Gold Weekly Chart; Setting-Up with Negative Divergence that Will Begin Multi-Week Pullback

All that glitters is not gold. In a couple weeks, or couple days, the fantastic gold orgy will devolve into a pyrite pity party. The gold daily chart continues to show buoyancy higher on the daily basis. The weekly chart above shows the gold orgy in all its glory. Buying 10 grand in gold in 2016 gets you over 40K in gold now. Congratulations to the gold bugs.

All good things must end, but not quite yet. This is a weekly chart so it will have a new candlestick in progress for the new week at 9:30 AM EST tomorrow morning. If you made a boatload of dough on the gold run, consider exiting stage right.

The red lines show all the chart indicators sloping down, negatively, but price is not at a matching or higher high as compared to the prices at the Tweezer Top (blue circle). By definition, negative divergence occurs when price makes the matching or higher high and the chart indicators are all sloping down showing that they are out of gas and do not have any more strength to take price higher. Gold is almost there but not yet. Gold price needs to move higher a bit more before the neggie d would be locked-in on the weekly basis.

Thus, if you want to time the top to go short, or think about how to scale-out over the next couple weeks, simply watch for the price to move a bit higher, to that thin red line, and then check the indicators to see if they all remain neggie d. If so, you can call the top in gold and predict a multi-week pullback ahead.

In the morning, when the new candlestick begins printing, check the MACD line. It is always a sneaky bugger and if the upside is extended a wee bit longer, it will be due to the MACD line making a higher high. Watch it closely this week. If the MACD is long and strong, that likely says a jog move is needed, down for the week ahead, and the price will come right back up the week after and that is when the MACD will go neggie d again, and if the other indicators are neggie d, that will be the top. You get the idea.

Gold is set up on the weekly basis to top out anytime over the next couple weeks. The chart will tell you when, then hone in on the daily and 2-hour charts for more specific timing of the top.

The purple arrows show the tight standard deviation band squeezes. The tight bands, that are different than the tight bands such as the Counting Crows, predict a big move in price to occur but they do not predict direction. All 4 of the gold tight bands over the last couple years resolved to the upside. Gold bears never had a chance.

Of course, gold is going to be impacted, because the dollar and rates will be impacted, on Fed decision day 12/10/25, next Wednesday, so that will need factored into the mix. Market makers may try to keep all markets stable and sideways into the Fed decision in 8 trading days.

Simply watch the price and once it is matching the early October closing highs, and the neggie d on the indicators remains in place, gold is cooked on the weekly basis and will begin a multi-week descent. Keystone is not playing gold now long or short. The GLD ETF chart is the same dealio and you can see that the MACD wants to sneak higher so keep an eye on it. The GLL ETF, that is the inverse gold ETF, that goes up if gold goes down, is down in the cellar, as would be expected with gold at record highs, and it is setting up with positive divergence, as would be expected. So a potential play as soon as the neggie d locks in for the top would be GLL long or shorting GLD. There are other ETF's to play. Do not play that 3x leveraged garbage. The 2x ETF's are leveraged enough if you seek risk.

Whoa. Check that out. The neggie d is in place for GDX, the gold miners. Ditto the juniors; GDXJ. Let the new candlestick start tomorrow morning and check the charts but both of these are likely topped-out and will begin a multi-week move lower. Keystone is not in the gold miners long or short but obviously, the play is short going forward.

NEM price is not at a matching high, yet, but it is almost neggie d. DUST (inverse gold miners) has finally been punished enough and its weekly chart is set up with possie d and ready to recover so check on this one and its new candlestick after the opening bell. The Solid Gold Dancers had legs that went on forever. Add in a top-shelf performer at the top of her game the perfect Irene Cara. You are born with that. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios Daily Charts; Multi-Month Lows Verify Rampant Complacency and Euphoric Bullishness and Forecast Large Drop in Stocks Ahead

Get out of the stock market while you can. Huge shake-out coming due to the rampant complacency, and now out of control euphoric bullishness. Both the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios are at multi-month lows. Go short. All the bulls, and all the bears, expect stocks to go up forever; but they don't. In fact, when everyone is at the bull party on one side of the boat it capsizes. The bull party kicks into high gear with everyone dancing and singing Una Paloma Blanca.

The US stock market, the S&P 500, the SPX, will top-out within days, and then drop from 400 to 1,000 points in a quick few weeks. Thus, in January, the SPX may be sporting a 5 handle. Current price to start off the new trading month of December, and last month of the year, is 6850-ish. Taking away the 400 to 1,000 points places the index down at 5850-6450 in a few weeks. That will get everyone's attention.

The television and internet talking heads are universally bullish channeling Irving Fisher in 1929 that said the stock market is at a permanently high plateau. How did that work out? It is funny. Bears are as rare as hen's teeth. The recent SPX orgies occur on rate cut promises, AI hype, and holiday cheer, while ignoring and downplaying all bad news.

Further, the recent selloff is declared the shakeout everyone was waiting for so now the coast is clear. There are jackasses now calling for SPX 8K next year. What are they smoking? That must be some good ganja that makes you see things. Pass it around to everyone. Oh, you already did.

The pundits, analysts and strategist, bulls all, proclaim that at this point, the dotcom bubble top did not occur for 2 more years so there is nothing to worry about. Don't you idiots understand that the talking heads are pumping and dumping? They tell you, Joe Retail, to be the bagholding sucka while they sneak out the back door like all thieves. Are you willing to be the sucka and lose your money? All the stock market hijinks and malarky is a recipe for disaster and the short-sellers are sitting at the table ready to dine.

