SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Stock Market Awaits Federal Reserve Rate Decision and Chairman Powell Press Conference; Critical 10-Month MA at 6673 Tested Again; Stocks Tank After Powell Displays Laissez-Faire Attitude about Iran War and Oil Spikes

It has been a multi-month period of sideways choppy slop resolving to the downside. Keystone has described this atypical stock market top since the Fall. It was unique. Note that any of you that bot stocks on the long side in December, January or February, have lost money. You're a sucka. It's funny. Write "Sucka" on a post-it note with a Sharpie and stick it on your forehead. Now you have to explain to your significant other why you lost money when you promised that vast riches were guaranteed, like the guy on television said.

The rolling top (light blue line) would fit a french curve nicely. Many of you never used a french curve. In charting, back when we used lanterns for light and wrote with quill pens (joking), a graph could be curve-fit using a french curve to give it a smooth appearance and help with analysis. Amazon still sells them, however, young men, and old men, are thinking of different French curves like Brigitte. 

The top was well-forecasted and explained in advance with the red rising wedge, negative divergence, upper band violation, price extension, uber bullishness, etc... For a half-year, the US stock market has only moved through a 450-point range at 6550-7000 that is only a 7% to 8% range. Doesn't it feel like the stock market is in the stratosphere due to non-stop television and internet hype? Well, it is not.

Price drops to the orange line that is just shy of filling that orange gap from November. Price tests the level again four days later and bounces. The couple-day rally takes the SPX up to the 150-day MA at 6754 where it hits its head and falls back down. The 150 has street cred going forward. Keeping price below is important for bears and moving above would be a bull victory. The slope of the 150 tells you if the stock or index is in a cyclical bull or bear pattern. The 150 still slopes higher by a hair so the cyclical bull still gets the nod but when price is below, it will flatten and drag the 150 down creating a negative slope and a cyclical bear market.

Price violated the lower standard deviation band so the middle band, also the 20-day MA, at 6816 is on the table going forward. Price also bounced off the lower band on the weekly chart. Previous charts explain the importance of the 10-month MA at 6676 and the 12-month MA at 6515-6520 that would usher-in a bear market. Price violated the 10 but recovered off this key line in the sand. It would be interesting to see another test of the 10-mth MA at 6676.

The SPX is waiting on Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High this afternoon and tell international traders how to trade. Stocks are typically higher 80% of the time the day or so in front of the Fed decision and traders did not waste any time buying the market out of the gate on Monday front-running the expected positivity. Interestingly, the new moon peaks tonight at 9:30 PM EST the darkest overnight time of the month. Stocks are typically soft, about two-thirds of the time, moving through the new moon. First day of spring is Friday.

The brown lines show an H&S pattern so head at 7K and neck line at 68 hundo is 200 difference so a rupture of 6800 would open the door to 6600 that was almost achieved some will say close enough for government work. Price was in the neighborhood of the 200-day MA at 6612 when it bounced. The SPX should show respect and actually touch the 200 to make a bounce or die decision.

The 6550 (dark blue line) is bigtime important price support and represents the entire stock market from September forward. Obviously, a new age begins below 6550 and it is not the Golden Age the orange head brags about; instead it is the New Gilded Age.

The neggie d spankdown occurs in the daily time frame with price dropping and the bulls and dip-buyers are hoping they can catch a break and stop the drop and begin a relief rally. If you follow the lowest price point lower (thin black vertical line), you see that the RSI, histogram, MACD and stochastics remain weak and bleak wanting lower lows in price to continue. The bounce occurs due to the Fed hype, AI hype, chip hype, and other theater, and is helped by the positive divergence with the money flow and the oversold stochastics.

The expectation would be a couple more lower lows in the daily time frame to properly set up possie d for a substantive bounce, but the Fed is on deck and anything can happen.

The ADX showed for the last half-year, despite the all-time record highs, the stock market was not in a strong uptrend. It is plain to see looking back that it was nothing but sideways whipsaw choppy slop. However, after the downdraft, the ADX pops above 29 identifying the down move in stocks as a strong trend lower. The ADX is more of a confirmation and lagging indicator so do not get too worked up about it.

The Aroon showed maximum bullishness at the stock market top with all the bulls bullish and all the bears bullish, too. You knew that was not sustainable. But now we have the opposite; a mirror image. Nearly all the bears believe stocks will continue lower and nearly all the bulls also believe same. Note that the Aroon negative cross told you the top was in early February. Did you listen or do you have that post-it note stuck to your forehead?

