US 30-Year Treasury Yield Monthly and Weekly Charts; Ascending Triangle; 30-Year Yield Tags 5.20% Not Seen Since 2007

The US 30-year Treasury yield tags 5.20% yesterday, 5/19/26, overtaking the 5.18% high from late 2023, and testing the high yields from 2007 almost 20 years ago.

The weekly chart shows a long-term ascending triangle in play a bullish pattern (in this case talking yields, it is bullish yields that means bonds are sold off and not wanted driving yields higher; for notes and bonds it would be bullish yields and bearish the note and bond prices). Traders are wiping their buttocks with the 30-year yield as it breaks up and out of the ascending triangle.

Since this 5.0%-ish area, call it 4.8% to 5.2% is so important due to the chart activity, expect some choppiness and back-kissing in this area going forward. Drilling down to get a good pattern match is the blue ascending triangle. Its baseline is 4.95% and the bottom of the vertical side is 4.30%. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, and therefore and ergo, that is why Keystone was not invited to the Spring Jubilee. The difference gives 65 basis points for the blue vertical side so adding that to the baseline breakout level is 4.95% plus 0.65% = 5.60% as the upside target for the 30-year yield on a weekly basis.

Looking at the vertical side of the orange triangle is 4.00% to 5.05% so that is 1.05% difference and a 6.10% upside target on a monthly basis (5.05%+1.05%). King Donnie Trumpski wants lower rates not higher rates.

The chart indicators are a mixed bag not surprising since the yield has been in a sideways choppy funk for the last couple years. There is near-term upside momentum for yields for the next couple weeks but the RSI and stochastics are at or near overbot levels thinking about a pullback on the weekly basis so yield can catch its breath after the orgy spike. There is negative divergence over the long-term so a move through the green channel at 4.60%-5.20% or 5.30% may continue for a very long time ahead.

Yield would be expected to come down and back kiss the baselines of the triangles at 4.95%-5.05% to show respect before resuming the upside. However, with the orange head in charge anything goes. Donnie Chump is Captain Chaos so expect anything ahead. Interestingly, the 10-year yield is displaying a sideways triangle breakout and the shorter duration 2-year and 5-year charts are seeing rising yields from a falling wedge breakout. All three are bullish, or in the yield case, upside patterns.

Inflation fears, Donnie's Iran War, and the worries in the fixed income arena sends yields higher. Goods inflation has skyrocketed over the last year. Oil prices are creating inflation. The Federal Reserve remains neutral even with an easing bias so they are out of touch. The bond vigilantes are at work sending rates higher so Chairman Warsh, taking over from Powell, will not be able to lower rates like Donnie Chump demands. There is a sign-in ceremony planned for Warsh at the Whitehouse on Friday, that should be performed at the Eccles Building, but Trumpski is letting Warsh know loud and clear that you are my little b*tch, buddy, and in my house kissing my butt, so you need to lower rates.

It will be interesting to see if Warsh has truly sold his soul over the last decade. One of the few people that Keystone and others could cling on to for hope for the US financial system back in 2007-2009 was Warsh. But his conservative stature and wanting to keep US debt in check, and limit bank bailouts, are apparently thrown out the window as he has strapped on dovish wings, started drinking the Kool-Aid, and wants easy money lower rates forever, worshipping the MMT model. People change, or do they?

One way you can get the change you want is to be a wolf in sheep's clothing. That gets you in the door to where you can implement the plans you feel are best for the country to heck with the people that got you there. Will Warsh stand up to Trump and not only not lower rates but hike rates as the year plays out? Markets must size-up Warsh and the path ahead for the Federal Reserve over the next 2 or 3 months.

The market has lost confidence in the Fed's handling of inflation as Warsh rides in on his pale green horse (the four horseman of the global financial apocalypse are the BOJ, ECB, PBOC and Fed). Horslips performs the Man Who Built America a huge one-hit wonder. Keystone built America and parts of the world and now watches it slowly destroyed by drones. It is our destiny. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 5/21/26 at 6:41 AM EST:  Donnie panicked after perusing the above charts and ran to a microphone to proclaim that the Iran War is in its final stage. Bingo. Notes and bonds are bot sending yields lower. Stocks catapult higher. Oil drops. Small caps rally. The 30-year bond yield is now at 5.12%.