The major topping behavior at 6500-6900 continues for 3 months. The major topping behavior at 6200-6900 continues for 5 months. The SPX all-time high is 6920.34 on 10/29/25 and the all-time closing high is 6890.89 on 10/28/25. The SPX only needs 50 points to be at record highs so do not rule out a pop of a hundo or so points before the exact top in the days ahead. The SPX 2-hour chart will help with the timing.

The Fed rate cut is next Wednesday, 8 trading days away, so bulls are going to try and keep equities elevated in the week ahead, since that will carry them into the Fed decision day (stocks are higher 80% of the time the couple days leading into a Fed meeting). It will be interesting to see if the selloff begins before the Fed meeting on 12/9/25 and 12/10/25, or, if the Fed decision may cause the stock market to print the top and then nosedive off the cliff.

The Keybot the Quant trading robot is long right now so it will be very telling when the quant flips short.

She is going to be a doozy. Plan accordingly. Ditch the longs or at least take on a lot of protection via puts or inverse ETF's. You can scale-in to the inverse ETF's over the coming days and want to be loaded up short within, say, the next couple weeks. If you hold on to all your longs in your stock portfolio, you are going to get hosed bigtime. Cue Barry. Eve of Destruction. Human respect is disintegrating. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Rampant Complacency, Fearlessness, and Euphoric Bullishness Continues; Stay Guarded for a Significant Top in Progress

Happy Thanksgiving. The turkeys are running for their lives. Everybody and his bro now proclaims that the bottom is in for stocks and that healthy little pullback sets up the end of year bigtime rally. The sky is blue with rainbows. A unicorn walks by. What a Wonderful World as Satchmo sings. The color of the rainbows.....

Traders are tripping over each other to buy stocks worried that they will miss out on the bigtime end of year rally that they perceive. The rampant complacency and euphoric bullishness is historic, and enduring, so far. Stocks rally this week to the moon pumped by retail stocks, utilities, chips, banks, commodities, it is one big party, and yesterday volatility collapses creating another spurt higher.

The rampant complacency and fearlessness in the stock market has gone nowhere. It remains in place. The little November selloff is small potatoes. You ain't seen nuttin' yet. Everyone must pay for their misplaced optimism and euphoric bullishness and this is the path ahead.

The last three red circles on the right hand side of the charts verify the rampant complacency. No one is buying put protection, instead it is calls all the way. No one needs downside protection because they say the stock market is going up non-stop and the pullback is great because you can buy more stocks cheaper. These folks are going to get bludgeoned by the real pullback that is coming.

Generally for the CPC, you want to go short when the numbers are down at 0.75-ish. The CPC and CPCE remain good tools but like everything else these days, the numbers are dealing with a lot of counterforces and conflicting signals. A good time to go long is to nibble on positions you want to open when the CPC moves above 1.05-1.10. The 1.20 is a solid buy, buy, buy signal. That is when the panic and fear is so rampant that stocks have nowhere to go but back up. Timmy Trader was so panicked during the April selloff, he ran over to the window and jumped out. Coworkers were mortified but then realized the trading floor is on the ground level.

Note that all the bottoms since the big April bottom come with lower CPC numbers below the 1.20. It tells you that the stock market has not seen the panic and fear yet. Keystone loves panic and fear because people run out of the burning building, with their hair on fire, swearing that they never want to own stocks ever again, and he will gladly take those shares off their hands.

But the recent crazy price action is not inspiring to go long. The Keybot the Quant algorithm flipped back to the long side this week as more AI hype, other happy talk, and the Hassett orgy kicked into high gear. Hassett has orange on the tip of his nose. He is not a brown-noser, he is an orange-noser. News hit that Hassett has the inside track for the Federal Reserve chairman job after Powell is finished in May and, since he is King Donnie's lackey, will lower rates (Trump is a real estate guy so he loves debt) so traders immediately hit the buy, buy, buy buttons. The easy money of lower rates will flow into the stock market making the rich, that own the stock market, richer. It is crony capitalism filth on full display daily. There are actually stupid people that think capitalism exists. That's funny.

Do not take a lackadaisical approach to stocks. Consider the big rally this week to be another opportunity to exit the stock market.  You will know a tradeable bottom is in and it is worthy to buy stocks on the long side when the CPC tags 1.20. Until then, be super cautious and if you are holding a lot of longs, you are likely going to lose a lot of money. Keybot the Quant turned uber bullish so it will be interesting to see when that joy reverses since the robot only sees 1's and 0's. Sing us a song, Piano Man. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant flips long this morning at SPX 6672. The bulls pump chips, commodities and utilities creating the upside joy. The stock market choppy slop continues. Chop suey is served cold to both bulls and bears.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts; H&S; November Rain Falls On Stocks

The neggie d spankdowns continue in the daily and weekly time frames. On the daily chart, price tagged the upper standard deviation band so a trip back to the middle band, the 20-day MA, at 6763, was on the table, and the lower band at 6559, and both occur. A trip back up to the 20 is on the table for a relief rally.

Price makes the lower low on the daily chart and the RSI, histogram, and stochastics are positively diverged wanting to see a bounce and start of a relief rally. Ditto the oversold stochastics. However, the MACD line and money flow remain weak and bleak wanting a jog move to occur (down-up or up-down-up) to create possie d and the bottom. Positive news may occur that will also begin a relief rally.

