Tuesday, September 25, 2012

SPX 30-Minute Chart Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Breakdown

This morning the focus was watching the 8 and 34 MA cross which continually signals which side is steering the ship for the hours and days ahead. The bears were in control to start the day with the 8 MA under the 34 MA.  A couple hours into trading note how the 8 came up threatening to pierce up thru the 34 MA which would have been bull happiness, but alas, the 8 touched the 34 and then promptly collapsed along with SPX price plummeting from over 1462 to 1441 from noon time into the close, down 1.4% in about four hours, dropping about five points per hour.

Price collapsed out the bottom of the blue sideways triangle. The vertical side of the triangle is about 18 to 20 handles.  Thus, the collapse occurred at the bottom rail failure at 1457-ish. This yields a downside target area of 1437 to 1439.  For any target developed from any pattern, other indicators and tools must be referenced to see if a confluence will occur which gives the targets street cred.  For the 1437-1439 target zone, note the horizontal support that exists in this area from over a week ago.  Also note that a green falling wedge is forming with an apex in this target zone.  Further, the 20-day MA is 1436.48 (look at this on a daily chart) in this neighborhood as well. The bottom rail of the downward-sloping red channel is also in this target zone. This is a confluence of several tools all pointing to 1435-1440.

The SPX S/R in the target area is 1440, 1438, 1435 and 1433. The indicators show a weak and bleak profile by the red lines where lower lows in price are desired even after a bounce would occur.  The money flow, and the stochastics over the last hour of trading, are positively diverged (green lines) which will help create a dead cat bounce.  Projection is for price to head lower into the 1435-1440 target zone. At that time, the charts can be referenced to see if positive divergence is in place, or not.  Pay attention to the 20-day MA. As always, keep an eye on the 8 and 34 MA cross which remains firmly in the bear camp.  The bears are cruising. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

1 comment:

  1. Quick EWT calculation has a 3rd wave target down at 1439. EXACTLY where you project it! :-) Then possible retrace/dead cat bounce to 1445-1450ish to finish a 4th wave and final target of 1425ish, which coincides exactly with the smaller of the two triangles you presented in an earlier update. :-) That could complete an ABC correction.

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