SPX S&P 500 Support, Resistance (S/R), Moving Averages and Other Important Levels for Trading the Week of 8/24/15

SPX (S&P 500) support, resistance (S/R), moving averages and other important levels are provided for trading the week of 8/24/15. Levels shown in bold are strong resistance and support. Bold and underlined levels are very strong and important S/R. The SPX all-time intraday high is 2134.72 on 5/20/15 and the SPX all-time closing high is 2130.82 on 5/21/15. The intraday and closing low for this year is 1970.89 on Friday, 8/21/15.

For Monday with the SPX starting at 1971, the lowest print of the entire year, the bulls are simply trying to stop the bleeding. Bulls need the retail stocks and banks to recover and for volatility to move lower. The elevated VIX moving towards 30 says the stock market price moves are going to remain very large both intraday and day to day. An elevated VIX, and elevated CPC and CPCE put/call ratio’s forecast a tradeable market bottom at hand starting at anytime Monday or into mid-week.

The market bears need any amount of red in the S&P futures overnight and the SPX will drop several handles at the opening bell to quickly test the 1964 support where a bounce or die decision will be made. If 1964 fails, price will target the 1951 support. The 150-day MA at 2088 is flattening and will signal a cyclical bear market ahead if it rolls over to the downside.

The support/resistance information below shows the extensive technical damage created by the mini-crash last week. The SPX collapses down through very important moving averages. Price falls through the 12-month MA at 2051 (Keystone calls the 12-mth MA the “cliff” since bad things begin happening to the stock market) resulting in market carnage. The SPX is negative on the year dropping from 2059 to 1970; -4.3% for 2015 thus far. Note how price came up to test 2104 last week, which is where the month of August began trading, and promptly collapsed. This hinted that trouble was ahead. There are six trading days remaining in August which must make up a lot of ground to avoid logging a negative month.

Wall Street analysts have been calling for the SPX to print above 2200 and many say over 2300 this year which is now a 300-handle gain and more needed in only four months. The analysts will likely begin marking their predictions lower. Stocks may rally into yearend if Fed Chair Yellen keeps delaying any rate hike.

The market bulls need to recover in baby steps first pushing above the 1973 resistance, then 1978 resistance. If 1978 gives way to the upside then the 1985-1991 resistance gauntlet is next. The 1983-1993 area is uber strong resistance where bears should be able to maintain negative pressure if it holds. If the bulls can push above 1993, they can likely recover to 2000 and higher.

Looking at the big picture the strongest S/R is 2061, 2056, 2046, 2040, 2032, 2019, 2011, 2002, 1998, 1991, 1985-1988, 1978, 1973, 1964, 1951, 1942 and 1928.

2135 (5/20/15 All-Time Intraday High: 2134.72)

2133 (7/20/15 Intraday High 2132.82)

2131 (5/21/15 All-Time Closing High: 2130.82)

2130 (6/22/15 Intraday High 2129.87)

2129

2128 (7/20/15 Closing High 2128.28)

2126 (4/27/15 Intraday High: 2125.92)

2124 (6/23/15 closing High: 2124.20)

2123

2121 (4/24/15 Intraday High: 2120.92)

2120 (2/25/15 Intraday High: 2119.59)

2118 (4/24/15 Closing High: 2117.69)

2117 (3/2/15 Closing High: 2117.39)

2114

2110

2109

2108

2107

2105

2104

2103.84 August Begins Here

2103.47 Previous Week’s High

2103

2102

2100

2099

2097

2096.74 (100-day MA)

2094.17 (20-week MA)

2094 (12/29/14 Intraday High: 2093.55)

2093

2091 (12/29/14 Closing High: 2090.57)

2090.90 (50-day MA)

2089

2088.46 (150-day MA; the Slope is a Keystone Cyclical Signal)

2086

2084

2083.55 (200 EMA on 60-Minute Chart a Keystone Market Turn Signal)

2083.45 (20-day MA)

2081

2080

2079 (12/5/14 Intraday High: 2079.47)

2077.85 (200-day MA)

2076 (11/28/14 Intraday High: 2075.76)

2075 (12/5/14 Closing High: 2075.37)

2073 (11/26/14 Closing High: 2072.83)

2072

2071 (11/21/14 Intraday High: 2071.46)

2069

2067

2065

2063

2062.46 (10-month MA; a major market warning signal)

2061

2058.90 Trading for 2015 Begins Here

2058.86 (50-week MA)

2057

2056 (11/18/14 Intraday High: 2056.08)