Price typically rallies from the 100-day MA at 6548 and that is why price is sitting there over the weekend. It is making a bounce or die decision and dip-buyers anxiously bot stocks seeing that the SPX has dropped to the 100.

The SPX weekly chart remains nasty with indicators weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows and lower highs on a weekly basis ahead. The multi-week pullback should continue into December. That makes sense since the first couple weeks of December is a lot of tax-loss selling that may create a crescendo down below. Price bounced off the 20-wk MA at 6548 (same as the 100-day MA) so that moving average carries clout going forward.

This week markets are closed for Thanksgiving on Thursday and Friday is a half-day closing at 1 PM EST. Traders may be in a good mood for the holiday and with the daily chart trying to establish a bottom, perhaps some recovery in stocks may occur into the holiday weekend. When a month is down, like now, the last few days are usually a recovery rally. However, as mentioned, the weekly chart is bad so the lower prices would then expect to re-exert themselves.

The other outcome is going down the tubes right now, this week, holiday be damned. That would manifest by a failure of the blue H&S pattern on the daily chart. With a head at 69 hundo and necklines at 6600 and 6550, the downside target, if the necklines fail is 6200-6300. Note that the 6600 neckline failed, and then price came up for the back kiss Friday and sits there for the bounce or die decision tomorrow. If price begins falling through 6500 and lower the 6200-6300 is likely on tap.

The orange circles show lots of gaps to fill and price came down last week to fill the gap from early September. That gap from late June at 6050 is big enough to drive the proverbial truck through. The bulls and bears battle wondering if the November Rain will continue through the end of the month. If so, the bulls will be crying, like Slash's guitar. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Books Nearing Publication

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology is nearing publication, now a group of books, after over one year in editing and proofing.  Keystone is a one man band and does not have a dozen staff so reviewing over 1.2 million words (the size of two "War and Peace" novels) and 1,000 COVID-19 charts takes a while. The Coronavirus Chronology chronicled each day of the COVID-19 pandemic; it is the China Virus Bible.

Keystone is currently reviewing wave 8 so the finish line is in sight. The Coronavirus Chronology will be published as an ebook on Amazon with hardcopy manuals likely in the future. The Coronavirus Chronology is split into three volumes. Volume 1 is the first four infection waves. Volume 2 is waves 5 and 6. Volume 3 is waves 7a, 7b and 8. Each volume has over 300 covid charts of countries worldwide and individual US states including daily new cases, active cases, deaths and other metrics.

The chart above gives you the view of the pandemic from 40,000 feet (12,000 m). It was one Hell of a ride. Keystone wrote from 2 to 8 hours per day for 3 years to record the pandemic. Keystone did not plan to take time out of life to pursue such a monumental task but the pandemic picked him. Sometimes an invisible force taps you on the shoulder. It was obvious that a detailed historic account would be needed chronicling the pandemic once the virus appeared serious in early 2020.

Keystone took on the task to properly record the pandemic for historical sake. Keystone did it for the United States of America so there would be an accurate record of the terrible event for many decades forward.

Keystone dislikes both corrupt political parties so he was the ideal writer to provide an unbiased view of the daily covid events and news from 2020 into early 2023 when the endemic phase took control. President Trump is bashed for his mishandling of the pandemic in 2020 and President Biden is ridiculed for his mishandling of the pandemic from 2021 forward.

The Coronavirus Chronology is the authority on the pandemic and prevents any revisionist story-telling. 

The following books are on the docket;

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Volume 1 Infection Waves 1 through 4 with Charts; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Pandemic to be published within a couple months

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Volume 2 Infection Waves 5 and 6 with Charts; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Pandemic to be published within a couple months

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Volume 3 Infection Waves 7a, 7b and 8 with Charts; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Pandemic to be published within a couple months

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Abridged Text; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Pandemic to be published in 2026 (this book pulls the most important news and events from the Coronavirus Chronology main volumes providing an abridged and shorter reading experience; the volumes can then be used for deeper dives)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Aftermath; The Official Real-Time Historical Record and Daily Timeline of the COVID-19 Worldwide Endemic Phase to be published in 2026 (this book is the daily chronology of the covid endemic phase from February 2023 to early 2025)

Coronavirus (COVID-19) Chronology Conclusions to be published in 2026 (this book will highlight the major mistakes and problems during the pandemic and suggest many useful conclusions and suggestions to follow in the future including technical analysis for infection waves and using the CDC County map as a valuable tool for future pandemics)

So hold on to your hats. The books that tell you the truth about the COVID-19 pandemic are on their way. Of course, Keystone is never winning any popularity contests with his cynical and satirical writing. Keystone does not carry any water for either corrupt political party.

The Coronavirus Chronology was hassled and censored during the covid pandemic and to this day the articles are banned and buried in the Big Tech search engines (under the Biden administration's strong arm). Soon, it all will be out in the bright light so anyone can re-experience each day of the pandemic, if you dare. Readers will discover that they forgot 90% of what happened during the pandemic.

All the Coronavirus Chronology articles remain in the archives on the web site here so if you need specific pandemic information and you have a target date in the past, simply look it up in the archives until the books are published.

After this message announcing that the Coronavirus COVID-19 Chronology books are coming close to publication, Keystone will surely be further shunned, removed from the Whitehouse Christmas card list, and not invited to any of the Wall Street holiday parties. Writing is a lonely endeavor but someone has to do it.

