Thursday, March 22, 2012

European Bond Yield Summary 3/22/12

10-Year Yields:
Greece 18.00%
Portugal 12.50%
Hungary 8.73%
Spain 5.49%
Italy 5.06%
Belgium 3.37%
France 3.02%
Netherlands 2.50%
U.K. 2.35%
U.S. 2.28%
Germany 1.95%

France manufacturing data disappoints as well as Germany's PMI released minutes ago, at 48.1, indicates contraction. Eurozone PMI numbers are on tap. China also released weaker manufacturing data.  Portugal continues to flat line across 12.50-ish with the ECB likely holding it in check. There is lots of talk of a second bailout for Portugal which reinforces the thought that the ECB is likely in the markets trying to control the Portugal situation. Portugal yield curve remains inverted form the 2's thru the 30's indicating recession. Hungary continues to be the beach ball that is trying to be held under water, moving up about 12 basis points thus far this week to 8.73%.

Spain takes a large leap upwards yesterday jumping 25 bips over the last 24 hours, now at 5.49% testing the critical 5.5% level. Watch to see if Spain moves above 5.5%. Italy is now back above 5% for the first time in two weeks.  The warnings signals are starting to trigger again for Europe. Belgium climbs this week to now print 3.37%. France is flat this week but maintaining above 3%.

Yields for the perceived safer haven countries Netherlands, U.K., U.S. and Germany are all lower by a few bips each.  Germany is now back under 2%. The European debt crisis will be front and center once again.

The euro dropped after the German data. A down euro means up dollar and down commodities, copper and equities markets.  U.S. futures have tumbled in the last half hour from slightly positive to now down nearly seven handles, a dramatic move in such a short time. Before this note is finished, the spoo's are now down eight points.

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