2053

2051.24 (12-month MA; a Keystone Cyclical Signal) (the cliff)

2050

2049

2046 (11/13/14 Intraday High: 2046.18)

2041

2040

2038

2034.08 Friday HOD

2034

2032

2030

2024

2023

2021

2019 (9/19/14 Intraday High: 2019.26)

2018

2011 (9/18/14 Closing High: 2011.36) (9/4/14 Intraday High: 2011.17)

2007 (9/5/14 Closing High: 2007.71)

2005 (8/26/14 Intraday High: 2005.04)

2003 (8/29/14 Closing High: 2003.37)

2002

2001

1999

1998

1997

1995

1993 (1/15/15 Closing Low: 1992.67)

1991.55 (20-month MA)

1991 (7/24/14 Intraday Top: 1991.39)

1988 (7/24/14 Closing High: 1987.98)

1986 (7/3/14 Intraday Top: 1985.59)

1985 (7/3/14 Closing High: 1985.44)

1983

1982

1981 (2/2/15 Intraday Low: 1980.90)

1979

1978

1976

1974

1973

1971 (8/21/15 Closing Low for 2015: 1970.89) (8/21/15 Intraday Low for 2015: 1970.89)

1970.89 Friday Close – Monday Starts Here

1970.89 Friday LOD

1970.89 Previous Week’s Low

1970

1968 (6/24/14 Intraday Top: 1968.17)

1965

1964

1963 (6/20/14 Closing High: 1962.87)

1962

1961

1960

1959.75 (100-week MA)

1958

1956 (6/9/14 Intraday Top: 1955.55)

1951 (6/9/14 Closing High: 1951.27)

1949

1947

1946

1942

1940

1937

1936

1931

1928

1924 (5/30/14 Intraday Top: 1924.03) (5/13/14 Closing High: 1923.57)

1920

1917

1912

1910

1906

1902 (5/13/14 Intraday Top: 1902.17)

1901

1897 (5/13/14 Closing High: 1897.45) (4/4/14 Intraday Top: 1897.28)

1896

1891 (4/2/14 Closing High: 1890.90)

1889

1886

1885

1884 (3/21/14 Intraday Top: 1883.97) (3/7/14 Intraday Top: 1883.57)

1882

1880

1879

1878 (3/7/14 Closing High: 1878.04)

1877

1874

1872

1871

1868

1867

1865

1862

1859

1855

1853

1852

1851 (1/15/14 Intraday Top: 1850.84)

1849 (12/31/13 Intraday High Top for 2013: 1849.44)

1848 (1/15/14 Closing High: 1848.38) (12/31/13 Closing High for 2013: 1848.36)

1846

1845

1843

1842

1841

1840

1839

1838

1837

1835

1832

1831

1828

1827

1824.59 (150-week MA)

1824

1820

1816

1814 (11/29/13 Intraday Top: 1813.55)

1812 (12/9/13 Intraday Top: 1811.52)

1810

1809 (12/9/13 Closing Top: 1808.37)

1808

1807 (11/27/13 Closing Top: 1807.23)

1806

1803

1801

1800

1799 (11/18/13 Intraday Top: 1798.82)

1798 (11/15/13 Closing Top: 1798.18)

1796

1793

1791

1788

1785

1783

1782

1781

1777

1775 (10/30/13 Intraday Top: 1775.22)

1772 (10/29/13 Closing Top: 1771.95)

1770

1768

1763

1762

1759

1756

1752

1748

1747

1745

1740

1737

1733 (10/17/13 and 1018/13 Gap-Up: 1733.15-1736.72)

1730 (9/19/13 Intraday Top: 1729.86)

1726 (9/18/13 Closing Top: 1725.52)

1722

1720

1711

1710 (8/2/13 Intraday Top: 1709.67)

1708

1706

1704.79 (200-week MA)

1703

1700

1698

1697

1696

1693

1692

1691

1689

1688

1687 (5/22/13 Intraday Top: 1687.18)

1686

1685

1683

1682

1680

1675

1673.94 (50-month MA)

1672

1669 (5/21/13 Closing Top: 1669.16)

1666

1664

1661

1659

1657

1652

1650

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart Tight Standard Deviation Bands Squeeze a Move Lower in Price

The SPX weekly chart was posted a week or so ago and the tight pink standard deviation lines (pink arrows) were highlighted since a major move was coming. Tight bands, however, do not foretell direction, only that the price move will be big one way or the other. The SPX has only had this tight of bands two other times once in 1966 which was the end of a bull market and in 1994 which ushered in volatility. The bands were tight back in the summer of 2011 which resulted in the August 2011 waterfall crash but those bands were nowhere near the tight bands now.