NVDA NVIDIA Weekly Chart; Neggie D Spankdown in Progress

The NVDA and bitcoin charts are similar so it leads you to believe that young traders that are pro-bitcoin, have been increasing their leverage on NVDA, and visa versa, as the price of bitcoin, and NVIDIA, move higher. That bubble popped.

Humorously, idiot America is spending money hand over fist for AI chips that run hot, and expansive data centers, that do not even yet have the power available to operate, while the lifespan of the chip decreases. By the time the data centers come on line, the chips may be obsolete. All this so the stupid chatbot garbage can tell you what to buy faster. Pause for laughter.

Even funnier, one of the godfathers of AI was asked what advice he would give to a young person starting their career. He paused, and then definitively said, "Be a plumber." There are high hopes for Big Tech that is caught up in the AI circle-jerk where Peter lends money to Paul that gives the money back to Peter because he is buying a new Rubin chip to heat-up his Reuben sandwich at lunchtime. And the banksters and lawyers standing in the shadows, so you can't see their faces, say they got it covered. Yes, this is all going to end well. Pause for laughter again.

There is always some AI hype news that will bounce price for a while but then it slumps back over again. The latest is selling the H200 chips to commie China so the fans went wild on Friday, a little bit, then they lost their gumption, and fell on their swords. NVDA falls -6% last week. Two years ago, you could have bot it at 40 or 50 bucks and lots of traders with big profits are patient and holding on to their shares.

The red rising wedge is ominous; a bearish pattern. The red lines show universal negative divergence across all indicators as price moved higher locking in the top and neggie d spankdown, which occurs and is in progress. It is a multi-week top so there is lots more downside ahead. It is comical to see people step up to the plate to save the day making big block purchases of stock proclaiming the bottom is in, only to have their head handed to them on a platter. It's fun observing human nature. Each investor thinks they are Jesse Livermore; they are, but for different reasons like when he lost his shirt.

The indicators remain weak and bleak so even if a short-term relief rally appears, especially with everyone more focused on eating turkey on Thursday, NVDA will roll over and die again on the weekly basis. You have to wait for the indicators to set up with positive divergence to call the bottom but that is likely several weeks away.

Price is 179 sitting on the 20-wk MA support at 180 so it must make a bounce or die decision out of the gate Monday morning. The 165-ish is price support from August. Price violated the upper band so the middle band, that is the 20 MA at 180, was targeted, and achieved, and the lower band at 163 is also on the table going forward. This price action forms a confluence with the price support so 163-165 may act as a magnet for price. The 50-wk MA at 149 may also serve as price support as the multi-week pullback continues.

The purple arrows show a tight band squeeze so the move for NVDA right now will be a biggie. Tight bands only tell you that the magnitude of the coming price move will be large but it does not predict direction. The squeeze back in late 2023 resulted in the upside AI orgy. The squeeze early this year resulted in a downside collapse. What will this squeeze reveal? It is already moving down so the bulls must turn it around within a couple weeks, otherwise, the beatings will continue until moral improves, and price will drop a lot more.

The ADX shows that the upward rally in NVIDIA was a strong trend higher (pink box) but that ended a year ago. Since then, price stumbles sideways like a drunk in Times Square, and the recent upside is not identified as a strong trend higher (needs to move above ADX 30). It likely will not going forward either due to the pullback that has started.

The Aroon verifies the ridiculous sentiment in the stock market currently. The green line shows that nearly all the bulls remain bullish on NVDA expecting higher prices forever on the weekly basis going forward. Comically, all the bears (red line) believe NVDA will go up forever, too. Despite the pullback so far, this type of misplaced sentiment hints that there is lots more downside ahead.

This euphoric human joy must be crushed by the falling stock price on a weekly basis before a bottom can be found. Jade Bird sings, "I Get No Joy." Such a powerful voice out of that pretty petite little girl. Keystone is not long or short NVDA and has no plans to play it; maybe on the long side when the weekly chart sets up with possie d. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

DJT Trump Media & Technology Group Weekly Chart; Trump's Media Company Crashes -94% in 4 Years; Crashes -70% This Year; Crashes -33% in the Last 3 Weeks; That is a Lot of Crashing

King Donnie's media company, that owns a lot of bitcoin, DJT, crashes into oblivion. No wonder the orange head is in a bad mood in recent days with a gravelly voice, disheveled hair and bags under his eyes that look like coin slots. Donnie must be up all night losing sleep over losing money.

DJT stock is a complete disaster; humorously, it is a low IQ stock. What happened to all the winning? That chart is losing and crashing and burning. DJT came to market in late 2021 and shot up to 175 on its debut. Four years later, it is at 10 bucks a huge -94% crash. But let us be more lenient because that 175 buy was likely an investor that wanted to kiss Donnie's butt to receive a future favor; a quid pro quo. Such is America's crony capitalism system.

DJT stock started this year at 35.62 a respectable value and an equity that is holding its own despite a big drop in 2024. But it is lower lows and lower highs since then. The rats are leaving the sinking DJT ship. DJT drops from 35 to 10 this year a -70% crash. That beating is going to leave a mark. If Mommy or Daddy bought you DJT stock for a Christmas or Hannukah gift after Donnie won reelection last year, you are now complaining to them that they should have given you the Mercedes convertible instead; at least it would be worth something now.

The coup de grace, the final blow, is the last 3 weeks. DJT stock is taken to the shed out back behind the garage and beaten mercilessly from 15 to 10 a -33% crash. DJT stock is collapsing -11% per week for the last 3 weeks. Donnie is losing his silk shirt, and gold cufflinks.

