Sunday, September 30, 2012

SPX Daily Chart Upwards-Sloping Channel Negative Divergence

The SPX daily chart shows price leveling off after the 9/14/12 high intraday print at 1475. At the same time, the indicators formed negative divergence and created the spank down. On Wednesday price fell thru the 20-day MA, then regained this critical moving average on Thursday, only to give it up again to close the week.  The upper BB was violated so a price move to the middle BB should occur, which is the same as the 20-day MA. Thus, this is a major item to watch, the 20-day MA at 1442, above and bulls are happy, below and bears are happy.  Note the confluence at 1403-1419 formed by the lower BB target, horizontal support/resistance, the lower rail of the channel, and the 50-day MA at 1412.  When several factors form a confluence of energy it is like a magnet gaining strength and serves to pull price towards the magnet area.

The red lines over the last three or so days show a weak and bleak profile which wants to see lower prices. The RSI did not drop, however, it bounced from the 50% level which would have confirmed the bearishness.  The bounce on Thursday may have been the result of the short green RSI line and perhaps price is ready to head lower to fulfill the weak and bleak indicators. If the RSI drops under 50% that will signal bearishness moving forward.

The 150-day MA slope which is one of Keystone's Ccylical Signals.  See how the 150-day MA green line is sloping up across the entire chart? That positive slope shows that the bulls rule.  If the 150-day MA slope flattens, then rolls negative (little blue rectangle), that will indicate big trouble for markets moving forward. The last three prints for the 150-day are 1376.24 on Wednesday, 1376.78 on Thursday and 1377.27 to end the day Friday. That is a 54 cent difference that decreases to a 49 cent difference. If the 150-day prints a lower number any day forward that tells you to man the life boats since the long boat is going down.  Projection is for lower prices moving forward to satisfy the weak indicators, however, if price moves above the 20-day MA, further buoyancy in price may occur before price comes down to print the lower lows.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here.  Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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