Friday, March 16, 2012

European Bond Yields 3/16/12

As the week draws to a close, in front of St. Patrick's Day, a day when everyone is Irish, the yields are relatively well behaved. The U.S. Treasury prices falling, and yields rising, over the last few days, almost overtakes the interest in Europe temporarily.

10-Year Bond Yields:
Greece 18.02%
Portugal 13.68%
Hungary 8.61%
Spain 5.19%
Italy 4.85%
Australia 4.23%
Belgium 3.35%
France 2.98%
Netherlands 2.49%
U.K. 2.40%
U.S. 2.28%
Germany 1.97%
Japan 1.05%

Yields in Europe have settled after the Greece turmoil but this is likely the calm before the next storm. Portugal remains under 14% for now but this is the likely next problemBorrowing costs in Italy fall for the first time in about nine weeks with Italy's 10-year yield at 4.85%. Spain, however, continues to creep upwardsFrance also steadily ticks up in tiny increments now testing the 3% level once again.

The safer havens are all experiencing a rise in 10-year yields.  Netherlands has jumped 10 basis points in the last 48 hours. The U.K. is up 14 basis points in the last two days. The U.S. is up 20 basis points since Monday. Germany is up towards 2% now also rising about 20 basis points since Monday like the U.S. Australia, the land down under, is up over 30 basis points since Monday and Japan has jumped 7 basis points since Monday, which is a large move for such a small yield.

Greece, Portugal, Spain and Hungary remain key worries. Watch the 3% level for France.

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