KORS blew out earnings which keeps the retail sector, RTH, elevated above the critical 41.08, now printing 41.33. This allows market bulls to wipe the sweat off their brow and relax. Markets will not continue lower without the retail sector failing. The SPX is on the plus side in early trading so rupturing the 1308 level is not a worry, yet. The 20-day MA is 1310.95, SPX now printing 1310.92 so there is a fight ongoing for this critical moving average. Watch to see if the 8 MA stays under the 34 MA on the 30-minute chart favoring bears for the hours or day or two ahead, or, if the 8 MA moves back above the 34 MA signaling the all-clear once again for bulls.
Note Added 6/12/12 at 9:49 AM: The bulls are puffing their chests today, placing two feathers in their caps, one for RTH staying above 41.08, and the other as the SPX sustains above the 20-day MA. Considering the importance of the retail sector and Retail Sales data is on tap tomorrow, the broad markets may trend sideways today ahead of the release in the morning, when the die will be cast. Utilities, UTIL, are stringing two down days in a row today. It is very ominous for markets if the utes continue to roll over in the days ahead and lead the broad indexes lower.
Note Added 6/12/12 at 10:08 AM: Spain 10-year yield popped above the prior high at 6.78% printing 6.81% so this casts a pall over global markets. Europe continues to deteriorate. Obviously as the yield climbs, the Spain-Germany spread contnues to blow out higher. The RTH is now at 41.13 and fading. The SPX loses the 20-day MA so the bear's cap is losing feathers once again. Global markets are at the mercy of Europe, and specifically, the Spanish yields. Careful..... RTH at 41.09 and SPX testing 1308, this is it....... bounce or die.
Note Added 6/12/12 at 10:19 AM: Bounce. These markets exhibit more drama than a Lady Gaga concert. Here it comes back down for another look again. Watch the LOD at 1307.99 from five minutes ago, it is very important now. Hang on.... 1308.17 ....1308.14, quick, set up Keystone's defibrillator.
Note Added 6/12/12 at 10:53 AM: Markets recovered. SPX once again fighting with the 20-day MA at 1311. Market bulls are hanging on, by a thread, but hanging on. Ratchet up the RTH level of interest to 41.10 as the line in the sand insteadof 41.08. Now printing 41.20.
Note Added 6/12/12 at 11:26 AM: Now that the palpatations have eased, RTH is at 41.43, well above danger. The SPX blew up thru the 20-day MA and is now printing over 1320. Quite a recovery. Bears are searching for the two feathers that ended up on the floor so they can place them back in the hat. Markets will likely travel sideways but the trigger for a strong upside leg will occur if the NYA 40-week at 7657 gives way, now printing 7532, about 120 points below. For OpEx weeks, markets typically run higher from a Tuesday low into a high on Wednesday. Perhaps the low occurred at 10:40 AM.
Note Added 6/12/12 at 4:20 PM: Today was a lazy hazy day of summer. The excitment was in the early going. Yesterday markets drifted lower all day long, today they drifted higher all day long. The sideways pattern ahead of the Greece elections is playing out thru a range of 1307-1326; watch which side breaks from this channel this week. Retail Sales are at 8:30 AM EST and will obviously impact RTH which will in turn impact the broad indexes. Lackluster trading opportunities this week thus far. An interesting pattern has played out as the sideways channel moves along; go short at last Thursday's open, go long at Friday's open, go short at Monday's open, go long at today's (Tuesday) open.
You wouldn't need the defibrillator if you just stopped eating all those hotdogs and apple pie slices.
ReplyDeleteHahaha, great one Weaver. Watching the 20-day MA for SPX, that will tell a lot, and tell whether or not Keystone will next have to grab the heart pills.
ReplyDeleteoWhoOps... got on the wrong side of her I scaled up and turned it out for $164 profit now she is kissing backing the breakout which was what I was expecting but at $300 a point I don't want wait around I must learn more patience ...
ReplyDelete11:38:27 JUN12 Futures ES BOT 6 1318.00 GLOBEX 12.06
11:21:49 JUN12 Futures ES SLD 2 1319.75 GLOBEX 4.02
11:21:00 JUN12 Futures ES SLD 2 1317.75 GLOBEX 4.02
11:13:04 JUN12 Futures ES SLD 1 1317.00 GLOBEX 2.01
11:10:13 JUN12 Futures ES SLD 1 1314.75 GLOBEX 2.01
I should note I lost about 100 on the above series of trades. 164 is whats left from the profitable 8:30am Globex trades which I was up $250 on (sorry my bad don't mean to be confusing)...
ReplyDeleteHey KS! These poor coal stocks keep getting hammered. Still seeing a positive diverge? One of these days folks are going to realize that "100 years" of Natty gas is hype.
ReplyDeleteHello Sankaty, yep, they look good--as they continue lower. Usually all the bad press that you will hear is already built into stock prices, since the market traders sniff the news out before anyone else knows. Folks are probably worried about the President being reelected since if he is, coal will cease to exist in America, the current Administration hates coal. If Romney wins or is favored, coal will catapult higher. To us, we could care less who wins, we just want to be positioned correctly, and so far, the coals keep drifting lower. They are psycho stocks capable of large percentage moves any given day so time will tell.
DeleteT Bon Pickens was squawking about Natty today on CNBC saying $4+. I think that a more compelling argument I heard was that we have an abundance of the same and its not going to ratchet up in price but instead fall again.
ReplyDeleteNatty remains a tricky intermediate to long term call. Sure we have gas coming out our ears but if the committment is made to natty vehicles and other uses, which it most certainly should, we should have a natty revolution in progress now to get folks back to work, beefing up the filling stations and mass producing cars, with technology that has existed for decades, it is nothing new. Again, the Administration will not support natty instead they prefer wind, solar and algae. Oh my. If th ePresident would simply mention natty in a speech in passing the natty price would catapult higher. Despite the high supply, if there is a committment to natty, the price will jump towards 4, but we need to see the committment of America to do the no brainer thing and start moving down the natty road as soon as possible.
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