NVDA NVIDIA Monthly Chart; Overbot Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence Developing; Price Extended; Upper Band Violation

The long-term, multi-month, perhaps multi-year, chart for NVDA is setting up with a top due to neggie d. All the Wall Street analysts are telling Joe Sixpack to buy with both hands, as they sell. Volume is Slip Slidin' Away as all-time record highs are printed with Jensen waving the latest AI Reuben sandwich (Rubin) chip in the air. The overbot RSI and stochastics are agreeable to a long-term pullback.

Price is above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. Price tagged the upper band so the middle band at 121 is on the table and lower band at 63 both moving sharply higher.

When will NVIDIA sing the swan song? Two scenarios. The red lines show negative divergence as price makes the higher highs with the exception of the MACD line that is a hair higher. The month of August has a long way to go, however, so the end points of the chart indicators will adjust for the next 16 trading days (the month is in progress).

Thus, currently, all the indicators want a spankdown to start and continue on the monthly basis except for the MACD that wants another high. Price will falter due to the negativity but only for a month and then it will come back up again to the current highs to place the long-term top when the MACD goes neggie d in September or October.

However, since August has a long way to go, NVDA may drop like a rock and that will drag the MACD line lower to end the month of August that would then show universal neggie d across all the indicators so the long-term top would be in now, this month. Watch that blue circle closely over the next 3 weeks and you will know if NVDA is making its long-term top right now, this month, or if it has some more juice in the MACD tank to bring it back up after a lull and top out in a month or two.

What's that? Your financial manager said to invest in NVDA and hold it for the long-term. Who's your broker? Fred Fafooshinik. Freddie? Keystone saw him yesterday. He was selling NVDA stock and liquidating positions. That makes you the bag holdin' sucka.

Let's take a look at the weekly chart to see if that can help with the timing of the top. The weekly chart is also topping out with neggie d although the move over the last couple weeks had juice. The daily chart is cooked with neggie d. NVIDIA is ready to start retreating now.

The charts are weak so NVDA should be pushed lower going forward and if the MACD line drops below the prior high, she is cooked for many months, say, through the end of the year into the first few months of next year.

Remember, the SPX monthly chart is cooked with neggie d forecasting a long-term top at hand so it makes sense that NVDA is starting to slip on the cliff edge as well. Keystone is not playing NVDA long or short currently but obviously, the play going forward is on the short side staying aware that it is a high momentum stock. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 8/14/25, at 6:05 AM EST: Let's take a look at everyone's favorite child. The NVDA 2-hour chart is topped out. Ditto the daily in full neggie d. Ditto the weekly chart although that MACD line is trying to keep eking out a bit more strength. This is the top now or within a week or so unless Jensen shows up on stage waving a new chip beyond the Reuben sandwich chip (Rubin). The monthly chart remains as explained above with another 12 trading days remaining in August that may bring the MACD line down and identify this current projected top as a serious long-term multi-month and perhaps multi-year top for NVIDIA. How dare Keystone utter such blasphemy!!

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Tight Bands Project Big Move At Hand

That is a tight band. Counting Crows playing Daylight Fading. No, not that kind of tight band. Tight standard deviation bands (purple arrows). The bands have not been this tight since the 2/19/25 top that resulted in the big drawdown for equities. Tight bands tell you that the move coming is going to be big but they do not tell direction. Keystone always describes it as squeezing a tube of toothpaste; you know it will violently shoot-out of the tube but you have no idea where it will fly. The bands are in tight squeezing price.

You can see that the February top, that Keystone explained at the time, was in full negative divergence so the expectation was down and the tight bands sent the SPX to Hades. It is the same set-up now but there is lots of drama led by King Donnie the three-ring circus showman. The Fed is going political due to the daily Whitehouse intervention. The orange head could not find anyone dumb enough to move their family and life to smelly Washington, DC, for a five-month job replacing Kugler so he gives the position to sycophant Miran that is already living in the swamp and the commute to the Eccles Building is not a long drive. Donnie is sticking his nose in Brazil, India, many countries, telling them how to operate or conduct business.

