Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time. The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.
Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:
· Keystone’s Comments on the Upcoming Week: Three key economic data points occur this week; the ISM on Tuesday morning which will jump-start the trading week, then the ECB show on Thursday morning before U.S. markets open, then the Friday Jobs circus. The mixed signals out of Europe continue, one day Spain is going to request a bailout formally, the next day not. One day the news flow suggests the ECB is finalizing a bond-buying program, the next day not. Continue watching the 10-year yields for Spain and Italy, the 7% and 6% levels, respectively. Watch the 2-10 Spanish yield spread, Draghi’s fave indicator, which he wants to see steeper which aids the banks; a flattening 2-10 spells more trouble for Europe. Draghi may focus on buying the notes on the short end to maintain the spread. The ECB rate decision and press conference is on Thursday, 9/6/12. Bank runs and European riot worries remain a concern although Europe has been calm lately awaiting the stimulus announcement from Draghi. The European vacation season is over and the dramatic month of September which should decide Europe’s intermediate term fate is underway. The European news flow directly dictates global market direction. The German vote on the ESM is 9/12/12. The FOMC meeting, rate decision, forecasts and press conference is on 9/13/12. Congress is back in session next week 9/10/12 which is bearish for markets. Watch for further China easing measures such as lowering triple R’s which will bounce equity markets although China appears to be focused on local stimulus programs instead of triple R or interest rate cuts. U.S. trading volume will increase as the day’s move along, now that Labor Day is over. The start of a new month is typically bullish for markets since new money is placed to work. Earnings season is over except for some stragglers. Pre-announcement confessional season is mid to late September into early October where companies will announce any potential problems with earnings, so keep an ear out all month long. Volatility, the VIX, typically bottoms in August and now sits at 5-year lows so watch this closely. Traders are much too complacent since they expect the markets to be supported by central bankers forever.
· Monday, 9/3/12: U.S. Markets are Closed in Observance of Labor Day. Eurozone Finance Ministers meet.
· Tuesday, 9/4/12: U.S. Markets Reopen for Trading. First trading day of the new month. Motor Vehicle Sales. PMI Manufacturing Index 9 AM. Construction Spending and ISM Mfg Index 10 AM-watch for a market pivot point. CPB, FNSR, PBY, SFD, TEA.
· Wednesday, 9/5/12: Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM. Earnings: AVAV, DG, FCEL, HRB, MTRX, MW, SIGM, PAY, VRNT.
· Thursday, 9/6/12: ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference 7 to 8 AM EST—Draghi must deliver on his promise that he will provide stimulus, and his comment, “believe me, it will be enough.” Expect a wild reaction in the markets. Challenger Job-Cut Report 7:30 AM. ADP Employment Report 8:15 AM. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. Quarterly Services Survey and ISM Non-Mfg Index 10 AM. Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Oil Inventories 11:00 AM (delayed one day due to holiday). Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM. Earnings: LAYN, NAV, ULTA.
· Friday, 9/7//12: Monster Employment Index. Monthly Jobs Report 8:30 AM. Expect a wild reaction in the markets. Treasury STRIPS 3 PM. Earnings: KR.
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· Early September: Troika Report is due but this may be pushed forward into late September or later (this is needed for leaders to make a decision with Greece).
· Tuesday, 9/11/12: Anniversary of U.S. Terrorism Attacks. Banking Union Proposals.
· Wednesday, 9/12/12: German vote on the ESM (European Safety Mechanism). FOMC meeting begins. AAPL releases new iPad5.
· Thursday, 9/13/12: FOMC Rate Decision, Forecasts and Press Conference at 12:30 PM, 2 PM and 2:15 PM, respectively. Expect a market pivot point at 2:15 PM. .
· Sunday, 9/30//12: Bradley turn date-a potential market trend change may occur 9/24 thru 10/5.
· Thursday, 10/18/12: ECB Summit-Merkel may avoid a decision on Greece until now. Will Greece exit the euro?
· Tuesday, 1/1/13: If Congress does not act, the U.S. drives the economy off the “massive fiscal cliff’ (a phrase coined by Chairman Bernanke in early 2012) that will cut the GDP, increase unemployment and immediately launch the country into recession, but, the nation’s debt will decrease.
Love your site, great stuff, but I would suggest getting rid of the color coded stuff, makes reading your insights annoying, maybe just bold or highlight on a white background. Again, site is amazing but so annoying to read.
ReplyDeleteYou are not paying for this site, so take it as it is and be thankful that you are getting free information, sometimes don't be too picky makes life much happier! :)
DeleteDanke Anon, but the colors are a type of thinking function that occurs along the way. Blue is the European continent and area, yellow is the Orient and the Fed is in green. Key economic data is red. The bold even serves a purpose elevating the importance of an item. In general, regular black script is nothing especially noteworthy, but black text and bold is an item of greater significance, colored and bold is an item of great significance. The site can post some long wind-bag content sometimes, a sea of words, so the highlights also provide an easier and faster way to access key information a day or few later when scrolling back.
ReplyDeleteSome other loyal readers have commented on the black background, colors, etc..., as well, and it is a valid comment since the eyes may have to adjust afterwards. There are free programs you can grab off the net but the easiest way to display the site to perform what you are asking is Tools/Internet Options/General/Accessibility/Ignore colors, so it is easy as pie to disply the entire site in black and white if you like to view it that way.