Keystone's Midday Market Action 6/28/12

The bears are growling today. The RTH 41.29, XLF 14.35, VIX 18.90 and NYA 7688 parameters all remain bearish creating market negativity. SPX:VIX ratio is under 68 indicating that a large down day should occur, as long as the ratio stays under 68.  SPX 60-minute chart turned bearish dropping under the 200 EMA.  SPX 30-minute chart shows the 8 MA curling down, watch to see if it crosses down thru the 34 MA, in the hour or two ahead, to place a final nail in the bull coffin. The SPX is fighting to keep its head above the 1321 water line, it drowns underneath. Keystone took profits on the BGZ trade, and has already turned around and reentered opening up a new position in BGZ. The Supreme Court decision on the Affordable Helathcare Act is expected within the hour.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 10:09 AM:  SPX drops under 1321 after Supreme Court news but quickly recovers back above two minutes later. The ruling is confusing, the networks are sorting it all out. SPX is coming back up now. Where's that dramamine? Watch SPX 1321.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 10:17 AM:  SPX is hanging on to 1321 by a fingernail, if it ruptures, she's going down hard. The market reaction remains somewhat muted after the Court decision. As the cops will say down on the local beat, 'move along here, move along, nothing to see here, move along'. SPX now printing a 1324 handle, but the 1321 ledge remains nearby.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 10:26 AM:  Here we go 1321.18. 1321.03 ......rupture ....1320.88...... 1320.89 ... see if the SPX remains under 1321 for 7 to 10 minutes, if so, markets are toast today.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 10:36 AM:  SPX is printing a 1316 handle. Keystone took profits on the BGZ day trade exiting the position.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 10:41 AM:  VIX is over 21. SPX is 1315. Keystone bot HPQ opening up a new long position.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 11:31 AM:  SPX is coming back up to take a look at the 1321 level that failed. The 20-day MA is 1321.06 so use this as a decision level, above is market bullish, below bearish. SPX S/R is 1321, 1319, 1318, 1316, 1315, 1314, 1312, 1310, 1308, 1307, 1305, 1300, 1298, 1296 and 1295. The 1314-1319 zone is a strong gauntlet of support, under that and price goes to 1307-1308, under that and 1295-1296 comes, then a test of the critical 1292-ish which is the 12-month MA, representing the edge of the cliff.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 12:24 PM:  The 8 MA stabbed down thru the 34 MA on the SPX 30-minute chart, bearish. Keystone bot BGZ opening a new long position.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 1:31 PM: SPX is respecting the following S/R levels today; 1324, 1321, 1319 and 1315. The bears are driving the bus today.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 1:40 PM: SPX is coming down for a look at 1315 S again. Let's see wha thte bears got. Failure of 1315 leads to the test of hte bottom of the strong gauntlet of support 1314-1319. If 1314 is lost, 1307-1308 will be in sight next.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 1:52 PM:  Tech is leading the broad markets lower today which is another feather in the bear's cap, a cap already jam-packed full of feathers. The bulls have placed fortifications at 1315, they must hold it and prevent lower lows from printing today with all their might.  1315.52 .... 1315.48 ... 1315.59 ... she's slipping ......

Note Added 6/28/12 at 2:17 PM:  Whoopsies daisies. 1315 failure, 1314 ruptured but price is now bouncing. Failure of 1314 will lead to 1307-1308 if not today than in the day or two ahead.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 2:22 PM:  Hello. 1314 failure. Bears are pushing now. Keystone took profits on the BGZ day trade exiting the position. Note the -1000 TICK minutes ago.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 3:20 PM:  Keystone bot RIMM, a highly dangerous and speculative trade, opening up a new long position. It is beaten down and showing positive divergence on the charts so Keystone will give it a whirl.  Earnings are after the bell and RIMM can easily explode higher 10 or 20% or implode lower 10 or 20%.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 3:41 PM:  Wild pop higher. Keystone took profits on HPQ and RIMM day trades, will look to reenter before the close.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 3:52 PM:  Keystone bot RIMM opening up a new long position. Also buying all EXM under 0.55 the last half hour.  This is the dangerous shipping sector, this is a hitghly speculative penny stock trade. Many shippers are on the verge of bankruptcy but Keystone likes the chart set-up so he will give it a whirl.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 3:56 PM:  Rumors out of Europe that some progress is being made at the Euro Summit. This popped the markets over the last half hour.  Note that Keystone's SPX:VIX ratio is at 67 remaining under 68. Keystone added more RIMM.

Note Added 6/28/12 at 4:00 PM:  Time to let the smoke clear as Keystone lays his head on the stump and awaits RIMM news.......

Note Added 6/29/12 at 6:08 AM:  The RIMM man in the black robe walked by with the scythe and lopped Keystone's noggin off into the basket below. RIMM tumbled after announcing job cuts, delays, all the usual stuff from management.  In the pre-market, RIMM is down 15% looking to start a little more than a buck lower than yesterday's close. Best to let the dust clear on this one for a few days and reassess. Keystone will probably add to the position in the days ahead and will likely stick with the trade despite the drop. NKE disappointed as well which was actually the big surprise last evening.