Tuesday, May 14, 2013

SPX Daily Chart Upward-Sloping Channel Overbot Rising Wedge Negative Divergence Price Elevation Above 200 MA

The bulls are moving markets sideways to sideways up not permitting the bears to experience any joy. Yesterday's candlestick is a hanging man indicating a potential trend change today. The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and negative divergence all indicate that a spank down is on tap. Price is well elevated above the 200 MA and a reversion to the mean is desperately needed. Volume remains challenged. The MACD line is trying to squeeze out a slightly higher high which may allow a couple more days of sideways up, however, overall the chart says down.

The bulls will try to keep the MACD line moving higher, and also try to sneak the RSI above 70 to gather some additional fuel, and push the SPX to the upper rail at 1650. However, the rally is long in the tooth and the chart is ready to roll over. The SPX weekly chart is topping and negatively diverged as well reinforcing the bear case but with the Fed and BOJ money, the downside is like waiting for Godot.  Projection is sideways to sideways lower for the days and weeks ahead. Potential bounce points below are the 1614-1618 support level, 1597-1598 (strong support, the 20-day MA and the lower channel rail), and the 50-day MA at 1572. Price may drop and bounce back up to current levels for a retest then roll over, or simply head lower beginning lower lows and lower highs from here. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:04 PM:  Noted bullish hedge fund guru David Tepper, Appaloosa Management, appears on CNBC business television this morning announcing full steam ahead for bulls and the negative futures immediately turn green and run higher. Tepper is known for his strong bullishness in late 2010, after QE2, that turned out to be correct and the rally into 2011 was dubbed the 'Tepper Rally'. Thus, today is a mini Tepper Rally. Tepper said the markets are in a Goldilocks upwards move. Also that the Fed should taper QE which would remain market bullish. If the Fed does not taper, then he says the markets will melt-up vertically like 1999. In other words nothing but upside ahead, blue skies and rainbows. The RSI moves above the 70% level today so over a couple days time the RSI will show if it continues to squeeze out upside, or, if it negatively diverges to create the price roll over moving forward. SPX HOD thus far is to 1649.71 fulfilling the move to the upper rail of hte channel. Today is interesting since either Tepper continues his bullish legend, or, perhaps, as the days move along, this week may serve as the beginning of the Tepper Selloff?

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