The tight band squeeze occurs and price squirts to the downside. The lower band is 2029 and price is currently a huge 60 points lower a massive displacement. Price will need to revert to the mean (higher). The middle band, also the 20-week MA, is 2094 and dropping and is in play since the lower band was violated. Price will eventually want to come up and touch the middle band so that may occur anywhere between 2030 and 2090. Price has not back kissed the 200-week MA since late 2011.

The Chinese stock market drama is affecting US stocks these days so decisions by the PBOC will influence the SPX direction. The epic Federal Reserve rate decision that will create huge market theatrics is on Thursday, 9/17/15. Fed Chair Yellen will decide the entire fate of global markets. The epic up and down erratic market behavior occurring now should continue into October.

The red lines show the neggie d spankdown Keystone described as it set up and occurred over the last few months. Note that the indicators are all printing lower lows, weak and bleak, wanting to see further lows in price after any bounce would occur. The VIX is up near 30 so the point moves in the stock market will be very large going forward both intraday and day to day. Thus, a big rally may occur shooting the SPX up over 2K again but the elevated VIX could very well flush the SPX straight back down the next day or two by a big amount, and then up hugely the day or two after that. You get the idea. Check the seat belt on your computer chair since you may need strapped in for the ride. The weekly chart above hints that stocks may remain weak into Fed Chair Yellen's rate decision on 9/17/15 which will obviously be a key pivot point. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

AAPL Apple Daily Chart -20% Bear Market

Apple prints a triple top or even a quadruple top during Feb-May. Price peaks at 133.60 on 2/24/15; 134.54 on 4/28/15; 132.97 on 5/22/15; 132.97 on 7/20/15. The red lines sow the negative divergence spank downs (red arrows). A -10% correction from 135 is 121.50; that gave way almost three weeks ago. A -20% bear market is at 108 and lower. Whoopsies daisies, Apple lost this level and is now in a bear market. At the 105.76 price, AAPL is down -21.4% from the peak top in late April. Quick, run out and buy an iPhone to help them out. The news a few days ago that China smartphone sales drop for the first time ever is dampening the enthusiasm for Apple, other smarphone makers and their suppliers.

There is key support at 105, call it 104-106 exactly where it parked for the weekend. The indicators are positively diverged wanting to see a bounce in price sans the MACD line that is leaking a touch lower. The RSI is dead level with the prior low about three weeks ago so that may slip negative which will require a couple days for a more firm bottoming in price.

AAPL may bounce right away due to the possie d with the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow, but then after a day or two retreat again to test the 104-106 area. At that time verify that the MACD line is positively diverged to know a bottom is in and Apple should rally. The 104-106 support should hold, for now, but look at all those juicy gaps at 94-103 that will need filled at some point.

The AAPL weekly chart is sick with chart indicators RSI, MACD linie, stochastics and money flow all indicating lower lows in price desired in early September. Thus, the daily chart above is setting up to bounce but if you decide to ride it higher do not get too greedy; sell it on the bounce since the weekly chart remains ugly and should re-exert itself. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

DAX Germany Daily Chart Approaching Bear Market

The DAX peaked on 4/10/15 at 12391 so the 10125 print creates a -18.4% move off the top. Only -1.6% more will create -20% reversal placing the DAX in a bear market. The DAX is clearly in correction mode down more than -10%.

The year began at 9887 so the DAX remains up 238 points on the year; +2.4%. The ECB's obscene Keynesian money printing has not helped the cause this year except for the initial rally into the April top where the wealthy locked in profits and raped the system for all it is worth. A -20% bear market occurs at 9913 interestingly in the same area as the starting year number at 9887. Thus, the psychological 9900 level takes on epic importance. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

COMPQ Nasdaq Composite Daily Chart -10% Correction Territory

The Nasdaq peaked on 7/20/15 at 5232. A -10% correction occurs at 4709 and lower. Price closed at 4706 at the low on Friday. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart

Here is the 2-hour chart updated from Friday. The green expansion pattern played out but instead of price bouncing at the lower rail at 2025-ish, it failed. Indiscriminate selling was taking place on Friday. Traders ran in to buy put protection at any price sending the CPC and CPCE put/call ratio's to uber panic and fear levels (where a market bottom typically occurs). Traders threw out the baby with the bathwater and even threw out the bathtub. Several investors jumped from windows. Luckily the windows were on the ground floor.

