The SPX came down to the 20-day MA at 1633.71 but did not touch. This is surprising because price will usually at least tap on the 20-day MA for a back test when in such close proximity. The candlesticks for Thursday and Friday show long lower shadows, due to stocks recovering during the day due to the Fed POMO pumps, forming a potential tweezer bottom that would set up a market bounce for next week. The CPC put/call prints 1.26, the highest level since the May 2012 selloff, which is typically a place to bring on longs for a bounce, however, any market selling will likely spike the CPC higher to 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5. The NYMO low reading also indicates a potential bounce on tap.
The plus side for the bears is that the volume was so anemic on Friday, vapor and fumes, the lowest since the Christmas and New Year's holidays, that the market signals are mixed and need a few days to show their true colors. Also, the SPX daily chart indicators are all weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in price even if a bounce occurs. The 8 MA remains under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart signaling bearish markets for the hours ahead, however, the 8 MA is heading upwards for a positive cross of the 34 MA to place the bulls back in charge to begin the new week. The Tuesday opening bell is critical. Any positivity in futures will create the market bounce as discussed above. The bears must drive the SPX lower immediately after the opening bell to drive the 8 MA lower and keep the bears in control. Any news from Japan, or action in the JGB's and dollar/yen currency, will impact the U.S. markets come Tuesday morning. A higher dollar/yen moves markets higher. A lower dollar/yen moves markets lower.