CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart Remains at Lows Signaling Rampant Complacency and a Significant Stock Market Top

The stock market is taking its good ole time to top-out due to the King Donnie daily happy talk and the ongoing expectations and guarantees for rate cuts. Traders and investors have been touting rate cuts all year long. Do you think they are priced-in to the stock market? (In America's corrupt crony capitalism system, the Federal Reserve always steps-in to protect the wealthy class by cutting rates that sends stocks to the moon (the rich own the stock market). Fed members are rewarded for their dovishness with lucrative token speaking engagements hosted by the Wall Street investment banks once they leave office. It is called crony capitalism filth.)

Anyhoo, get back! She's ready to blow! Take cover! Hit the deck! The 2/19/25 stock market top was straight forward compared to the last 2-month's mess. When the CPC put/call ratio drops significantly and prints low numbers, that signals rampant complacency in the stock market and a top at hand. The stock market would typically top-out in a few days after the low CPC but over the last couple decades that signal has morphed into a few days to one month time frame for the top to occur. The current top is in a league all its own now topping out for two solid months. Traders believe in the rate cuts and are holding on the long side believing Everything's Gonna Work Out Right as Joe Grushecky and the Houserockers play in Da Burgh.

The tariffs have not bit yet although the inflation data shows buoyancy occurring now so the impact will be felt going forward. American consumers will be paying for the tariffs. King Donnie knows this; he is not that stupid. This is why he badgers Fed Chairman Powell every 10 minutes to cut rates. Trumpski knows that consumers are going to start screaming as prices remain high and moving higher and he wants rate cuts to soothe the pain that he is causing.

The chart above tells you what is in store. Don't Buy the Liverwurst. The SPX has gaps to fill on the downside all the way to the April lows. The SPX daily chart remains in universal negative divergence and is completely topped-out. The only thing that can change it is happy news that is unknown currently. The daily Donnie hype and expectation for rate cuts keeps the stock market in suspended animation at the record highs. The SPX weekly chart is critical to firmly calling the top. It is in neggie d across all indicators over the last few months but shows the short-term thrust. A new candlestick will begin today and the expectation is that stocks will top-out on the weekly basis anytime over the next couple weeks.

The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 6315.61 on 7/18/25 and the all-time closing high is at 6297.36 on 7/17/25.

This is interesting stuff. You are born during a time where you are watching the implosion of America's crony capitalism system. The coming months and couple years or so are going to knock your socks off. If you are a young person with cash burning a hole in your pocket, stay away from the stock market. Ditch your longs and just let that dough sit in your brokerage account for the next few months.

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's proprietary trading robot, remains long the stock market since 6/2/25 going on 7 weeks. If you remain long the stock market, make sure your shoelaces are tied because you are picking up nickels in front of a bulldozer that cannot stop. Everybody Laughs as David Byrne sings his new song but soon all will be crying. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.