the new moon each month so a happy finish to end the year may lead to weakness at the tail end of the week when everyone returns to trade the new year with hangovers. For the bulls, new money, especially to begin the year, will help buoy markets into early next week, so these are counteracting forces to begin the year. In addition, we are now in a major Bradley turn window where a significant market move should occur (Bradley turns only highlight the dates where significant market trend changes may occur, or accelerations, but do not predict direction).
For Monday, today, the bulls need to touch the 1845 handle and the big upside party continues with an 1850 print on tap. The bears need to push under Friday's low at 1840 and that will accelerate the downside to the 1833-1835 gap fill. A move through 1841-1843 is sideways action in this thin trading environment. Since this sideways range is so tight, one side or the other will likely receive the nod. S&P futures are flat about one hour before the opening bell. The key for bulls is touching 1845 to continue the party higher. Bears need 1840, then 1828, then 1823, this week to return equities to earth. The breakout from the sideways channel at 1782-1808 occurred 5 days ago and the 1808-1814 area needs to be shown respect and back kissed in the days ahead.