Trumpski spits on capitalism dictating that American CEO's kneel before his throne daily to kiss the ring and conduct business as the orange head demands. The latest is Donnie decreeing that the Intel CEO resign. And many of you think this is cool? And most of you think capitalism actually exists? That's funny. Capitalism only exists in theoretical business textbooks because of human greed. It's that simple. America is a faux free market crony capitalism financial system, corrupt to the core, in its last throes. Get with the program.

There was no reason for price to come back up in the daily time frame since the neggie d was universal when the top was placed a week ago. Nevertheless, the SPX rises for five days and fills the gap above that is a good thing for bears as previously mentioned.

Note that the bounce in price was not due to the set-up of positive divergence. The few-day rally is purely due to news and happy Donnie talk and rate-cut expectations. You would think rate cuts have long since been priced into the stock market but there is buoyancy in equities when Chairman Powell coughs and it sounds like he said rate cut.

Further, the stochastics were weak and bleak after the SPX bottom wanting price to make lower lows not move higher. Look at the MACD line. Comically, it is still going lower despite the multi-day comeback move. The expectation would be for failure and a squeeze lower in equities. Watch to see if the RSI, stochastics and money flow go sub 50% into bear territory. Can the orange head muster up more happy talk or is it all sounding like a bunch of bull sh*t?

Well, what do you think? Black Friday? Black Monday? Friday, I'm In Love. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

One of Keystone's standard short-term signals is the SPX 60-minute with 200 EMA cross. Say what? What is this odd language he speaks? Tell this guy to speak English. You can see last Friday how the bottom fell out after the job report, gapping down and violating the 200 EMA at 6255 opening the door to a short-term bear market going forward.

Alas, the bulls eat their spinach and come to play Monday morning with the SPX gapping-up with a dip-buying orgy so obscene it would make Caligula blush. Traders were buying any stock with a heartbeat and the bulls win back control of the stock market with price back above the 200 EMA at 6255.

The SPX sits at 6299 so bears need 44 points and more of downside to show that they mean business. The bears should be thankful for the recovery move since it filled the orange gap from Friday morning. This buttons-up the topside and allows price to move steadily lower from here without worries about having to move higher to fill a gap. The gap from Monday will want to be filled and that would take place if/when price goes down for another test of the 200 EMA at 6255.

The 20-day MA is 6311 and price plays to and fro along this important moving average the last couple days. Thus, putting it all together, the 6299 price is below the 20 so the door is open for the SPX to drop and fill the lower gap and retest the critical 200 EMA at 6255. This behavior will dictate if a short-term bear market is locked-in going forward, or not.

If the SPX recovers back above 6311, the bulls will stick a thumb, er hoof, into the bears eye and not worry about any downside ahead. If 6255 fails, stocks will be falling like rocks. Are we going back to Rockville? Don't Go Back To Rockville. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily, Weekly and Monthly Charts; Negative Divergence; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Historic AI Bubble Stock Market Top

The SPX begins receiving the negative divergence spankdown. Divergences are the most powerful force in stock trading both neggie d and possie d. The SPX charts are toast. Trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess but time instead of space are the dimensions. As seen above, the stock market is sh*tting the bed in the daily, weekly and monthly timeframes. That is ugly.

A rising wedge pattern appears on the daily chart a bearish pattern. Stocks made the new record high at 6427.02 on Thursday, 7/31/25, then began puking its guts out receiving the neggie d smackdown. All the chart indicators are in negative divergence (red lines) as price made the new highs so the SPX was on borrowed time and it receives a slap to the face, like Keystone when he was fresh with Missy many years ago.

The standard deviation bands are pulling in tight on the daily which places force behind the move. Since it has already dropped towards the bottom band, a move to touch the 6196 would be in order. The blue circles show 9 distribution days during June and July. That is the smart money sloughing off shares to the dumb money such as Joe Sixpack, Juanita Retail, Carlos Bagholder, Frank Fool and Carmelita Sucka (the selling volume candlestick is higher than the buying volume candlestick the day before; the sucka's get bulled-up on hype and run in after an up day to buy the market and that is when the institutions distribute shares to these suckers and bagholders).