The indicators did not set up with positive divergence so a recovery in price did not occur. The stochastics are positively diverged (green lines) so that indicates the need for a bounce in price right now, in this 2-hour candlestick time frame, but the other indicators are weak and bleak wanting to see a lower low in price after any bounce occurs. The RSI is in the cellar so that simply needs a dead-cat bounce like the stoch's since it cannot fall any lower.

The chart needs from two to four candlesticks of time for the indicators to positively diverge and plant a firm bottom for a recovery rally; this is from 4 to 8 hours of trading time so a bottom can occur anytime Monday into Tuesday morning. China dictates global stock market action to begin the week. If the PBOC provides stimulus to goose the SSEC higher, the week will begin happy, if not, the week will begin sad. If the PBOC central banker intervention occurs that will likely override the chart indicators above and a 'V' bottom will occur with price perhaps spiking wildly and strongly higher; probably back to 2K and higher lickety-split.

The elevated VIX near 30 says the stock market point moves will remains very large both intraday and day to day. So look for 15 to 40 point erratic moves in the SPX and moves up and down in the Dow Industrials of 200, 300, or more points should be common going forward. It should be quite a ride in the week ahead. The expectation would be for stabilization in here at 1960-1980 and a relief rally back to 2000-2030. Watch for possie d on the indicators to know the bottom is in place. Remember, China may announce stimulus at anytime to goose their markets which will likely create an immediate rally. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart

The CPC put/call ratio is up into the panic and fear area above 1.20 so a near-term market bottom is on tap at anytime in the days ahead. The previous CPC chart highlighted the move above 1.20 where a market bottom would be expected at anytime but instead, the stock market mini-crashes and the CPC explodes to multi-year highs at 1.69.

Fear and panic is prevalent. Traders are buying put protection with total disregard for price. Investors are wringing their hands worried that the end of the world is at hand. Of course this is when stocks recover. The CPCE is elevated well into panic and fear territory as well and ditto the VIX that catapults to 30. All three signal a near term market bottom at hand. Interestingly, however, everybody and his bro are calling for a bottom so it may take a couple or few days more to shake out.

The central bankers control the stock market so all eyes and ears are focused on China. The SSEC Shanghai Index begins trading at 9:30 PM EST (Sunday evening in the States) and the question is whether the PBOC will step in to defend the 3500 level, or not. If the PBOC provides stimulus, the bottom is likely in for stocks and a relief rally will begin. If the PBOC remains quiet and the SSEC fails below 3500, then a cascading global stock market rout will likely continue to begin the week.

Nonetheless, the fear and panic tells you to nibble on long plays since a tradeable bottom is very near. It may happen at Monday's opening bell but if not, is likely to occur say by mid-week. The market bottoms are usually 'V' events so once the recovery rally begins stocks may rocket strongly higher.

With a higher VIX, stock market moves will become more dramatic intraday and day to day so 200 and 300 point, and more, moves in the Dow may be common for the days ahead. Strap yourself in. It would not be surprising to see a big sharp recovery move in stocks to knock your socks off, but then another quick reversal to the down side of many points, then a reversal again to the upside with lots of points, all occurring this coming week. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SSEC Shanghai Index Daily Chart PBOC Defending 3500

The stakes are high this weekend. The Chinese communists had to step in to support the market on Friday to prevent a failure at 3500. The LOD was 3490. The PBOC (China's central bank) has been holding the line at the 200-day MA as the chart clearly shows. China lost the 200-day MA at 3660 on Friday.

The expectation would be for the PBOC to announce more stimulus perhaps another rate cut or more reductions to the bank triple R's (reserve requirement ratios that dictate the reserves that must be held by banks). Lower reserves promotes more lending. China is quiet as this message is typed Sunday morning in the states. China is 12 hours ahead of eastern US time. It is surprising that the PBOC has not yet announced measures this weekend to pump the stock market higher.

If 3500 fails, complete confidence may be lost in China which will lead to indiscriminate selling. the selling would then cascade around the world as the selling did late last week. If the PBOC announces stimulus, global stock markets should begin the week on a happy note. The SSEC begins trading at 9:30 PM EST this evening (9:30 AM Shanghai, China, local time Monday morning).

