Keystone's Key Events and Market Movers Week of 6/4/12

Keystone presents the following underlying market currents, sometimes subtle, sometimes turbulent, that move global markets in real time.  The key dates and times below typically correspond to market pivot points.

Key Dates and Times for the Week Ahead:

·         Monday, 6/4/12:  The European debt crisis is reaching a crescendo. Greece and Spain are the major near term worries.  Italy, Portugal and Hungary as well.  Greece appears more willing to stay in the euro (helping market bulls) but Spain banks are falling apart (helping market bears).  Bank runs remain a major concern for Greece, Spain and now Italy as well.  Watch the European spreads closely. The Spain-Germany 10-year yield spread at 543 is at record highs. The France-Germany spread measures the seriousness of the European debt crisis status since France leans towards the socialistic side and Germany is the safe haven, the yin and the yang.  If the spread increases, the turmoil in Europe is getting worse. If the spread moves lower, tightening, this will show that the tensions in Europe are diminishing. The spread is currently 111 (France 10-year yield 2.27% and Germany 1.16%). Greece elections are 6/17/12 only twelve trading days away. The European news flow is dictating global markets. European contagion may develop into global contagion.  Congress is returning from their short recess and will be in session, for the most part, thru 8/3/12 so this is a market negative for the next two months. Watch for further China triple R cuts or interest rate cuts that would pump markets higher with liquidity.  China may now wait and provide stimulus in concert with a coordinated global intervention that includes QE3 and LTRO3. Earnings for the Q1 reporting season are all but over although there are a few notables remaining.  Thoughts will move to the confessional season, mid to late June, where companies will preannounce any changes to Q2 earnings projections.  If there are few, this will create market buoyancy, but if many companies begin lowering guidance moving forward, markets will react negativity. Lots of central bank and Fed talk is on tap this week.   Due to markets breaking down technically late last week, the Asian, European and futures markets are important overnight Sunday into today. ASCO cancer conference runs thru tomorrow; watch cancer, biotech, pharma and healthcare stocks such as SPPI, CELG, JNJ, ALTH, etc…. U.K. markets are closed today and tomorrow for Queen Elizabeth’s Diamond Jubilee. Factory Orders 10 AM. Tonight is a full moon and markets are typically up about two-thirds of the time in front of a full moon. Earnings: DG, HOFT, SHFL.

·         Tuesday, 6/5/12:  RBA (Australia) Rate Decision. BOC (Canada) Rate Decision. Ceridian-UCLA Diesel Fuel Indicator 9 AM. ISM Non-Mfg Index 10AM.  Fed’s Bullard speaks 2:15 PM. Fed’s Fisher speaks 7 PM. Fed’s Evans speaks 7:30 PM.  Earnings: BOBE, CBK, FCEL, JASO, LAYN, MIND, ULTA.

·         Wednesday, 6/6/12: ECB Rate Decision and Press Conference. Mortgage Purchase Applications 7 AM. Fed’s Lockhart speaks 8:15 AM. Productivity and Costs 8:30 AM. Fed’s Tarullo speaks 10 AM. Oil Inventories 10:30 AM. Beige Book 2 PM—which should result in a market pivot point.  Fed’s Lockhart speaks 2:15 PM. Fed’s Williams speaks 3:30 PM. Fed’s Yellen speaks 7 PM. Earnings: ALOG, HOV, MW, PLL, ROSG, MTN.

·         Thursday, 6/7/12: BOE (England) Rate Decision. Jobless Claims 8:30 AM.  Chairman Bernanke speaks 10 AM—any hints of QE3 talk?  Natty Inventories 10:30 AM. Fed’s Lockhart speaks 11 AM. Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks 1:15 PM. Consumer Credit 3 PM. Fed’s Fisher 3:30 PM.  Fed Balance Sheet and Money Supply 4:30 PM.  Earnings: AGYS, ALTR, COO, SJM, LULU, NAV, PRGN, PBY, TITN.

·         Friday, 6/8/12: Fed’s Kocherlakota speaks. International Trade 8:30 AM. Wholesale Trade 10 AM. Earnings: ORCL.

·         Wednesday,6/13/12: PPI (Producer Price Index) and Retail Sales 8:30 AM. 10-Year Note Auction 1 PM.

·         Thursday,6/14/12: CPI (Consumer Price Index) and Jobless Claims 8:30 AM. 30-Year Bond Auction 1 PM.

·         Friday, 6/15/12: OpEx. Industrial Production 9:15 AM.  Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM.

·         Sunday, 6/17/12: Greece elections. The U.S. Supreme Court rules on Obamacare any day over the next two weeks—healthcare stocks will react violently.

·         Tuesday,6/19/12: Housing Starts 8:30 AM. FOMC Meeting begins. New Moon.

·         Wednesday,6/20/12: FOMC Rate Decision and Press Conference-will QE3 be announced if it has not occurred already? Equities will experience a rip-roaring rally once additional stimulus programs are announced by Chairman Bernanke.

·         Tuesday, 6/26/12: Consumer Confidence 10 AM.

·         Thursday, 6/28/12: Euro Summit. GDP.

·         Friday, 6/29/12: EOM. Consumer Sentiment 9:55 AM.