The downward-sloping channel is respected by price with many touches of the top and bottom rails. DJT has suffered serious technical damage. As bitcoin goes, so goes DJT stock. Bitcoin loses -30% over the last 3 weeks on par and in sync with the DJT loss. Donnie put all his eggs in the bitcoin basket but he did not realize it had a hole in the bottom.

Raise your hand if you are buying DJT stock for your children as a holiday gift this year. No one? Any one? Bueller? If you got involved with the orange one, you got fleeced. He is a business idiot. If your dad gave you a half billion dollars, and opened all the doors to Manhattan real estate for you, and all you have is $1 to $3 billion 40 years later, that continued to dwindle away before political office boosted your coffers again, you are a business fool. You should have $50 billion after that rich kid head start. He is lucky he did not lose it all. Remember when he would brag that he was worth over $10 billion during his first term in office because he wanted the double-digit number? That was always a lie.

The DJT stock is a turd now. Keystone is not long or short DJT and not interested in playing it.  It will be interesting to see how much it recovers as bitcoin recovers. They went down in sync. Will they go up in sync? If DJT lags bitcoin on the way back up, that tells you that traders and investors jumped ship and they are not coming back. In trading, Another One Bites the Dust. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart

While everyone is focused on the AI hype and NVDA earnings, utilities decide to sneak over to the bear camp and create stock market negativity. You will have to watch this closely since it will tell you if the stock market will crash going forward.

It is the same ole drill for the utes. The two important metrics are the closing price from 15 weeks ago, that dictates a weekly uptrend or downtrend, and the 50-wk MA now at 1051. Utilities have been a rocket shot over the last few months due to the AI hype and buildout. Massive amounts of energy are needed to cool the AI chips and cool the buildings housing the chips. You can heat a Reuben sandwich on top of those new Rubin chips.

So utes go to the moon on the AI fuel. Utilities are important because when they lead the broad stock market lower, there is bigtime Hell to pay in equities and the pullback will not be a minor event. Utes have been heading lower for over 5 weeks and started the ball rolling downhill for the broad stock market; a bad omen.

Today, some bad stuff happened. The clock just fell off the wall in Chairman Powell's office and a cheap gold-plated gawdy ornamental decoration just fell off the fireplace in the Oval Office. King Donnie will have to stick it back in place with some stronger glue. Utilities failed into a weekly downtrend.

The blue circle is the closing price 15 weeks ago at 1113.47. Price is now at 1107. That is bad news, Buckwheat. For next week, the holiday-shortened Thanksgiving week, the 1113.47 is meaningless and replaced with 1103.18. For the week of 12/1/25, the 1103.18 becomes meaningless and is replaced with 1109.48. After that, the ute closing price from 15 weeks ago drops so the comparisons become a lot easier for the bulls. If the bears are going to flex their muscles and create carnage in the US stock market, they need to do it over the next 2-4 weeks. For bears, it is the proverbial time to sh*t or get off the pot.

Note that price dropped to 1104 today already teasing the 1103 line in the sand coming fast for next week. Watch UTIL price at the end of the Friday session since that will tell you the story for next week ahead of time.

If UTIL pops back above 1113.47 Thursday or Friday, the stock market will recover with a relief rally.

If UTIL remains below 1113.47 Thursday and Friday, the stock market will remain sick with a downward bias.

If UTIL remains below 1103.18 for next week, the stock market selling will worsen and the downside will become more extensive.

If UTIL remains below 1109.48 for the week of 12/1/25, the stock market will be in bad shape.

If UTIL, at anytime over the next 3 weeks, falls below 1051, a trap-door will open for the US stock market. The SPX can be expected to quickly drop 30 or 40 handles in quick order and then the stock market will worsen as time moves forward. If the 50-wk MA at 1051 fails, consider the stock market to be in a crash profile with historic downside on tap. It's fun. 

Be very afraid going forward. Utilities leading lower is strike one. Utilities falling into a weekly downtrend is strike two. Utes falling through the trap-door at 1051 is strike three and yer out. Meanwhile, it is time to relax and play Greensleeves on the lute, while watching the utes. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: UTIL drops to 1104 ready to test the key 1103 level in play for all of next week. If the week ends with UTIL above 1103, the bulls will try to stage a comeback next week. If UTIL finishes the week below 1103, there will be Hell to pay next week. Now it is time to listen to Ian's flute, while watching the utes. Locomotive Breath. Over the top performance.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: UTIL ends the week at 1107 after getting spanked down from 1113 between noon time and 2 PM EST. Utes then rolled over to die. However, the bulls want to stay in the game for next week so they finish the day above the critical 1103.18 in play for all of next week. Price fell below 1103 on Friday but recovered to 1107 at the close. The bears needed UTIL to remain below 1103 to start the new week off on a down beat, but instead, the bulls will offer an upbeat up-tempo start if UTIL remains above 1103. Watch the utes closely over the next couple weeks. They will tell you a lot. Up-tempo and the upbeat wins but the downbeat is only 4 points away. More Than a Feeling.

BTCUSD Bitcoin Weekly Chart; Bitcoin Bit the Dust Crashing -29% in 6 Weeks

Bitcoin bit the dust. Kansas coughs from the Dust in the Wind. From 126K+, the record high in early October, to sub 90K, in only 6 weeks. That is a -29% crash; a bed-sh*tting. King Donnie must be clenching his buttocks since the family is grifting off bitcoin and other cybercurrency derivatives these days. The dude is not a good businessman. The tight bands (that tell you a big move is coming but do not predict direction) squeeze price lower and bitcoin is beaten below its lower standard deviation line. Poor bitcoin is lying on the shed floor out back behind the garage, beaten to a pulp; a mouse scurries over its leg as bitcoin yells to try and get help from the neighbor.

