Friday, March 23, 2012

European Bond Yields 3/23/12

All the countries in the first group below see a bump higher in yields over the last day, France is moving flat.  The countries in the second group are the perceived safer havens that all see a bump lower in yields over the last day.

10-Year Yield Summary:
Greece 19.78%
Portugal 12.64%
Hungary 8.88%
Spain 5.52%
Italy 5.14%
Belgium 3.39%
France 3.00%

Netherlands 2.47%
U.K. 2.29%
U.S. 2.26%
Germany 1.88%

Note the joke that is Greece, moving 180 basis points since yesterday from 18.00% to 19.78%. Portugal jumps 14 bips since yesterday.  This week the ECB must have been intervening to keep a handle on Portugal but the lid just blew off the boiling pot again. Portugal obviously will need another bailout soon. Hungary continues to rise but no one pays attention, perhaps they will when it moves over 9%? Spain is now over the 5.5% level and looking at higher targets. 

Italy jumped 8 bips since yesterday now comfortably back above the five level at 5.14%. Italy needs to revitalize their labor markets; the youth unemployment is about 30%. Yields are expected to continue higher as problems persist. Portugal, Hungary and Italy are the three that appear most troubling over the last day.  France flat lines staying above that 3% wishing that it could join the cool kids, the perceived safe havens in the lower group, but that remains highly unlikely. Germany receives a huge move down from 2.06% to now under 1.90% in the last 48 hours. Money obviously flowing strongly into Germany.  Note how the U.K. and U.S. are right on top of each other.  The problems in Euroland are far from over and appear to be worsening again.

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