King Donnie Chump started a major world war in Iran so that is another metric stirring the stock market pot. Trumpski decided on his own to start war, dissing all the Allies except for Israel, but now has his orange tail between his legs asking for help with the mess he made. Donnie may have permanently changed the nature of oil, fertilizer and food flow through the Strait of Hormuz that means all of us will pay a lot more for stuff going forward. Wars can get out of hand and even be caused by 99 harmless balloons like the one hit wonder protest ear-worm song by NENA. 99 Luftballons.

The drop from 7K to 66 hundo-ish is a -5.7% drop so it did not even qualify for a -10% correction as yet let alone a -20% bear market. The dip-buyers have their fingers on the buy button no matter what. There remains excessive bullishness and optimism in the stock market. The AI follies continue with Emperor Jensen proclaiming that the AI and stock market joy will continue forever (see picture below).

What does all this mumbo-jumbo mean? Obviously, Pope Powell controls the stock market today. Chart-wise, in the daily time frame, there is unfinished business below so a move lower in price would be expected to develop proper positive divergence for a proper bounce. If price keeps moving higher, it would be a big win for bulls moving above the 150-day MA at 6754 that would set up the touch of the middle band, or 20-day MA, at 6816. Above that is a sustained relief rally.

The bears need to drive price lower through the 10-mth MA at 6676, then through the 200-day MA at 6612, then through 6550 price support that will set up the major stock market showdown at the 12-mth MA at 6515-6520 for all the marbles. Pope Powell delivers his sermon in a few hours that will move markets and some may lose their religion. Losing My Religion. Hand me that mandolin, Sonny. Are you losing your religion trying to keep up with others in life? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 10:20 AM EST: The SPX drops to a LOD thus far at 6680 now at 6683. The 10-month MA is at 6673 that warns of serious trouble ahead for the stock market. Chairman Powell is standing in the free buffet line wiping a jelly stain from his necktie as he prepares for his speech.

Note Added 10:25 AM EST: Whoopsies daisies. The SPX drops to 6673 and must make a bounce or die decision. A failure here means doom and gloom ahead. Pope Powell rides in on a pale green horse.

Note Added 6:06 PM EST: Pope Powell arrives on the scene hoping to instill calm but instead the stock market flushes south. Chairman Powell proclaims a laissez-faire attitude about the Iran War and oil spikes preferring to wait and see how it goes. Wait and see is not a plan. The SPX drops faster than a prom dress at midnight losing -1.4% to 6624 with a LOD at 6621 a hair from the 200-day MA at 6615. Is that close enough for government work? Thus, mathematicians say thus, therefore, and ergo a lot, that is why Keystone's invitation to the St Patty's Day gala at the Moose Lodge was rescinded, following the bear scenario above, the 10-mth MA at 6672-6673 failed and next is the test of the 200-day MA at 6615, or, the bulls may be content with the pullback to date and stage a relief rally from right here. A failure of 6615 opens the door for the test of the important long-term 6550 price support. If you bring up the updated daily chart, you see the lower low in price, so the chart indicators can be assessed for positive divergence. All want a bounce except for the MACD line that remains weak and bleak. Stocks will either rally from here in the daily time frame, or perform a jog move over the next 2 days and then rally (up for tomorrow, then down for Friday for a matching price low and the MACD goes possie d so the bottom is in). If you bring up the SPX 2-hour chart, the possie d slaps you in the face. Price is on the launch pad ready to receive the possie d rocket launch higher on the hourly time basis. The SPX weekly chart is excrement. The RSI and money flow are flat over the last 2 weeks so this behavior will help the daily time frame stage a relief rally for a few days or week or so. The MACD, histogram and stochastics remain weak and bleak, so the weekly chart wants to see a lower low in price on the weekly basis. Remember, trading is like playing multi-dimensional chess except the dimension is time instead of space. Thus, stocks, the S&P 500, should rally in the VST (very short term; hours) and ST (short-term; days) but after a few days or week or two of upside joy, should roll over again and make lower lows in price on the weekly basis. The entire year will likely take on a negative bias for stocks. King Donnie Trumpski said that he and his brain trust did not consider that Iran would attack its neighbors. Oh my. That makes you lose confidence in the entire operation. What if a couple of drones are hidden in a 1,000 different spots in Iran and a few are flown each day with warheads? Did they think of that? Did they think that all the oil fields may be set ablaze like a few decades ago? Did they think of all the negative scenarios that were possible in the Strait of Hormuz? What are these dolts doing? Working on a ballroom while the world is burning? The Iran War will continue indefinitely. It would be another Nam. Are we on the Eve of Destruction? Human respect is disintegrating. It's the End of the World, as we know it, and I feel fine. Everybody sing. La-la-la.