Bitcoin enthusiasts are tripping over each other each wanting to be the wise one that calls the bottom in their idol bitcoin. Investors step up announcing large block purchases, and 10 minutes later they are crying in their beer at the money they lost real fast. Catching a falling knife is tricky usually resulting in bloody hands. It is a mystery why people make asses out of themselves when all they have to do is wait for possie d on the charts so they can call the bottom and buy bitcoin with less risk.

The bitcoin daily chart (not shown) is setting up with positive divergence. It may chop for a day or few but should stage a relief rally on the daily basis. Bitcoin bulls will no doubt proclaim that the bottom is in so many will buy some bitcoin, only to get their head handed to them again since price wants to see lower lows, on the weekly basis, due to the weak and bleak chart indicators.

The top was textbook with the red rising wedge, a bearish pattern, overbot conditions during the summer, upper band violation, and price extension above the moving averages, and most importantly, neggie d. The negative divergence spankdown begins the same week the historic bitcoin all-time record top is printed at 126K+ in early October. Alas, 6 weeks later and it dropped to sub 90K for a heartbeat. If you are holding a lot of bitcoin, you have to check your shorts, because you just sh*t yourself. Business media says everyone that bot into the bitcoin and cybercurrency ETF's are now underwater. 

Bitcoin receives the neggie d smackdown on the weekly basis, now 6 weeks along, and you can see why price stops here for a look-see (strong price support over the last year). A doji candlestick is in play for this week that means bulls and bears are battling and it is equal so far. Bitcoin stops on the key price support over the last year (blue line). Bitcoin must decide to bounce or die from this level.

The chart indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see lower prices for bitcoin on the weekly basis going forward sans the RSI and oversold stochastics. Thus, the daily time frame wants to set up for a relief rally and that jives with the RSI and stoch's on the weekly chart above as well as the price that has fallen through the lower deviation band. 

Thus, with an index finger pointed in the air, marrying the daily and weekly time frames, bitcoin will likely bottom on the daily basis this week and rally for a few days. But the weakness on the weekly chart will reexert itself and bitcoin will roll back over to the downside to satisfy the weekly basis and print new lower lows. Remember, trading is like playing 3D chess, only it is 5D and time is the variable not space (minutes, hours, days, weeks, months).

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, it is the exciting life we live, if a nimble trader, you can give the rally on the daily basis a try for some quick money, and then ditch that long in a few days and go short again; very tricky trading with a volatile asset like bitcoin. Let's check the 2-hour. The bitcoin 2-hour chart created the bounce off the bottom; it is in universal possie d.

Keystone was shorting bitcoin over the last few months a pain in the butt due to the choppy sideways slop, but it worked out in the end and the trades are covered with nice profits. Keystone is not long or short bitcoin right now and does not plan on playing it in the very short-term (VST). King Donnie will likely see the money he lost and will make some kind of positive bitcoin announcement (that perpetuates the crony capitalism system) that will create a bottom in bitcoin, but it makes it difficult to trade since Donnie can save the day at any time.

Keystone will wait for the weekly chart above to set up with positive divergence and consider getting back in on the long side then. There is no point to trying to be a hero now. Wait for possie d so you know price is fueled-up and ready to run higher. Bitcoin likely needs another couple-three weeks to set up long on the weekly basis. Simply wait for the positive divergence to set up.

Bitcoin may recover for a week or two, then roll over again, but the indicators above may be possie d at that point, perhaps except for the MACD line, so call it 2 to 4 weeks. Again, no need for guessing. Simply watch the chart above and wait for it to set up with positive divergence to go long; conversely, just like going short due to the negative divergence shown above in red that was a winner.

Sure, bitcoin may take off like a rocket higher when King Donnie decrees that the regulators will lay out a red carpet for all bitcoin derivatives going forward or some other ridiculously happy news for cybercurrencies, but the weekly chart above does not make you want to be long. Give it a couple weeks and the landing zone in the 77K-85K may be the place to go long (if all indicators are set up with possie d on the weekly chart above).

Gold and bitcoin were the two darlings considered to be a store of wealth. Investors abandoned bitcoin since it exists somewhere in the ether on the smartphone, and prefer gold that you can hold in your hands. Gold remains elevated, but bitcoin took the pipe, but when stocks begin falling in earnest, gold will be sold off, too. Gold On the Ceiling. Hurry up! Time to get to the Bowery for the concert. It's gonna be a good one. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: Bitcoin drops to 86.5K. The broad stock market takes the pipe today.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: Bitcoin drops to 83.8K and teased the 80K level yesterday. King Donnie's DJT stock has lost -33% over the last 3 weeks due to the bitcoin collapse and DJT is down -70% this year. Oh my, lots of folks got fleeced in that stock. Let's take a look at the charts to see what is going on. If you bring up the bitcoin daily chart, you see price making the lower low and so is the RSI, MACD and money flow; they are weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows on the daily basis. The overbot RSI, stochastics, and money flow are agreeable to a bullish bounce. Ditto positive divergence for the stochastics and histogram. It is a mixed bag and likely needs 1 to 3 days to set up with possie d to place the bottom and begin a relief rally on the daily basis. The bottom can happen immediately if King Donnie proclaims something great about bitcoin and cybercurrency. The weak and bleak RSI, MACD and money flow values are way down in the cellar so they have nowhere to go but up. A jog move may be all it needs up on Sunday or Monday then down again on Sunday or Monday to place the bottom on the daily basis. You do not have to guess; simply call the bottom when all the indicators are possie d. It will likely be this week but it is tricky since it is the Thanksgiving holiday week. The weekly chart is a waterfall. If you bot at 120K +, perhaps at the 126K top, you are soiling yourself looking at that chart. Price makes a new low on the weekly basis and the RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow are all weak and bleak. Bitcoin will set up and bounce on the daily basis but then in a week or so will roll back over to the downside since the weekly chart still wants to go down substantively. It may simply keep biting the dust until the weekly chart goes possie d. It is likely smart to wait for the possie d to form for all the indicators on the weekly chart before buying bitcoin long again and that is likely 2 to 4 weeks away. Do not guess, simply watch the chart.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bearish

