NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40-Week MA Cross

Long-time followers have seen this indicator many times over the years. Long-time reminds you of a song. Foreplay/Long Time by Boston. A key cyclical stock market indicator is the NYA 40-week MA cross. What? There's that Greek again. What is he talking about?

The festivities are starting. The NYA weekly chart above is in full negative divergence across all indicators so the top is locked-in on the weekly basis. The stochastics and money flow are overbot agreeable to a pullback. It is up in nosebleed territory so it has a long way down to come once it gives up the ship.

The NYA 40-wk MA at 22626 and rising is the cyclical bull/bear line in the sand. Price is at 23817 so about 1200 points above. The bulls are sipping Fed wine and smoking fine cigars dabbing the ashes onto the faces of the huddled masses. A drop to the critical line in the sand that would send stocks into a cyclical bear market and pain and misery ahead is only -5% away.

However, the weekly chart is now neggie d. Thus, it will receive a spankdown and drop for several weeks. The 5% could disappear quickly so keep an eye on it. Write 22.7K on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. If price drops to that level, you know that the stock market is likely falling into the abyss.

The bears are up at bat going forward so let's see if they can first attain the 23K level that is the 20-wk MA. Just think, late this year and in 2027, it is likely that price will be all the way down to touch and fall through the 200-week MA. There is lots of congestion at 19K-20K so it may take effort to saw through that level down the road.

If you bring up the NYA monthly chart, you can see all the indicators in negative divergence except the MACD line. This is on a multi-month basis and tells you that THE top is at our doorstep. We are talking a 2000 dot-com bubble, or 2008-2009 Great Recession. The weekly chart above is topped out so over the next couple weeks, as July ends, watch the MACD on the monthly because it will tell you on 7/31/26 if THE long-term multi-month perhaps multi-year top is in place. If the MACD starts sloping down by month-end, it is over folks. The multi-week downside will be child's play compared to the gloom, despair, pain and agony ahead on the monthly basis. In the 1970's and early 1980's, Hee-Haw was a fun show that families would watch together on Saturday night at 7 PM EST and then All in the Family would be on after that. Gloom, Despair, and Agony On Me. 

If the MACD remains upward-sloping at the end of this month, the NYA may need a month or two before THE top is in place to provide time for the MACD to go neggie d. Also in play is the MACD up in nosebleed territory so if it fell without going neggie d, that would not be surprising (THE long-term top is now with the weekly chart rolling over and the monthly to follow).

What does all that mumbo-jumbo mean? I don't understand half the stuff this guy is saying. Very simply, the top is in for the NYA right now on the weekly basis so it will travel lower, in a couple fits and starts, for several weeks. If the MACD line on the monthly chart rolls over, it is over for the stock market on a long-term basis. If the MACD on the monthly still slopes higher on 7/31/26, THE top will only be delayed by a month or two at most (a few weeks) and you would have to stay on guard since it could fall apart at any time. You are watching a significant long-term top form in real-time.

This is a lot different analysis than all the yahoo's on television and the internet calling for SPX 8.3K and higher by year end and SPX 9K in 2027. What are they smoking. Tell them to get out of those vape shops and get back to work. They will probably see a 5-handle on the SPX at year-end instead of an 8-handle. As things slide lower, you know what to watch; 22.7K-ish. Roy Clark was a musician's musician; his abilities were legendary but he always liked to have fun, act goofy, and play down his exceptional talent, to constantly surprise the audience, a hallmark of a great entertainer. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.