UST10Y 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle; FOMC Rate Decision Tomorrow 7/30/25

The big FOMC rate decision and Chairman Powell presser are on tap tomorrow and should move markets. No cut is expected so King Donnie, with the impatient adolescent mind, will be quick to badger Powell with baby tweets. The 10-year yield has been working towards this decision for almost 2 years.

The blue lines show two sideways symmetrical triangles so yield needs to decide what direction to move. It is time to sh*t, or get off the pot, as dear ole Ma would say. Keystone likes to use the second touch in from the end as the estimate for the future move and that is about 1.1% difference for the dark blue and about 0.7% for the light blue pattern. Note how yield sits at 4.33% above the 50-wk MA floor of support at 4.30% but below the 20-wk MA ceiling of resistance at 4.36%.

The moving averages are lining out sideways adding further credibility to the sideways symmetrical triangles. The bands are moving in tight (purple arrows), the tightest they have been for the last 3 years and more, forecasting a big move out of the triangles. The question is which way?

If yield moves up through 4.36%, moving higher, it will test the upper band at 4.59%, and if that is pierced to the upside, the 5.06% to 5.46% range will be the target going forward on the weekly basis.

If yield drops through 4.30%, moving lower, it will test the lower band at 4.13%, and if that fails, yield will likely drop to the 3.2% to 3.6% range going forward.

King Donnie is stomping up and down throwing a tantrum. He wants a rate cut and he wants it now. Daddy, give me a rate cut like you gave me a half billion and set up my real estate business. Donnie, You're So Impatient. Blacky is playing his handmade Martin made in Pennsylvania. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 7/30/25, at 5:56 PM EST: After the smoke clears from the Chairman Powell press conference and rate decision to remain on hold with rates, as expected, the 10-year yield now sits at 4.37%. The door creaks slightly open lighting the path to 4.59%, like the private detective at the top of the stairs in Psycho. 

Note Added Saturday, 8/2/25: Screech! Screech! Screech! Arrggh! Yield is stabbed in the face by Norman Bates, falling backwards down the stairs, and then meeting its fate. The 10-year yield drops to 4.22%. The stock market collapses so some of that money goes into buying Treasuries so note and bond prices go up and yields down.