Thursday, September 13, 2012

CPC Put/Call Daily Chart Signals Significant Market Top

The CPC put/call chart has been posted several times lately. When the CPC prints in the 0.7's or lower, it signals uber complacency by traders, complete lack of fear.  Traders are slapping each other on the back fully convinced that markets will move up substantially far into the future. The boat is fully loaded on the bull side.  As you must suspect, this is a contrarian indicator and when the boat is fully loaded on the bull side, it capsizes.  At 0.74, the markets have now placed a Significant Market Top.  Independent of whether Chairman Bernanke causes the inflection point today where markets fall out of bed, or not, any further move up in the markets should be limited and the over confidence will be smacked with some downside realism.  With the CPC numbers this low, you must soul-search any long positions and decide if you are willing to hold them for a very long time, since, the market sell move from here may become quite serious. Projection is for a market top now and down move to begin at any time. Using the CPC as a forecasting tool, in general, it is best to be short the markets when under the red line, and best to jump in and long the markets above 1.20. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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