The bullish percent index for the SPX is at 35 indicating a washout at hand. The six percentage-point reversals on the BPSPX daily chart are important as well as the 70% and 35% levels. On the way up, a move above 70 is an extra bullish signal but at the same time stocks are getting at lofty heights.
On the way down, 35 is a key level that indicates a washout at hand. A majority of traders and investors have finally turned negative after all the dips were bot for many weeks. Now it is sell the rips instead of buy the dips. Everyone expects stocks to collapse, so typically, equities will defy the consensus and stage a relief rally and the pops and rallies in bear markets can be very strong to the upside.
The stock market is teetering on the edge of a cyclical bear market with some metrics saying yes and some saying no so give it a few more days or week or two. The BPSPX bottoms coincide with the SPX bottoms since panic and fear is rampant and some investors proclaim they want out and will never play the stock market again. Thank you very much, I'll take those shares.
The Iran War is a wildcard since stocks move on the noise. King Donnie Chump proclaims that the war is wrapped up in Iran and he can close things out--as he sends Marines over to the war theater. Huh? What? He has no plan, or changes his mind sometimes the same day, and then he moans that other countries are not helping. He wanted help in the Strait of Hormuz since he is in over his orange head, then berates everyone, now says he needs no help and others can take care of the doggy dirt mess he created. That's Our Donnie. Just like Daddy took care of everything for little silver spoon Donnie.
Speaking from the perspective of a chemical engineer that has designed, built, and operated these LNG liquefier and terminal plants, as well as many other important processing facilities worldwide, it is heartbreaking to see the destruction. It will take a few years to rebuild. But barring any horrible news about the Iran War, and especially if there is good news, stocks should create a bottom any day and a recovery rally will begin. If not Monday, then it is likely to begin sometime next week.
Can stocks still retreat? Of course they can but the BPSPX tells you that the selling is way overdone for now and a relief rally is needed to digest the losses. If you bring up the BPSPX daily chart, you see the tumble lower. That chart has to reverse back up by six percentage-points to provide a bullish confirmation signal for the recovery rally.
Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why Aunt Agatha told Keystone to be quiet at the St Patty's day banquet, from 35, a move up by the BPSPX to 41 would be a confirmation signal for the bull rally in progress. Monday is key since there will be developments on the weekend. Also, the orange one will provide comments between 4 PM EST and 6 PM EST on Sunday, ahead of the futures markets, to try and manipulate prices and sentiment. He must think we all are Dumb. Or maybe just happy? I'm not like them. Kurt was dead 5 months after the Unplugged concert. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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