The indicators on the daily chart remain weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in price on the daily basis. The RSI slips below 50% into bear territory saying goodbye to the joy since April. Watch the stochastics to see if they do the same that will tell you more weakness ahead on the daily basis.

On the weekly chart, same dealio with the neggie d; it is universal across all chart indicators and the multi-week spankdown begins. The weekly chart is showing neggie d not only across the last year but also for the last two weeks as the stock market prints the highest number in history. It is a piece of crap. A multi-week pullback begins.

On the monthly chart, same dealio with the negative divergence; it is universal across all chart indicators and the multi-month spankdown begins. This is the chart that tells you the stock market is in serious trouble and likely printed an epic top like the dot-com bubble top in 1999-2000, and Greenspan's real estate bubble top and Great Recession in 2008-2009. It is the 2025 Artificial Intelligence bubble top but that does not have a ring to it; let's call it the AI bubble top (even though stocks were also pushed up for many years by the Fed's money-printing that rewarded the wealthy class with higher stock prices for doing nothing; it is called crony capitalism filth that is in its last throes; the 30 million Americans, that screwed the other 300 million over the last 5 decades, are still spending money, having a great time, their consumer spending is helping the economy avoid a recession, so far).

There is no hope for stocks, folks. Massive good news would be needed to turn things around. Recent tariff announcements are met with yawns. That is what King Donnie gets for overexposure of his orange puss each day. You would get sick of your favorite song if you played it 114 times in a row, right? Donnie is the reality television show president and each day is a new episode so he has to get on camera and spew a bunch of stuff to keep the audience's attention and keep the hype going. That schtick gets old and Americans are worried about the plot twists ahead for the next 3 years as his reality television show continues and the tv cannot be turned off.

The daily chart wants to continue lower for a few days. Watch for positive divergence to develop and you can call the bottom when it occurs. The weekly chart, however, remains weak and bleak, so after the daily chart would recover for a few days, it will roll back over and die again. Watch for positive divergence to develop on the weekly chart and you can call that bottom when it occurs probably later this month or in September. However, the monthly chart is weak and bleak calling for many months of downside if not at least a year or two, so after the weekly chart tries to recover off its possie d bottom, say in September and October, it should roll over again to honor the weakness in the monthly timeframe ahead. It is likely that stocks will trail lower, with fits and starts, through the end of the year and into 2026.

The Sunday night futures and Monday trading will be interesting to see if there is strong follow-thru, or weak follow-thru, or a reversal with the bulls fighting back. King Donnie will likely announce some happy talk and happy news about 4 PM EST today two hours before the S&P futures open to try and start the week off on an upbeat note. Instead of hearing happy D and C chords, he may be greeted with sad Em and Am chords. Will the bulls exclaim, "I don't like Monday's?" Boomtown Rats.

Keybot the Quant flipped short on Wednesday after the copper collapse and then the drop in retail stocks and banks on Friday sent equities off the cliff. Bulls have zero hope if they cannot retake XRT 78.03 and XLF 51.67 so watch these lines in the sand closely. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Chart; US Labor Recession is 23 Months Along and Counting

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 23 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING; NEXT MONTH IT WILL BE 2 YEARS!!

The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession (manufacturing lost another 11K jobs in the latest report) in addition to the labor recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot (it is nowhere in sight). The Godot Recession (the recession that never arrives) occurs because consumer spending by the wealthy Americans, that benefited from 15 years of Fed money-printing, remains robust. Also, the AI (artificial intelligence) hype and excitement delays the onset of the overall US recession.

How can this be? For many decades, if America is in a labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, than it is guaranteed to be in an overall US economic recession. Not anymore, buckaroo. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and that sector has gone great guns higher. Further, the AI hype sends stocks to the moon. The easy money provided by the Fed and Congress during the COVID-19 pandemic creates inflation and jobs galore. People cannot spend the free money fast enough. Employers begged for workers during 2022 and 2023 and into 2024 but not so much anymore in 2025. People that are losing their jobs nowadays are saying it is very difficult to find another job.

