Monday, June 18, 2012

Keystone's Eclipse Indicator for Forecasting Market Selloffs

On the esoteric side, Keystone's Eclipse Indicator strives to identify major market selling events. Perhaps using eclipse dates as a trading tool may be comical to some, but any trading tool is important if its results are repeatable and reliable.  There remains many unknowns concerning the human metaphysical being but the basic concept of using the eclipse dates is that humans exhibit odd behavior, resulting in market selling, in and around the eclipse windows.

To identify these areas on your own, investigate the eclipse dates for any given year.  For eclipse dates that are within a month or so of each other simply use a midpoint date. Then, from this date, count backwards one month, and forward one month, and this time frame forms the red boxes shown above, a two-month window that identifies where large selloffs should be anticipated. The front end of the time frames, and back end of the time frames tend to see the market move, with the middle area less likely to see the selloff, but remember, for this abstract tool, the rules are somewhat abstract so in general the entire time range is susceptible to a selloff. Let's review the boxes in more detail.

The first box is an eclipse date of 1/4/11 which produces a range of interest of 12/4/10 thru 2/4/11 where a selloff began at the tail end of the time range.  The second box allows for eclipse dates of 6/1/11, 6/15/11 and 7/1/11, with an average date of 6/15/11 which results in the red box spanning from 5/15/11 thru 7/15/11.  Selloffs occurred at both the front end and rear end of this red box catching the start of the waterfall crash in mid to late July.  The third box uses eclipse dates 11/25/11 and 12/10/11, which is an average date of 12/3/11 and a time range of 11/3/11 thru 1/2/12 which catches the November 2011 selloff.  The current red box uses eclipse dates of 5/20/12 and 6/4/12, for an average date of 5/28/12 and a window from 4/28/12 thru 6/28/12. The front end of the box exactly identified the late April top.

The current box has another two weeks to play out. Typically, the time frames usually consist of one strong sell off move. As seen in summer of 2011, however, major selloffs occurred at both the start and end of the time frame.  Thus, for the blue circle that has yet to play out, we will find out over the next couple weeks if a further down leg occurs, or if an upward move will begin like late last year.

As a trader you always are looking ahead, like a billiards player forecasting his next and following shots not so much the shot he is currently taking. Later this year there are eclipse dates on 11/13/12 and 11/28/12 for an average of 11/20/12 so a major selloff may be in the works for 10/20/12 thru 12/20/12, right in the middle is the U.S. elections. So jot this on the calendar, it may be one of those October's this year. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only.  Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

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