GTX Commodities Daily Chart Explains Trumpflation

The story of Trumpflation is a twisted tale. King Donnie Chumpski has done nothing to lower prices for common Americans. Toss that campaign promise in the trash with the others. GTX and CRB charts are the same. Both tickers are made up of many commodities, including oil, and are a representation of goods inflation. Of course, when oil prices rise, you feel it at the gasoline pump and those higher fuel costs increase prices across the board.

Sleepy Joe Biden was a mess of a president but what can you expect from a man with early onset of dementia, and Alzheimer's on the side, that spent each day eating chocolate pudding and looking for his hat. Inflation was bumping higher as Trump was elected in November 2024 and the path of higher inflation continued into early 2025. A pullback occurs in goods inflation as prices ebb and flow with the seasons and other factors. Donnie Chump is quick to pounce on the good news and claims credit for lowering inflation within a few months of his presidency. That joy did not last long.

Trumpski then imposed tariffs on other countries starting April 2025 friend or foe. It was a mechanism that guaranteed that the attention, and cameras, would be pointed at his orange face every day forward; it was a narcissist's dream. Of course, tariffs increase inflation as the orange dolt proclaims that tariffs will decrease inflation. He is not a very smart man, in fact, he is a low IQ individual that is driven by his lust for daily attention and adoration.

At the end of February, over 4 months ago, King Donnie starts the Iran War an unmitigated mess. Oil prices catapult above $100 per barrel sending gasoline and other prices higher crushing the low-income family that already cannot pay the monthly bills. You can see in the chart that goods inflation retreated during late May and June, as oil price came back down with Donnie promising an end to his war, but that slight relief in higher prices has now gone up in a puff of smoke. Probably pot smoke these days. 

Donnie Chump re-escalates the Iran War so oil and other prices are on the rise again. King Donnie is as equally incompetent as Sleepy Joe Biden. Inflation has no effect on you when you are rich; you always buy what you want to buy.

The 30 million Americans at the top, that raped the US financial system for all it is worth starting with Ronnie Ray-gun in the 1980's, are asking why is everyone so glum? These privileged elite and the upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, that live in the McMansions, control the nation and the other 300 million folks are the peons at the bottom of the food chain that now view the American Dream as the American Joke. The middle class was gutted over the last six decades so the wealthy could have 10 homes, 32 cars, a $40,000 refrigerator, and send their kids to the best schools and colleges to perpetuate the class separation, and on top of all that complain daily about the taxes they pay. The Trumpflation saga is now added on top of that pig slop. Many common Americans cancel their drive and vacation to Atlantic City and the East Coast this year because of the debilitating Trumpflation. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 2:17 PM EST: The CPI inflation data is released this morning and the headline number is much tamer than expected at 3.5% versus 3.8% expected. This will make the Fed's job easier since they can stay on hold. They do not want to cut since employment remains steady and buoyant although the housing sector remains challenged. The Fed can delay a hike since inflation is no biggie as the happy data shows. Right? Wrong. The news is groovy for this data set but it represents that period in the chart above at the end of May and June with oil prices dropping and inflation improving, just as the data shows. However, the same data that will be released next month, only about 30 days away, will reflect the upward spike in the maroon circle so everyone will be nervous about rising inflation again. GTX jumps higher to 5320 today so far. You can check CRB later since it is an EOD (end-of-day) chart. Despite the happy data today, you can smell a faint and foul odor of persistent inflation. The jukes and jives with data from one month to the next increases the market drama.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 7/15/26, at 6:17 AM EST: Fed Chairman Warsh is testifying on Capitol Hill yesterday and today and he was baited to say inflation is tamed based on the CPI data. Warsh does not take the bait, since he is looking at charts like the GTX above, and says the inflation mission is not accomplished because the data will likely float higher again for next month. 

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/16/26: GTX is at 5288 trading above 5300 intraday the last couple days.

Note Added Saturday, 7/18/26: GTX 5364. Trumpflation is alive. It's Alive!

Note Added Tuesday Afternoon, 7/21/26: GTX 5471. She is running higher as the Iran War escalates and oil prices and other commodities shoot higher.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 7/23/26: WTIC oil catapults to 89.84 a hair away from 90. The GTX explodes higher to 5547. Trumpflation leads to higher prices across the board and America becomes less affordable for common people. The Iran War is an albatross that King Donnie wears around his orange neck.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 7/23/26, at 8:24 PM EST: WTIC oil catapults to 93.42 now at 92.55. Brent crude oil jumps to 101.71 now at 100.94. The oil price at one hundo creates a negative vibe. GTX explodes higher to 5679 printing above 5.7K today. Trumpflation will create pain for average Americans. The Iran War mess continues with King Donnie Chump mouthing off that he will hit Iran hard with military action. The bloviations are getting old. Of course Trump announces this drama so you have to tune in tomorrow to find out his decision. Each day is a reality television episode to Trumpy and he makes sure there is content available so a camera will remain locked on his orange narcissistic head. He will probably chicken out again or if he moves forward with his so-called bigtime military action, it will likely not change the status of the quagmire war. Anyone that owns, or is employed by, a business that is highly dependent on fuel (diesel, gasoline, etc..), is screwed. Interestingly, the jump in inflation, er Trumpflation, mainly due to skyrocketing oil prices, is supply driven. The Fed may hike rates next week, now at a 35% chance due to the rising inflation, but hikes are more helpful for inflation that is demand-driven instead of supply-driven. Fed Chairman Warsh will bring the tablets down from On High next week to tell traders how to trade.