Companies and businesses know who they plan on sh*t-canning (layoffs) but are holding off a bit longer to see how the Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff War unfolds, or unravels.

Trump buckled and backpedaled on his tariff threats in April to prevent the stock market from falling further and more importantly, foreigners were losing confidence in the all-mighty US dollar and in treasuries (TACO; Trump Always Chickens Out). The orange head proclaimed a 90-day period for tariff talks, that then was extended to 8/1/25. 

For the 8/1/25 jobs report, a paltry 73K jobs are reported but the big news was that the two months of prior revisions were taken down by 258K jobs painting a sick labor market picture for the last three months. The unemployment rate, the Fed's key stat, moves higher from 4.1% to 4.2%. Most of the jobs were in the healthcare sector.

King Donnie does not like the jobs numbers that indicate a lackluster economy so he shoots the messenger. King Cry-Baby calls for the firing of the BLS Commissioner Erika McEntarfer. It is concerning that the orange baby would go ballistic so fast over data and make a quick irrational decision in a few minutes time. You would rather see a man with a calmer mind making decisions instead of a petulant adolescent that did not get his way. No wonder his approval rating is slipping.

The unemployment rate is for all the marbles. In the spring and at the last Fed meeting, Chairman Powell could not have been clearer about focusing on the unemployment rate. The Fed will not act to lower interest rates unless the US unemployment rate moves above 4.4%. This was the thinking from springtime but considering the daily pressure that Trumpski applies to Powell's thin shoulders, any number at or above 4.3% will likely cause the Fed to begin a rate-cut path.

The worry, however, is stagflation. The 1970's was a great decade for music, like Zep and Rock and Roll, it feels like yesterday, but the stagflation was killer and doomed President Jimmy Carter, who is often ridiculed in the media as a horrible president, but he was the last president that actually cared about common Americans. In the 70's, jobs were scarce and if you worked it was for peanuts. At the same time, prices went up and up; stagflation. This is likely our fate in 2025 and going forward.

A cash society was rampant in the 70's to avoid paying tax on items and services (this is why central banks in 2025 want a CBDC, central band digital currency, so they can make sure you pay every dime of tax while also controlling your life). The division between the have's and have-not's, the rich and poor, in America currently is the widest it has been since the 1970's when a routine mantra spoken by common folks was, "F#*% the rich." Let the modern-day class-war begin.

The Fed's mandate is price stability and maintaining low unemployment but what do you do when both are going in the wrong direction (joblessness increasing while inflation increases)? The Fed cannot cut rates to help with the housing and job markets if inflation runs higher due to the Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff War. Comically, the guy creating the inflation with his tariffs, King Donnie, is yelling at Powell to cut rates.

The Fed is likely less concerned about inflation on the margins and more concerned about growth and jobs thinking that the 4.3% or 4.4% and higher unemployment rate is the trigger-point to cut rates. 

The stage is set for the 9/5/25 jobs report. Will Donnie pull more jackass stuff and fire the new BLS head of statistics if he does not like the numbers again? Comically, his orange head will turn red going forward when the employment numbers start printing negative numbers. The current unemployment rate is 4.2% on the verge of 4.3%. The actual number is 4.248%. All of you remember high school math class and rounding numbers, right? If the rate was only 0.002 higher, that is two-one thousandths, it would have been 4.25 and rounded-up to a 4.3% rate. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.

The unemployment rate tagged 4.3% on 8/2/24, one year ago, and it looked like it was going to take off higher but alas, it fell back down and has bumped along in that sideways channel ever since. If the rate tags 4.3% and higher on 9/5/25, the Fed will likely cut in September and little baby Donnie will be happy.

Note how the rate has come down to touch the signal line four times over the last 23 months but the labor recession remains in play and now the blue line is again moving up and away making the 9/5/25 numbers even more important. When the unemployment rate moves higher, it is typically not gradual, instead it pops up strongly and that is what Powell and the Fed are worried about. It will likely pop higher in the next report.

