SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart with 12 MA Cross and NYA NYSE Composite Weekly Chart with 40 MA Cross Dictate if Stocks Fall into a Cyclical Bear Market

Okay, it was all fun and games, until now. It is time to separate the men from the boys. The two most important metrics of the United States stock market (the S&P 500 index; SPX), are the SPX 12-month MA and NYA 40-week MA crosses. If you were on a desert island, you would know if the stock market was in a cyclical bull or cyclical bear market pattern by these two parameters.

The SPX failed at the 12-mth MA at 6502 on Friday and the NYA lost the 40-wk MA at 21661 both ushering in a cyclical bear market and the big flush lower in stocks. How's all those SPX 8K and higher calls by the Wall Street analysts going? It is customary to give out hats at certain milestone levels for the SPX or Dow like "SPX 7K" and "Dow 50K" but this is always on the way up. Why? It should work in reverse so in the future we should receive "SPX 6K" and SPX 5K" and even "SPX 4K" hats if we venture back to these lows. Right?

As the Friday session played out, the bulls fought like Hell to regain the 6502 level to keep the growling and slashing bears at bay. This makes the call easy going forward.

If the NYA regains 21661 out of the gate tomorrow and moving higher, the selloff is over and a recovery rally is starting with rainbows and puppies going forward, despite the Iran War where King Donnie Chump changes his plan and strategy, is there one?, every 10 minutes. Trumpski said thing are wrapping up but now he is sending Marines and threatening to blow-up Iran's power plants. Huh? What? Confusion and chaos continues just like when little King Donnie was handling the COVID-19 pandemic. People have short memories.

Now Putin, that Chump idolizes, says he sides with Iran. The World War III dominoes fall into place one at a time. We will find out this week if the orange head has created a mess in the Middle East. Donnie is realizing that he may not be the one in control of ending the war he started. Trumpski did not form a coalition of nations or explain to Americans what he was doing, why he thinks Iran is a big threat, or the exact plan and mission of the war. It remains a mish-mash pile of slop with Donnie reacting to each crisis that surfaces as a result of his own actions.

Keep an ear open after 4 PM EST this afternoon because King Donnie will likely talk to try and manipulate the markets. Futures open at 6 PM EST so you can see what may be in store for markets to begin the week and how Asia will trade.

If the SPX falls back below 6502, the cyclical bear market begins and carnage and a downward bias in stocks will continue for many weeks and months forward. Choose your poison. Poison Ivy playing lead guitar. Mad Daddy. The Goo Goo Muck song in the modern-day Wednesday Addams stuff is a resurrected Cramps tune. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 3/27/26: The battle for cyclical market control continues. The SPX 12-mth MA is 6501 and the NYA 40-wk MA is 21701. The SPX failed below 6501 yesterday creating stock market negativity. The NYA remains above. If NYA fails below 21701, the gates to Hell will be wide open as stocks collapse. Bulls need SPX above 6501 as fast as possible to stave off the bears.