Thursday, June 14, 2012

Keystone's Midday Market Action 6/14/12

RTH popped above 41.10 at the opening bell so the bulls are throwing confetti.  The RTH is now printing 41.47.  The SPX LOD is 1314.14 no where near the danger level at 1310.50.  Interestingly, the expected Thursday weakness after an uber weak Wednesday did occur, albeit by pennies. If you held short positions from yesterday you could have gotten out lower minutes ago.  Keystone took profits on the TNA long trade, which is long small caps, using the TICK spike over +1000 to exit, will look to reenter. With the RTH at 41.47, the bulls are cruising. Markets are highly volatile, however, so caution is warranted.

Note Added 6/14/12 at 10:08 AM:  Keystone flipped sides, bot TZA opening up a new long position. SPX 1318-ish is interesting today, price popped at the open bumping its head on 1318 receiving a smack down, then price came up and gapped thru the 1318. Thus, perhaps a test of this level can serve as a downside target for price in the coming minutes or hour or two. The sideways SPX channel at 1307-1326 remains in play as we continue inching towards the Greek tragedy on the weekend.

Note Added 6/14/12 at 1:18 PM:  RTH is 41.59.  The SPX remains elevated at the top rail of the multi-day sideways channel thru 1307-1326, playing around with 1326-1327 resistance. Coals are feeling some love today; JRCC is rockin'.  Keystone's short T trade is going the wrong way as folks continue to run to dividend stocks pumping the Divvy Bubble ever higher. Right now, Ma and Pa are handing their life savings over to the guy in the suit that said place it all in divvy stocks.  Watch to see if the SPX can break out above the top rail of the channel at 1326-1327, or, if we head back down into the channel and resume the sideways vibe. Tech is not leading the broad markets higher so this helps keep a lid on the upside.

Note Added 6/14/12 at 2:55 PM:  SPX is gently pushed downwards form the top rail of the channel. RTH is 41.48 well elevated above 41.10 so the bulls are sitting back with their feet on the desk. Keystone took profits on TZA exiting the trade. Also bot TNA opening up a new long position.

Note Added 6/14/12 at 3:05 PM:  Keystone took profits on TNA, ten minute trade for a percent, something is going on, wild spike higher in markets. Its always better to be lucky than good.

Note Added 6/14/12 at 3:09 PM:  Keysotne flipped to the other side opening up a new trade on TZA again--fading the rip--placed the trade at the +1200 uber TICK.

Note Added 6/14/12 at 3:21 PM:  Keystone took the dough on the TZA trade. The markets lost altitude after the tape bomb hit and now the smoke is clearing.

Note Added 6/14/12 at 3:45 PM: Keystone would like to enter TZA but wants to see 21.18, now printing 21.30.....being stingy....

Note Added 6/14/12 at 3:49 PM:  They came down to snag it so Keystone is back in TZA at 21.18. Tech (COMPQ) is not leading the broad market (SPX) up so the upside continues to appear limited.  The SPX sideways channel thru 1307-1326 was violated to the upside on this wild QE news.

Note Added 6/14/12 at 4:03 PM:  Keystone wanted to exit TZA at 21.38, being stingy, waiting for price to come up, but they came up within a penny and would not snag it, so the TZA trade remains in place overnight. SPX closed above the 1307-1326 channel in place over the last week. Keystone has to go to HD now to buy an exhaust fan.  Why? Since every day of trading ends with time needed to allow the smoke to clear, maybe an extra fan will help.

12 comments:

  1. KS, I didn't understand the jump in BOIl today. The report is not much changed from last week
    Mike

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  2. Hello Anon, natty inventories increased but the trick is to look at how the increase occurs as to what was expected. Inventories increased, which typically in any business is bad news since that means demand is less and time will be needed to burn off inventory. For natty, the inventory number expected was an increase of a much higher number. In other words, the natty supplies were projected to increase X amount. But the data shows an increase occurred but not as much as was expected. Therefore, there is more demand for natty than traders realized, hence, price pops.

    Since natty price was beaten down so badly, wells were closed and drilling slowed or stopped, many rigs in the Gulf are now going or already off line, thus, as we move into summer, the affect of the drill rig slowdown will impact price. It's the same old story with commodities and stocks in general. The price goes down, so production decreases, then as the supply tightens again price will run up. If the President would for once just even say the smallest sentence that he likes natty, the price would catapult higher. Natty continues basing and this will likely hold for many years. Once the natty vehicles and other uses catch on, it wiill gather steam and the demand will increase strongly so natty is a nice long term story.

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  3. WOW, what a spike? what's that? any news hitting? can't find anything. was just about to go short... pffff

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  4. found it: apparently it's because news was leaked that central banks are ready to move... (and thus give the crack addict it's last and final OD...)

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  5. got that one God is good :) I overrode the signal to buy 5 more at 1328 that's okay though fear is costly but that was a nice step up... next week is going to be awesome... I knew that rising wedge in the 30 MIN VIX was going to break...

    15:06:11 JUN12 Futures ES BOT 1 1325.50 GLOBEX 2.01
    15:08:32 JUN12 Futures ES SLD 1 1333.00 GLOBEX 2.01

    http://scharts.co/MSLcxc

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  6. Hello all, yep, news of a 'coordinated' move coming after the Greece elections but this sounds like a pig in a poke, the news is Captain Obvious stating what is already somewhat known. Yep, they are sellin' them now....

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  7. The altitude is so fake the "big wick" got faded hard... Like KS said fade it...

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  8. lol: buy the rumor, sell the news indeed! I've been cash since monday; I am not a day trader and all this red-green-red-green on a daily basis is not a place to be for me. I'll go long if monday's high is broken consistently. NOT TRADING ADVICE.

    Funny to see how the crack addict comes to live when you even only whisper the word "crack" in his ears...

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  9. Natty up 15% short squeeze...

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  10. LOL. last TZA trade was 21.27 and out and 21.37. Wow. what insanity. Wait till tomorrow. On the way to HD as well to buy some screws for head and desk chair, they flew off during the rise today. Thanks KS.

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  11. volume on SPY near 80mil that's huge I think we're temporarily out of the woods... there was huge block option trades in SPY calls as well even in June calls all the months in fact were ravaged by the HFT BOTS no offers left behind when you buy 90000 calls a dozen times over across the board something is going on...

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