SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Rising Wedge; Overbot; Negative Divergence Signals Long-Term Stock Market Top but Watch the MACD as May Ends

The SPX monthly chart was posted on May Day and with April in the can, negative divergence was/is displayed across all chart indicators (red lines) signaling a major top. You can scroll back to read that post. Price continues higher but all the chart indicators are sloping lower showing that they are out of gas and can no longer push price higher.

This is a monthly chart so the stock market top is at a long-term significant top. It will begin a multi-month down move that can easily stretch into multi-year. That can be determined in the future by how the charts progress.

So the bears have their chests puffed out because this chart tells you that we are at the end game and this down move in equities coming will be a sick, long-term major pullback that could extend through the end of the year.

Now all that said, there is always a snake coming out of the woodpile. Focus on the MACD line. It remains neggie d, barely, with the bulls trying with all their might to create a higher high and extend the rally. Even if the MACD finished May higher, it would only extend the top by a month of two for a jog move (down in June, up in July for the top) to set the MACD with negative divergence.

However, the chart was already in neggie d 2 weeks ago after April and the MACD is at maximum nosebleed levels. One time several decades ago, Keystone went to a professional baseball game and needed hiking shoes to get up to the seats. It was like mountain climbing finally reaching the perch that made the players on the field look like ants. In addition, Keystone got vertigo at such a great height, and had shortness of breath from the rarified air. On top of all that drama, his nose started bleeding. Billie's nose is bleeding. Bad Guy.

There are 9 trading days remaining in May and the candlestick above will be cast in concrete and then the June candlestick will begin. The MACD line is in progress and its final position will not be known for 9 trading days. It will tell you if the long-term top is now and the multi-month down move begins, or, as said above, price may need to jog to allow time for the MACD to reset with neggie d if it finishes the month a hair higher.

The nosebleed level is key. The MACD is so high it may no longer matter that it is neggie d. It has absolutely nowhere to go but down. So the call remains for a multi-month top in stocks right now but maintain a hairy eyeball on the blue circle.

The red rising wedge squeezes in price at the top. It is a bearish pattern. There was a failure in early 2025 and also this year during the March swoon, but both recovered back up into the rising wedge. Price violated the upper band so the middle band at 6395 is on the table going forward as well as the lower band at 5264.

The chart is a POS and this is a long-term look at the stock market going forward. All the corrupt Wall Street analysts raise SPX targets to near and well over 8K. Hey idiots, look at the chart above. Do not purposely screw your clients telling them to buy stocks when they are going to sink like stones in the months forward. The money managers make their dough on fees and moving shares to and fro and do not care that you will lose your shirt. You should know better than to trust a den of thieves.

If you are new to stock trading, get out before you lose your shirt. For example, it is easy to see the SPX potentially down to the 3000, 4000 or 5000 levels in a few months or year or two. So if you are a little techie, proudly wearing your fleece vest with company logo embroidered, and overpaid, looking for a place to put your dough since you are single and not dating any ladies, and want to place it all in the stock market, you will likely only have about one-half of your capital a year or so from now. That scenario will make you the bag holdin' sucka. Every significant top needs suckers. I'm Just a Sucker for Your Love. As Dave Chappelle says, "I'm Rick James, b*tch." This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.