SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Tight Bands Project Big Move At Hand

That is a tight band. Counting Crows playing Daylight Fading. No, not that kind of tight band. Tight standard deviation bands (purple arrows). The bands have not been this tight since the 2/19/25 top that resulted in the big drawdown for equities. Tight bands tell you that the move coming is going to be big but they do not tell direction. Keystone always describes it as squeezing a tube of toothpaste; you know it will violently shoot-out of the tube but you have no idea where it will fly. The bands are in tight squeezing price.

You can see that the February top, that Keystone explained at the time, was in full negative divergence so the expectation was down and the tight bands sent the SPX to Hades. It is the same set-up now but there is lots of drama led by King Donnie the three-ring circus showman. The Fed is going political due to the daily Whitehouse intervention. The orange head could not find anyone dumb enough to move their family and life to smelly Washington, DC, for a five-month job replacing Kugler so he gives the position to sycophant Miran that is already living in the swamp and the commute to the Eccles Building is not a long drive. Donnie is sticking his nose in Brazil, India, many countries, telling them how to operate or conduct business.

Trumpski spits on capitalism dictating that American CEO's kneel before his throne daily to kiss the ring and conduct business as the orange head demands. The latest is Donnie decreeing that the Intel CEO resign. And many of you think this is cool? And most of you think capitalism actually exists? That's funny. Capitalism only exists in theoretical business textbooks because of human greed. It's that simple. America is a faux free market crony capitalism financial system, corrupt to the core, in its last throes. Get with the program.

There was no reason for price to come back up in the daily time frame since the neggie d was universal when the top was placed a week ago. Nevertheless, the SPX rises for five days and fills the gap above that is a good thing for bears as previously mentioned.

Note that the bounce in price was not due to the set-up of positive divergence. The few-day rally is purely due to news and happy Donnie talk and rate-cut expectations. You would think rate cuts have long since been priced into the stock market but there is buoyancy in equities when Chairman Powell coughs and it sounds like he said rate cut.

Further, the stochastics were weak and bleak after the SPX bottom wanting price to make lower lows not move higher. Look at the MACD line. Comically, it is still going lower despite the multi-day comeback move. The expectation would be for failure and a squeeze lower in equities. Watch to see if the RSI, stochastics and money flow go sub 50% into bear territory. Can the orange head muster up more happy talk or is it all sounding like a bunch of bull sh*t?

Well, what do you think? Black Friday? Black Monday? Friday, I'm In Love. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.