China failed to maintain the 200-day MA support at 3660 but intervention did stop the failure at 3500. This area is where the PBOC instituted a rate cut in March to begin the parabolic rise in the stock market.  The 3500-3660 range is critical. Price is breaking downward from the sideways symmetrical triangle. The vertical side of the triangle is 800-900 handles so the failure at 3770 targets 2800-3000. Back tests of the 200-day MA at 3660 and the lower triangle trend line at 3775-ish are in play.

The SSEC is controlled by the PBOC's decisions so if they decide to pump then stocks go higher if the PBOC remains quiet this weekend, the SSEC will probably drop like a stone. It is shameful how the global central bankers have destroyed markets over the last six years with their obscene Keynesian money printing. The Federal Reserve started the sick behavior by goosing the US stock market with easy money beginning in March 2009 and not allowing markets to properly correct and clear. Capitalism and free markets died in 2009. All eyes and ears are on China in the coming hours which will set the tone for global stock markets to begin the week. What say you Chinese communists? Are you going to print more money to goose your stock market higher? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart

The green lines on the price chart show the expansion pattern playing out with the brown dots price moving from the upper trend line to the bottom then back again. The expansion pattern is also called a megaphone pattern. Now that price is at the bottom a stabilization may occur with a move higher coming soon. The green lines show positive divergence for the indicators across the last month time frame, however, the MACD line and histogram are weak and bleak. Ditto for the very short term few-hour moves showing lower prices desired after any bounce occurs (red lines).

Thus, it may take from 1 to 4 candlesticks to place a bottom in price with the indicators universally positively diverged to create the bounce. This equates to 2 to 8 hours of trading time. This would take the stock market through today's action and into Monday lunch time. The CPC put/call chart posted a couple charts ago shows that a near-term bounce is desired very soon so markets should seek a bottom say this afternoon or on Monday.

Traders may take on a wait and see approach today into the weekend. With the SSEC Shanghai Index dropping to near 3500, losing the critical 200-day MA at 3650, the PBOC may step in this weekend to goose the market with more stimulus (rate cut or triple R cuts) and defend the 3500 level. If so, stocks will likely rally strongly on Monday. If the Beijing communists are quiet all weekend long, stocks will likely open very soft on Monday and perhaps seek new lows.

The tight standard deviation lines squeezed price lower (pink) and price has violated the lower band so a move back to the center band is now in play at 2075 and dropping. Prior charts highlight key moving average and other resistance levels, especially the 2057-2061 level, so keep that in mind when price recovers. The middle standard deviation band, which is also the 20 MA, is dropping like a stone so on Monday or even later today will be fallilng towards that 2057-2061 area so price will likely bounce to back test this area. The 2059 is where the SPX started this year.

Thus, mixing all this mumbo jumbo together and sprinkling magic dust on it, the SPX will likely move sideways bumping around here or lower at these levels into this afternoon where a near-term bottom occurs either later today or on Monday. Make sure the MACD line turns possie d (the MACD begins sloping up with price printing matching or lower lows) which will tell you the bottom is in. Until then, price will languish lower. The SPX drops to 2009 as this is typed at the lows of the day down 26 points, -1.3%. Bears are biting off chunks of bull flesh. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/22/15: Stocks fall into a mini-crash event on Friday afternoon, the SPX collapses to 1971 under this year's low at 1980. The indicators on the 2-hour chart above continue to slope lower and have not developed positive divergence as yet. A firm bottom remains 1 to 4 candlesticks away which is 2 to 8 hours of trading time which would encompass all of Monday's trading and potentially into Tuesday morning before the bottom is in. The VIX, CPC and CPCE put/call ratio's and other indicators signal a near-term bottom at hand, however, everybody and his brother is now expecting a bounce so it may take a couple days while more weak hands are shaken out. The stochastics on the 2-hour are positively diverged which should create a relief bounce on Monday but other indicators would like to see lower lows in price after the bounce occurs for a couple hours. The wildcard is China and if stimulus is announced this weekend which will likely catapult stocks higher. So far, the Beijing communists are quiet.

RUT Russell 2000 Small Caps Daily Chart Enters -10% Correction Territory

The Russell 2000 small caps fall into correction mode down in excess of -10% off the June top. A -10% move is a correction and a -20% move is a bear market. The top was 1296 so 1166 is a -10% correction. The print at 1160 represents a -10.5% drop off the June top. The black circle shows that the death cross pattern should occur next month or perhaps as early as next week.

Note the flattening 150-day MA. This gauge can be used for all your stock plays. If the 150-day MA continues to flatten and roll over then it is curtains for the stock market. Market bulls need to push the 150-day MA higher as soon as possible or they will lose complete control of the stock market for months to come. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.