SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Negative Divergence; Long-Term Top Is Placed As Stocks Print All-Time Highs

Raise your hand if you are a jackass that is long the stock market and adding to long positions. Look at that. Every trader on Wall Street raises their hand. The ghost of Irving Fisher floats above the traders proclaiming that the stock market is at a permanently high plateau above SPX 7.2K and will never go below that level ever again.

The month of May begins today and people should be yelling, "May Day! Mayday!" The United States stock market is cooked on the long-term monthly basis. That means stocks will begin dropping and that downward path will continue for many months if not a year or two, or maybe more. You must realize that these all-time highs may not be seen again for many months and perhaps many years.

If you are a young naive person, get yourself out of the stock market before you get hurt. Otherwise, Keystone is going to take your money and send you home to tell your wife that you lost the dough that was for her anniversary present.

The bears should be happy that May starts with a matching and higher price high. That allows the chart indicators to be assessed for negative divergence to see if a top exists, or how far away it may be. The red lines show that we are sitting on the top right now due to neggie d and the picnic bench is about to break and land everyone on the ground, with the ants.

A trip back to the 20-mth MA at 6386 would be in order for starters. The 10-mth MA at 6847 is an early warning signal of pending doom. At 7.2K plus you may not be that concerned, but you will be. The key level is the 12-mth MA at 6751 that dictates a cyclical bear market. Stocks dipped their toes into this realm on the last dip but recovered with that record setting rally in April. If 6751 is lost, all hope is lost in the stock market.

The only hope bulls have would be to push the MACD line up so it is a tiny bit higher than the prior high but even that will only buy another month or two before the top is placed. Can't you understand? There is no hope going forward for the stock market on a long-term monthly basis. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The blue circles show distribution taking place with the smart money selling their shares to the bagholding suckers, the dumb money, over the last couple years. Warren Buffett at Berkshire Hathaway has been trimming stocks for the last couple years. Doesn't everyone worship at his altar?

Are you ready for fun? We are at an historic top as everyone whistles past the graveyard going long with 2x and crazy 3x ETF's. If you are long the stock market, you should be girding your loins. We need some wild music to match the wild times ahead. Born to Be Wild. All of you young folks missed out on the fun, adventure, and trouble, in the 60's and 70's. The road is freedom and some of you idiots place shackles on yourselves with an electric vehicle POS. You be dumb. Get a motor underneath you and you will never be the same. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 5/3/26: Uncle Warren says the greed is out of control now. Buffett does not like the prices of stocks and recommends not buying. Warren Buffett proclaims that he has never seen people in more of a gambling mood than now and "prices for an awful lot of things (will) look very silly." Berkshire Hathaway's cash hoard is the highest ever.

Note Added Monday Morning, 5/4/26, at 6:06 AM EST: King Donnie Trumpski provides happy talk right on schedule at about 4 PM EST last night a couple hours ahead of the futures markets opening at 6 PM. Many analysts on Wall Street are finally seeing the pattern. Of course, Donnie is trying to manipulate the futures markets prices as they begin trading for the week. Trump wants lower oil prices and higher stock prices. Out of the gate last evening, oil dropped but overnight reverses the losses and moves higher again. People are on to Donnie's bloviations and bellicose ramblings. Now commie China is calling out Donnie telling their companies to ignore tariffs. Donnie's bark does not have as much bite these days. Iran fires back messages at him the minute he tweets. For Donnie's schtick to work, he needs to be in control, or at least perceived to be in control, of the situation, but the Iran War debacle devolves into a bigger mess each day.