Projecting the data forward, if the unemployment rate pops to 4.3% or 4.4% or higher, a big jump from the current 4.2%, bells, horns and whistles will sound at the Eccles Building. The Fed will be open to rate cuts starting in September so King Donnie will be happy for the bad news. If the rate remains at 4.2% or if it dips to 4.1%, the labor recession remains in play although it will be teetering on recovery and a happier jobs picture ahead. If the rate drops to 4.0%, that will signal a labor recovery and the end of the near 2-year labor recession (unlikely outcome).

Eastman Chemical reported disappointing results. Do you remember naughty Mrs Robinson? In the movie, Ben was told one important word, "Plastics." One of Keystone's many hats is a chemical engineer and when the chemical companies flounder, you got problems. The chemicals, resins, paints and other goodies in those tanks are the building blocks of the entire economy.

Fed Governors Waller and Bowman dissented against the Fed decision to remain on hold with rates. The two favor a rate cut now. Both are concerned about the labor data and are puffing their chests out after the jobs data yesterday. Waller is criticized for auditioning for the chairman job if Powell leaves before his term ends in May. Waller says the labor market is showing signs of weakening and the wait and see approach is too cautious of a posture (so a rate cut cycle should begin now). Bowman says she is worried about a deterioration in the labor market and prefers taking a proactive approach (and cutting rates now and going forward).

Now you have the full story folks. Get your popcorn ready for 9/5/25 circus. If you listen closely, you can hear the ongoing Trump administration calliope music in the background.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

The Keystone Speculator's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the short side yesterday afternoon at SPX 6348 after the copper crash comes out of left field due to the King Donnie Trade and Tariff War. The crash in the red metal was more important than the Fed decision and occurred before Pope Powell's presser.

Everyone is focused on tech due to earnings happiness but copper is the BMOC (big man on campus). If XRT loses -1.6% (retail stocks) and/or XLF loses -2.0%, that will tell you that the downside in equities has legs. If both remain bullish, stocks will likely remain buoyant.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Negative Divergence; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Price Extended; Upper Band Violation; SPX Printing All-Time Record Highs with Historic 2025 AI Bubble Top At Hand

Tomorrow is key for more earnings reports and the EOM. Friday is important for the US Monthly Jobs Report at 8:30 AM EST where the unemployment rate is key, as Chairman Powell said today, and of course King Donnie's tariff deadline is Friday, 8/1/25. But stuff all this noise into the end of a trombone because there is an event on Friday that is more important than all this dribble. What is it? The SPX monthly chart will start another candlestick on Friday for the month of August providing further insight into the historic 2025 AI Bubble top.

The euphoric bullishness continues in the stock market reminiscent of, and rhyming with, the Dot-Com Bubble in 1999/2000. The party was, and now is, in full swing with traders drunk as skunks picking stocks by throwing darts at the stock pages since all tickers go up forever. Tech can do no wrong so the Silicon Valley crowd, donning their flannel vests that sport a company logo, say the AI stocks will go up forever. The shoeshine boy, doorman, taxicab driver, Uber driver, and valet, are betting entire paychecks on triple-leveraged long ETF's bragging that they will be rich in quick order.

In the break room, loser Larry is boasting to pretty Emily, the administrative assistant, proclaiming that he is the next Jesse Livermore, a stock market guru, and will be a millionaire in quick order. Emily laughs, almost spilling her almond milk, proclaiming that she would never date a man that does not understand or respect negative divergence on the SPX monthly.

Anyhoo, the SPX monthly chart timeline is months and years; think long-term (LT). The jump off the April bottom is impressive with a big thrust but only serving to print a historic top that will likely be called the 2025 AI Bubble in the future. Note how price makes the new high on the monthly basis but every chart indicator is sloping down (negatively diverging) away from price that floats higher. The chart is out of gas and at a historic top due to universal negative divergence. The rising wedge pattern is bearish.

The RSI is trying to get above the prior high to prove that the bulls can stretch the top out for another month or two but as of now, the chart is a piece of sh*t ready to begin a multi-month and perhaps multi-year move lower. That is why the new candlestick is important starting Friday for Aust and it should maintain the neggie d top formation.

