SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart

Keystone called the long-term top in the US stock market at the end of February after describing and explaining that 5-month rolling top mess that refused to roll over. Scroll back to study those charts. Time will tell how things play out. The dip-buyers remain active tripping over each other today fearful that they are missing out on the next big rally. Paging Irving Fisher. Paging Irving Fisher. Report to the front trading desk.

The red lines show the top call. Price prints matching and higher highs so the chart indicators can be assessed for potential negative divergence. It took a while for the uncharacteristic top to lock-in, but ALL the indicators finally went neggie d in February as more matching highs were printed. That means a multi-month selloff should begin and March kicks off the bear fun. It will be interesting to watch. The Keystone Speculator is the Father of Divergence Trading.

The old-timer's watch the 10-month MA at 6684 since it is an early warning alarm for the US stock market. Equities are in big trouble if the 10-mth MA fails and it did today (yellow circle).

However, King Donnie Trumpski rides in on a pale green horse to save the day. He promises that the Iran War is complete and will be over soon. Donnie proclaims that he may take the Strait of Hormuz and he has picked a successor to run Iran. Oil prices retreated off the highs and stocks took off to the moon intraday on the happy talk. Don't you love crony capitalism filth? In addition, Trumpski kisses Putin's flabby butt and relaxes oil sanctions so comrade Vlad can make more money and kill more Ukrainian women, children and elderly. What a world.

So the 10-mth MA warning alarm at 6684 is sounding forcing Donnie into action. The LOD today is 6636.04 so write that on a Post-It note and stick it on your forehead. It is an important number going forward. The 12-mth MA at 6526 (red circle) is a bear market. At the low today, only a few hours ago, we were only 110 SPX points from a bear market. Price is now about 270 points from the bear market. There is lots of time for price to move lower in a multi-month downturn that may last the bulk of the year.

The blue circles for the volume candles show the pump and dump. Equities are pumped on television and the internet in November taking advantage of Thanksgiving joy. The smart money comes in December to clean the table taking the sucka's money and setting them up to hold the bag. Same-o repeat in January and February. Note how the selling volume candle matches or is higher than the buying candlestick

The smart money pumps stocks on tv and 10 minutes later they are selling the same stocks (in the chart above, pump stocks one month to get Joe Sixpack bulled-up, and then sell the next month distributing the frothy shares to Joe the sucker that anxiously buys at the top). Fortunately, there are always bag-holdin' sucka's available. Are you left holding the bag? Are you a sucka? Go get some more money off Mommy and Daddy, Sonny, and come on back, Keystone thinks you can be a winner next time. Do you think so, Mister? Sure, Sonny, now where's your dough? Let's set you up with some NVDA, META and ORCL (and more shares from the Wall Street investment banks are unloaded to Joe Retail, Barry Bagholder, and Carmelita Sucka). Carmelita, hold me tighter, I think I'm sinking down, and I'm all strung out on heroin, on the outskirts of town.

The roller coaster ride continues. Bulls and bears both claim that the market is Letting Me Down. Pretty Margo. Mama's workin' at the liquor store. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.