Keystone's trading robot, Keybot the Quant flips short this morning, finally, at SPX 6637. Chips fail creating today's negativity. Bulls need SOX above 6620 or they got buptkis.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence-Almost; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Is everyone having fun with the couple months of choppy slop? Chop suey. Bulls and bears get chewed up in choppiness since they juke when they should have jived. Sometimes an investment portfolio can be like a bar of soap; the more you handle it (making too many trades), the smaller it gets.

The couple-month blow-off top behavior continues as the Wall Street analysts continue telling everyone to buy the dip and SPX 7K and higher is around the corner. Well, it may have got up and walked away since price now has a 6.6K handle. The stock market top has been previously explained with the neggie d on the short-term daily and intermediate-term weekly charts. It is time to take a look at the SPX monthly chart to do some long-term fortune-telling.

The gypsies do a lot of fortune-telling. At the gypsy campfire, the bulls are opining about the all-time S&P 500 record high at 6920 on 10/29/25 and all-time closing high at 6891 on 10/28/25; last month. It was a Halloween treat unlike Keystone's pillowcase that only had rocks. The gypsies sing, "Those Were the Days" my friend, we thought they'd never end. 40 gypsies gather outside a convenience store. The leader Alexi tells Radu, Stefan and Zina to keep the clerk busy while the other gypsies rob the store blind. Alexi tells Zina to drop her frilly white blouse a couple inches to show more cleavage. Let us then meet at the Gypsy Caravan and campfire later where we will dance, and sing! It is the gypsy way! It is the gypsy life! It is the life we choose! Sing! Dance!

Anyhoo, the SPX monthly chart is topping-out with neggie d (red lines) that has serious negative ramifications for the stock market, and economy, going forward for the coming months, and perhaps several years. There is one fly in the bear's soup, however. Keystone was served in a restaurant years ago and there was a half-dead fly swimming in his soup. Keystone asked the waiter, "What is this fly doing in my soup!?" The waiter said, "The backstroke."

All the chart indicators are negatively diverged wanting to see a major spankdown in stocks on the monthly basis except for the blue circle showing the temperamental MACD line. The close-up of the monthly candles are provided in the other chart and you can see that the MACD line is flatter than a newlywed's souffle, as Art Cashin would say. The top is only in if the MACD line is flat or sloping lower (negative divergence, neggie d, occurs when price is printing matching and higher highs but the chart indicators are sloping down showing that they are out of gas and can no longer take price higher).

In a couple weeks, the answer will be known if this is THE stock market top now, in real-time, or if it will be delayed one or two more months. Right now, you have to give it to the bears since the other chart indicators are clearly neggie d and the MACD is up in nosebleed territory with nowhere to go but down. Nonetheless, watch it closely over the coming days.

There are 8 trading days remaining in November and the Thanksgiving holiday is next week. The November candlestick will be cast in concrete at 4 PM EST on 11/28/25. If price continues to drop, it will drag the MACD line lower and more easily confirm that the MACD line is in neggie d and the top is locked-in. The first couple days of December will be key since a new monthly candlestick will begin providing information to verify the top, or not. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, in two weeks you will be able to forecast the top and pending long-term takedown of the US stock market.

The ADX pink box shows that the last strong trend for the SPX, on a monthly basis, was back in 2018  seven years ago. All those record highs since then and the ADX has never considered the upside price action to be a strong trend. That is interesting. Keystone considers the May 2015 top the last legitimate top for the stock market. Everything since then is excessive monetary (Fed money-printing) and fiscal (Congress handing out checks and free money, for example, during the COVID-19 pandemic) stimulus that has made the wealthy filthy rich effortlessly (the easy money flows into the stock market boosting prices and the wealthy privileged class own the majority of the stock market; it is called crony capitalism filth). Just think, in 2 or 3 years, we will likely be down at SPX 2K-3K.

Price violates the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-mth MA, at 5930, is on the table. The 10-mth MA at 6225 is a fave among the old-timer's since it is an early warning signal that the stock market is in serious trouble. If price then loses the 12-mth MA at 6181, it is lights-out for the stock market that may go into a crash profile. So there is lots of fun ahead.

The SPX is also extended above the moving average ribbon (price is above the 10 above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 200) so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. The overbot RSI and stochastics are also agreeable to a pullback in equities. The red rising wedge also creates and reinforces the bearish vibe.