The all-time record high is 6409.26 on 7/29/25 and all-time closing high at 6389.77 on 7/28/25. Price almost touches the upper band at 6464. It is close enough for government work but do not be surprised if the bulls squeeze-out 6464 by week-end. S&P futures pop 50 handles this evening so that is a done deal if the joy holds through tomorrow. This opens the door to the middle band, the 20-mth MA, at 5597, and rising. The 10-month MA at 5927 and 12-mth MA at 5890 are important support levels. The 10 is an early warning signal that the stock market is in extremely serious trouble on the verge of crashing. A drop through 5890 would be lights out for equities setting up a drop to the April lows.

Price is over extended to the upside above the moving average ribbon so a mean reversion lower is needed. Just think, price should eventually go below the 200-mth MA at 2.7K and rising. Keystone calls the May 2015 top the last legitimate top in the stock market. Everything after that through now is a pile of pig slop where the crony capitalism made the wealthy class filthy rich at the expense of everyone else. It is easily conceivable that stocks will fall for the next year or two and end up sub 4K and probably down in the 1800-2200 range eventually. What fun it will be.

The ADX indicates that the last strong trend was higher in 2018. Despite the euphoric rally to all-time greatness in 2025, none of the last 7 years was considered a strong trend higher. The ADX now trails off to 22 heading lower even less inspired. For all-time record highs, the SPX should be above 30 running higher.

The Aroon verifies the euphoric out of control bullishness at play that further reinforces the AI Bubble top. The green line shows that 100% of the bulls remain 100% bullish; no surprise there, right? The red line shows that basically all the bears are also bullish. Pause for laughter. The bears are as rare as hen teeth and Keystone is told to walk the plank for his blasphemy against the stock market but the charts and technicals say, Sell, Mortimer, Sell.

When she cracks, it will likely be due to the banks and retail stocks so pay attention to those two sectors. Copper is in collapse. Look at the volume candlesticks above and big volume selling in February, March and April. The buying volume now is unable to surpass the selling volume in the spring; another negative. Joe Retail is buying but the institutions are backing away all too happy to slough-off shares to Joe, Carlos Bagholder and Carmelita Sucka that hangs out on Alvarado Street. 

Get out of the stock market and let that cash sit in your brokerage account for the next few months until you see what happens. If you remain in the market, you will lose your shirt and frantically call your financial manager complaining that he said the tech stocks were sure-fire winners. As you lose your shirt, the money manager will remind you that you are a long-term investor that means he hopes you are a sucker that stays in stocks while his old butt can exit and keep his dough for retirement. Pump and dump.

Plan accordingly. Looking at the long-term S&P 500 chart above, it is financial malpractice to tell clients to keep investing in stocks going forward. The chart above can serve as a reference as the new August candlestick plays out for the first few days of the month. You are watching an epic top take place in real-time. Are you ready? Good ole Ozzie kicked the bucket. In his dying breaths, the Prince of Darkness was singing, "Mama, I'm Coming Home," and he did. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Saturday, 8/2/25: The SPX prints two outside reversal days and an outside reversal week not a good sign for going forward. The SPX loses -1.5% yesterday and is down -2.4% this week to 6238. The SPX placed the record top at 6427.02 on Thursday and then falls on its sword collapsing, or mini-crashing, almost 2-hundo points in less than 2 days, into a Black Friday, or let's call it a mini-Black Friday. Let the festivities begin.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Charts Comparing 1999 Dot-Com Bubble Top to the 2025 AI Bubble Top

Oppenheimer's permabull chief strategist, John Dufus, er Stoltzfus, receives the honorary Irving Fisher award. Stoltzfus changes his SPX target for the third time this year now claiming that SPX will hit 7100 in the weeks and months ahead. The call is the same as Irving Fisher proclaiming that stocks are sitting on a permanently high plateau with no fear of dropping--right before the 1929 stock market crash. It is hilarious stuff.

Strategist Mike Wilson, a born-again permabull, laughs at the SPX 7100 target decreeing that 7200 will occur before the middle of next year (that would be an 80-point gain in the S&P 500 every month forward for the next 10 consecutive months). The bullishness remains off the charts during this two-month topping process. We can give both men the honorary Irving Fisher award.

