The SPX daily chart continues to play out with negative divergence as previously explained. She was all set to roll over starting the week of 5/11/26 but King Donnie Chumpski pumped equities with happy Iran War talk. That took the SPX up to the all-time high at 7517.12 and all-time closing high at 7473.47 on Thursday, 5/14/26.
Some of the neggie d remained, but the happy talk bolstered the MACD line to a slightly higher high (more gas was put in the tank) and wanted price to come back up once more. Price drops for three days, then recovers for 3 days to Friday's shooting star candlestick. No surprise there because Donnie poured some extra fuel into the MACD. Now, with price at matching highs, but new all-time highs were not attained on Friday, the chart indicators can be assessed again and the red lines show that all are in neggie d so the top is in again.
Humorously, the only thing that can save it from its technical fate is more happy talk like mid-month and right on cue, King Donnie, donning his paper Burger King hat that he received in a happy meal, proclaims that an agreement is reached with the Iran War. US stocks reopen for trading on Tuesday due to the holiday and the happy talk may once again delay the top by a few days. Or, it may be a sell the news event.
Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's on the way up and 2's to 8's on the way down. Price has made it up and over 7.5K a couple times. Keystone received a "SPX 7.5K" hat but on the walk home a bird sh*t on it so it was thrown in the garbage. Nonetheless, a move up and over 7480 opens the door to the 7520 level. A move above 7478 opens the door to 7482. If traders buy into the Iran War happy talk, the SPX may pop to 7520-7540, even the top band again at 7565 but that should be short-lived and only serve to delay the top on the daily basis by a day or few again.
After Trumpski said there was a deal with the Iran War, it was then labeled as a framework for a deal. Oh my, the tangled web the orange head weaves. Maybe it is a framework of a potential deal that may result in the opening of the Strait of Hormuz after negotiations and a secondary framework that can lay the groundwork for a possible overall deal that may...... what a bunch of dribble. Donnie screwed the pooch in Iran teaching the radical Islamist terrorist nutcases that they can control the Strait of Hormuz anytime they like. Donnie's frameworks, deals, agreements, negotiations, bloviations, belching, and BS sounds like Fauci during the COVID-19 pandemic thinking, considering, the idea of pondering the thought of ..... as parodied by Tyler Fischer.
If SPX price runs higher on happy Iran War talk, simply watch the red lines for the indicators to see if any of them overtake the prior highs to negate the neggie d. If not, the neggie d remains and a spankdown of stocks will begin on the daily basis. If so, the top will only be delayed by a few days until neggie d is shown across all indicators again.
The Friday candlestick is a shooting star. Johnny was a schoolboy, when he heard his first Beatles song, don't you know that you are a shooting star? Don't, don't you know? The shooting star typically indicates that a reversal is on tap. Shooting Star by Bad Company.
The SPX is showing a double top or M top pattern. The orange circles show some of the gaps that will need filled on the way down. That gap at 6600-6740 is big enough to drive a bus through it. That gap higher in early April places the S&P 500 on an island above 6740. When price comes back down to Earth going forward, price may fill that gap, or, price may come down to 6740, and then gap back down through that gap to 6600 creating an island reversal pattern but this is for another day.
The ADX shows that the last strong trend was on the downside and it ended in early April. Despite the all-time record highs, the ADX says the upside is NOT a strong trend higher. In fact the ADX is even showing negative divergence as price prints the matching highs. The Aroon green line shows that nearly all the bulls remain firmly bullish on stocks and expect more new highs and the red line shows that nearly all the bears also think the stock market will go up forever. The rampant complacency, fearlessness and bullish euphoria is also verified by the low put/calls.
The last three up days show volume trailing off. Not only that, the volumes are below the prior three selling volume days, and volume is not exceeding the volume on the all-time record day. Some traders say 'volume is validity' and if this is true, a lot more bulls better show up with fistfuls of money on Tuesday.
The daily chart is toast, resetting after the Donnie Iran War hype stick-saved the downside, but it only served to delay the top. If more Donnie hype occurs over the next couple days, that could delay the top by a few days again, otherwise, it would be a sell the news event and allow the neggie d to kick in the downside with force.
Celebrate Memorial Day. Taps. There are jackasses in America that espouse the 'white privilege' garbage. Look at all those white tombstones that go on forever in all directions at Arlington. There's your white privilege, you b*stards. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
No comments:
Post a Comment
Note: Only a member of this blog may post a comment.