Monday, May 13, 2013

Keystone's Midday Market Action 5/13/13

The bulls arrive today with several buckets of cold water to throw on the bears. The 8 MA moves above the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart signaling bullish markets for the hours and days ahead. However, the VIX is positive today and JJC remains under 41.93, both creating a slight bearish bias. Overall, VIX is 12.67, under 13.30 and bullish, and JJC is 41.69 under 41.93, bearish. The TRIN drops to 0.80 so the fix is in, the bulls receive the nod, and markets recover.  Bulls will have a happy day if the TRIN stays at 0.80-ish.

The SPX moves up through 1634 to print a new all-time high at 1636.00, however, the positive volatility today and lackluster copper keep a lid on the upside, for now. The SPX printed the LOD at 1626.74 at the 10 AM data pivot point and price has moved higher ever since.  Dollar/yen has not budged all day long sitting at 101.90. The 10-year Treasury yield is flat as well at 1.92%. Utilities, telecom, trannies, materials and industrials are all outperforming to the downside today.  Since XLI and XLB are weaker today, traders are getting cold feet about rotating into industrials and materials, or, simply taking quick profits since everyone tripped over each other to buy these sectors over the last couple weeks. Tech remains well bid (COMPQ and XLK). Today is a flat mixed market. Watch JJC 41.73, VIX 13.30, and SPX 1634 and 1624. The beat goes on.

Note Added 3:23 PM:  TRIN is 0.79 so the bulls have no trouble maintaining market buoyancy into the closing bell. VIX is 12.74. JJC is 41.62. SPX 1632. The new all-time high at 1636.00 is holding today. Watch The Friday intraday and closing high at 1633.70. Crude oil is at 95. The 10-year yield is stuck at 1.92% and dollar/yen is stuck at 101.85 for hours. Uneventful day today with about one-half hour of trading remaining.

Note Added 3:43 PM:  SPX is teasing around Friday's number at 1633.70. Markets are searching for a reason to move one way or the other and cannot find one. TRIN is 0.78, say no more, it was the bulls day today. The multiple low TRIN days are adding up, may as well call it eight days in a row under one favoring bulls each day. This behavior will reverse at any time moving forward.

10 comments:

  1. Powerful hint for market players on spx 500:
    Wave 1 that started in nov'12 was 105 points.
    for end of wave 5 - started at 1536 - watch the 1.236 fibo extension and 1.382 extension.
    ;)
    that would be 1666 on spx cash and 1681.

    V.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Hi V, what do you mean when you said spx cash?

      Delete
    2. not ES, not futures.
      for me s&p 500 cash it's the market value as seen.
      Usually the futures are -4 or 5 points below the cash spx 500 level.
      i.e. s'n'p 500 cash level of 1666 = 1661-1662 on ES, futures of s'n'p 500.
      it's important to note the difference in order to not have market positioning problems.

      V.

      Delete
    3. And the site here references SPX cash for nearly all the charts and analysis. Keybot the Quant operates during the day and all its references are to the SPX which can be followed in your brokerage account, or on stockcharts.com with $SPX or yahoo finance with ^SPX. The SPX is used since the site is educational and the SPX helps novice traders follow along immediately without getting confused with the futures and options markets.

      Delete
  2. The broad indexes are sideways all day, flat VIX, copper is lackluster leaning towards the bear camp. The low TRIN handed the day to the bulls. Will be interesting with a new high made, SPX 1636.00, to see if the SPX closes at a new high, or not. Friday closing high and intraday high is 1633.70. Current print is 1633.72, 'how do you like them apples?'

    ReplyDelete
  3. This is ridiculous! Nothing seem to have any effect on the market..tapering QE..investors just read pass that news. In that case, may be we all should be on one side of the boat..bullish...see if the it sink or not! May be a shark will swim by and cut through the boat...where is that shark?

    ReplyDelete
  4. KS, could you post some charts regarding Crude Oil WTIC..
    Thanks!

    ReplyDelete
  5. fressshhhhhh update of the "steal the FED's punch bowl" special action :) ... Plosser speaking in Stockholm - E.U.

    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/philly-feds-plosser-slow-then-end-bond-buys-2013-05-14?link=MW_home_latest_news

    V.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. one more cookie on the same subject :)

      http://www.fxstreet.com/news/forex-news/article.aspx?storyid=0c078d66-480e-4050-a54e-ac636a68c6c3

      V.
      p.s. that's bullish, isn't it ?!? :)?
      What a luck , that Plosser is NOT a voting member or a member of the Core in FED.

      Delete
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