Don't these dolts look at charts? Obviously, not. The SPX monthly chart remains in full negative divergence across all chart indicators forecasting a historic top currently that will begin a multi-month and likely multi-year move lower for US stocks. Friday is most important because a new candlestick will begin for the monthly chart and provide more insight into this historic AI Bubble top.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high today, 7/29/25, at 6409.26, but the all-time closing high remains at 6389.77 on 7/28/25. Today was an outside reversal day on the daily chart a bad omen going forward.

The AI Bubble now is a repeat of the Dot-Com Bubble in 1999/2000. If you dare hint that you are bearish, you will be shouted down, ridiculed, and drawn and quartered for such blasphemy! It is the same exact vibe in 1999 and 2008/2009. It is fun to watch. Keystone thinks of Larry Wachtel during the dot-com top warning folks on television to get out because the stock market is making a major top. He was laughed at and ridiculed although no one could dislike Larry; he was a great dude. And he was the only one that was right.

The SPX daily, weekly and monthly charts remain in full neggie d calling-out a historic stock market top. The rampant complacency and bullish euphoria has not been addressed for two months running due to King Donnie pumping stocks with daily happy tariff talk and Pope Powell ready to cut rates, but not tomorrow.

The MACD is trying to squeeze-out some more upside on a weekly basis but even if it moves higher, it would only extend the top another week or two. Even if an indicator on the monthly chart would manage to print a higher high, it would only result in a jog move of a month or two to again print the epic top we are now experiencing. Get out of your longs and let that capital sit in your brokerage account for the next few months or longer, at least until 2026. Go to the beach. If you stay engaged on the long side, your LT buy and hold strategy is going to get shoved up your arse.

The only thing that can improve the picture is Chairman Powell tomorrow, or the yearnings from four big tech companies this week, or the Jobs Report on Friday, but like the previous paragraph states, you are only talking incremental moves to extend the top before she collapses.

It will be interesting to see if Powell can pull a rabbit out of his hat tomorrow. A rate cut is not expected; it sure would be a shock if he went for it. The key will be his presser and how dovish he is for a September cut. The focus on the Jobs Report will be the unemployment rate.

The table is set. Stoltzfus and Wilson are the standard bearers of the Irving Fisher legacy proclaiming that stocks are at a permanently high plateau and can only go higher above SPX 7K and far higher. Both men have already ordered SPX 7K hats that are sitting in two cardboard boxes in the lobby. Stoltzfus will likely lower his SPX target in a couple months.

Black Wednesday? If stocks collapse, they typically never bottom on a Wednesday so any weakness in equities tomorrow would forecast further weakness ahead. Keybot the Quant remains long the stock market (Keybot the Quant algorithm) but the technicals say get out if you are holding longs (The Keystone Speculator's charts). Everyone is waiting for tomorrow. Today. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/30/25, at 6:06 PM EST: After the smoke clears from the Chairman Powell press conference and rate decision to remain on hold with rates, as expected, the 10-year yield now sits at 4.37%. The SPX pulls back a hair to 6362. The 20-day MA support is at 6299 so that would be the first test on the downside.

UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow 7/30/25

The big FOMC rate decision and Chairman Powell presser are on tap tomorrow and should move markets. No cut is expected so King Donnie, with the impatient adolescent mind, will be quick to badger Powell with baby tweets. The 10-year yield has been working towards this decision for almost 2 years.

The blue lines show two sideways symmetrical triangles so yield needs to decide what direction to move. It is time to sh*t, or get off the pot, as dear ole Ma would say. Keystone likes to use the second touch in from the end as the estimate for the future move and that is about 1.1% difference for the dark blue and about 0.7% for the light blue pattern. Note how yield sits at 4.33% above the 50-wk MA floor of support at 4.30% but below the 20-wk MA ceiling of resistance at 4.36%.

The moving averages are lining out sideways adding further credibility to the sideways symmetrical triangles. The bands are moving in tight (purple arrows), the tightest they have been for the last 3 years and more, forecasting a big move out of the triangles. The question is which way?

