Are you a bag holding sucka in Scamazon? There were a couple of idiots on television today telling folks to buy AMZN with both hands. That's funny. Amazon is cooked, crispy fried, on a long-term multi-month basis. Stick a fork in it. Jeff Bezos knew when to exit stage left. Every investment house and money manager owns funds with Amazon as part of the make up, or recommends that investors keep AMZN in their portfolios. Suckers. It's funny.
The chart above is a POS. What is so hard to understand? Are you blind? You look but you do not see. Let's take a look at the mess. The red rising wedge is a bearish pattern and the collapses from rising wedges can be quite dramatic. Price teeters on the lower rail support of the rising wedge.
Most importantly, the chart is in full negative divergence across all chart indicators. As price made new highs, on the monthly basis, the indicators are now all sloping lower and out of gas unable to take price to new highs again. AMZN receives the initial neggie d spankdown off the top but she has a long ways down to go. The RSI and stochastics are coming off overbot levels agreeable to a pullback.
The ADX pink boxes show that the last strong trend was higher but it petered out in 2022 as the COVID-19 pandemic came to an end. As Amazon price then recovered and moved higher, the ADX tried to register it as a strong trend but alas, it petered out and all the record highs up in this nosebleed territory are hype and fluff. People are just buying Amazon stock just because it is Amazon. The long players that would buy then sell, then buy again, always looking for the bigger fool, are now looking around realizing no one wants to buy anymore, and accepting that they are the bigger fool left holding the bag.
The Aroon green line shows that most every bull still believes AMZN will go up forever. That is no surprise. They are big bulls for Amazon stock and fanboys. The funny thing is the red line shows that most all the bears also believe that Amazon stock will go up forever. Everyone is on one side of the boat. The bears have given up on shorting it. You know what happens next and the neggie d spankdown and multi-month pullback has already started.
The stock did a round trip during the COVID-19 pandemic jumping from one hundo up to 180 then coming back down to one hundo as the pandemic ended and the covid endemic phase began (covid behaves like the regular flu now). The upper band is violated so a trip back to the middle band at 227 is on the table also the lower band at 184, both rising sharply.
Price is/was extended above the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower. The blue starts show the prior tops where price was extended too far above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 200. Those pullbacks were 37 points, 100 points, 50 points, 60 points and 64 points. Thus, we can get mathy with this. Mathematicians say thus, therefore, and ergo, a lot, that is why Keystone's invitation to the July 4th party got lost in the mail. Let's say the top is 275 so taking away the smallest pullback at 37 would be a 238 downside target not too far from here. Taking the biggest mean reversion pull back at one hundo points, that would target 175 as the destination over the coming months. If you average the pullbacks, you get 62 points as the average mean reversion so that would target 213.
Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's to 8's on the way down. If price came down to 220-ish, that opens the door wide to get to 180. The first test is the 12-mth MA at 236. If a stock or index falls below its 12-mth MA it can be considered to be falling into a cyclical bear market.
Amazon is a POS. That is why Bezos ditched it. He milked it for all it was worth and he git while the gittin' was good. Call your money manager and tell them to get you out of Scamazon stock. They will tell you that you are in for the long term. Tell them the ole Wall Street adage that "in the long term you will be dead."
AMZN should continue lower on a monthly basis for the remainder of the year and into 2027. It is reasonable to expect a pullback to the 180-200 area and then it can be reassessed to see how far down she will really go. Keystone is not long or short AMZN and has not played it in a couple years or more. Get out of Scamazon and save yourself while you are able.
On the wekly chart, it receives a neggie d spankdown for the last 5 weeks and is hesitating at the 20 and 50-wk MA's at 231-238. Real trouble begins if this fails. The indicators are agreeable to the sideways hesitation but the MACD remains weak and bleak wanting to see further lows in price on the weekly basis that means the 231 may get tested over the next couple weeks.
On the daily chart, you can see the positive divergence bouncing the stock price now on the daily basis. This may continue a few days. The 50-day MA resistance is at 255. So the daily chart says up, the weekly chart is sideways favoring a downward bias, and the monthly chart is gonzo and has started a multi-month pullback. Of course there will be fits and starts but Scamazon will likely meander lower from now into 2027. That will surprise a lot of people especially those that keep saying buy, buy, buy over the last couple months. They are the bagholders.
Amazon and Apple monthly charts are similar They are receiving the short-term boost in the daily time frame but the long-term charts are challenged. AMZN's monthly chart is cooked as explained above but AAPL is trying to squeeze one last drop out before it begins its long multi-month descent for the remainder of the year into 2027. Plan accordingly. Keystone is not in AAPL long or short either. Amazon women are big and beautiful but California Girls are special. Lovely ladies from the 80's and 90's. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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