If yield moves up through 4.36%, moving higher, it will test the upper band at 4.59%, and if that is pierced to the upside, the 5.06% to 5.46% range will be the target going forward on the weekly basis.

If yield drops through 4.30%, moving lower, it will test the lower band at 4.13%, and if that fails, yield will likely drop to the 3.2% to 3.6% range going forward.

King Donnie is stomping up and down throwing a tantrum. He wants a rate cut and he wants it now. Daddy, give me a rate cut like you gave me a half billion and set up my real estate business. Donnie, You're So Impatient. Blacky is playing his handmade Martin made in Pennsylvania. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/30/25, at 5:56 PM EST: After the smoke clears from the Chairman Powell press conference and rate decision to remain on hold with rates, as expected, the 10-year yield now sits at 4.37%. The door creaks slightly open lighting the path to 4.59%, like the private detective at the top of the stairs in Psycho. 

Note Added Saturday, 8/2/25: Screech! Screech! Screech! Arrggh! Yield is stabbed in the face by Norman Bates, falling backwards down the stairs, and then meeting its fate. The 10-year yield drops to 4.22%. The stock market collapses so some of that money goes into buying Treasuries so note and bond prices go up and yields down.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Remains at Lows Signaling Rampant Complacency and a Significant Stock Market Top

The stock market is taking its good ole time to top-out due to the King Donnie daily happy talk and the ongoing expectations and guarantees for rate cuts. Traders and investors have been touting rate cuts all year long. Do you think they are priced-in to the stock market? (In America's corrupt crony capitalism system, the Federal Reserve always steps-in to protect the wealthy class by cutting rates that sends stocks to the moon (the rich own the stock market). Fed members are rewarded for their dovishness with lucrative token speaking engagements hosted by the Wall Street investment banks once they leave office. It is called crony capitalism filth.)

Anyhoo, get back! She's ready to blow! Take cover! Hit the deck! The 2/19/25 stock market top was straight forward compared to the last 2-month's mess. When the CPC put/call ratio drops significantly and prints low numbers, that signals rampant complacency in the stock market and a top at hand. The stock market would typically top-out in a few days after the low CPC but over the last couple decades that signal has morphed into a few days to one month time frame for the top to occur. The current top is in a league all its own now topping out for two solid months. Traders believe in the rate cuts and are holding on the long side believing Everything's Gonna Work Out Right as Joe Grushecky and the Houserockers play in Da Burgh.

The tariffs have not bit yet although the inflation data shows buoyancy occurring now so the impact will be felt going forward. American consumers will be paying for the tariffs. King Donnie knows this; he is not that stupid. This is why he badgers Fed Chairman Powell every 10 minutes to cut rates. Trumpski knows that consumers are going to start screaming as prices remain high and moving higher and he wants rate cuts to soothe the pain that he is causing.

The chart above tells you what is in store. Don't Buy the Liverwurst. The SPX has gaps to fill on the downside all the way to the April lows. The SPX daily chart remains in universal negative divergence and is completely topped-out. The only thing that can change it is happy news that is unknown currently. The daily Donnie hype and expectation for rate cuts keeps the stock market in suspended animation at the record highs. The SPX weekly chart is critical to firmly calling the top. It is in neggie d across all indicators over the last few months but shows the short-term thrust. A new candlestick will begin today and the expectation is that stocks will top-out on the weekly basis anytime over the next couple weeks.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6315.61 on 7/18/25 and the all-time closing high is at 6297.36 on 7/17/25.

This is interesting stuff. You are born during a time where you are watching the implosion of America's crony capitalism system. The coming months and couple years or so are going to knock your socks off. If you are a young person with cash burning a hole in your pocket, stay away from the stock market. Ditch your longs and just let that dough sit in your brokerage account for the next few months.

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, remains long the stock market since 6/2/25 going on 7 weeks. If you remain long the stock market, make sure your shoelaces are tied because you are picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer that cannot stop. Everybody Laughs as David Byrne sings his new song but soon all will be crying. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.