The chart is a POS, folks, and remember, it represents a longer-term basis. The SPX is lying on the gurney receiving Last rites. The blue circle will tell us over the next couple weeks if the patient dies, or, if a morphine drip can keep the zombie alive for another month. Plan accordingly. "It's the End of the World," but I feel fine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts

The stock market topping drama continues. The bulls do not want to let go. Every day is another day of singing the happy flute song Una Paloma Blanca as dip-buyers remain active. It appears the song created a goofy dance that looks like fun. That is an ear worm song that you will hear the rest of the day. It will put you in a good mood.

Anyhoo, looking at the daily chart spaghetti, the light blue lines show the H&S that was nullified, then the purple bars show the double top that was nullified. The orange circle is the 'inflation data' orgy and the dark blue circle is the 'US/China trade deal' orgy and the brown circle is the 'end of US government shutdown' orgy. Note that a new H&S pattern is now in play with the head at the all-time record high.

Stocks are choppy slop through the 6550-6830 area for the last 2-1/2 months. Chop suey. As previously explained, the negative divergence, red rising wedge, overbot conditions, upper band violation, and price extension above the moving average ribbon all call the top, that occurs. Stocks are hesitant at moving lower due to the excessive euphoric bullishness that remains in the stock market and evidenced by the relentless dip-buyers.

The lower band is violated so a move back up to the middle band, that is the 20-day MA, at 6794, is on the table. Price bounced off the 50-day MA at 6704 on Friday mimicking the move from 5 days prior as the end of government shutdown orgy kicked into high gear. The stochastics show positive divergence for the dip in the SPX price that helped create the recovery rally on Friday. Note that the other indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows in price on the daily basis even if a day or two of upside occurs.

The Aroon green line shows that only one-half of the bulls remain bullish on stocks on the daily basis. It is comical that the red line shows that 100% of the bears believe stocks will remain bullish and heading higher. That is funny and verifies the off the charts bullish euphoria that lingers in markets likely identifying a historic top.

The stock market is highly news driven these days due to King Donnie's daily carnival show. That Epstein saga continues so there must be some doggy dirt that will come out. Maybe Donnie, or his spoiled rich friends, that are now likely donors to the republicans and his causes, were diddlin' where they should not have been diddlin', like Diddy? Did he or didn't he? Diddy did. Diddle-diddle-do. Epstein was on Welcome Back Kotter. He had a phony note business since they were always skipping school. He would sign the bottom of each absence excuse note with 'Epstein's Mother'. That show was funny and where Travolta started to take off as an actor.

Anyhoo, if price continues lower on lousy news bites, watch the 100-day MA at 6526 as support. Price loves to bounce off the 100. The 6550 is strong price support (blue line) and the 100 is coming up to form a confluence with the price support. Perhaps the 6550-ish level will act as a magnet over the coming days and couple weeks. The daily chart is choppy sideways slop with a downward bias.

For the SPX weekly chart, the prior posts describe the top again with neggie d across all indicators (red lines), overbot conditions, rising wedge behavior, upper band violation and price extension above the moving average ribbon requiring a mean reversion lower. The initial neggie d spankdown occurs to kick of a multi-week pullback but the down move is stalled slightly due to the ongoing uber bullishness and stock market euphoria that provides false confidence to dip-buyers.

A multi-week down move is expected due to the neggie d. There is only about 6 weeks or so remaining in the year and the holidays are on tap with Thanksgiving coming fast. Stocks may continue to sell off through Thanksgiving and into December and then maybe conditions improve for the last couple weeks as Santa arrives. Tax-loss selling occurs in early December so that may be the crescendo for the multi-week downside move. Santa gave Keystone coal last year, and each prior year. Keystone checked the Christmas stocking hanging on the fireplace mantle last year but the sock had a hole in it.

The Aroon shows that nearly 100% of the bulls expect the stock market to go up forever on the weekly basis and the red line shows that 100% of the bears also believe stocks will go up on the weekly basis going forward. Pause for laughter. There is your dip-buyers, folks. Bulls may be a bit hesitant on the daily basis but you can see everyone and his brother bullish the stock market on the weekly basis. Well, all of you are going to have to be taught a lesson.

The middle band, that is the 20-wk MA, at 6531, is on the table as well as the lower band at 6166. Over the coming months and year or two, the SPX would be expected to venture down to the 200-wk MA at 4953 and lower. The SPX monthly chart will dictate and confirm THE top so you have to make sure that displays universal neggie d for all chart indicators to call THE top (it is either right now in real-time or a month or so forward; it should be historic; the monthly chart will provide the answer over the next couple weeks).

Keybot the Quant, Keystone's trading robot, remains long despite last week's negativity. The quant is tracking XLF 52.79 and UTIL (or DJU) 1113.47. Banks are below creating negativity in the stock market while utilities are above creating support for the stock market. The quant is champing at the bit to go short but needs to see SPX 6647 tomorrow, or, if UTIL turns negative, the quant may flip short immediately. It should be an exciting, and perhaps historic, week ahead.

Remember, as stocks begin falling apart, Don't Panic. The bulls are screaming, "Don't Drag Me Down." Your history books are full of lies. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant flips to the bull side after the opening bell at SPX 6805. The banks are what matters. The XLF 52.80 bull/bear line in the sand will tell you the direction of the stock market.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross Signals Bearish Stock Market Ahead; Textbook Island Reversal

"Houston, we have a problem." Ground control to Major Tom. What do we do Mission Control? Major Tom, put your head between your legs and kiss your arse goodbye. A key ST (short-term) and VST (very short-term) stock market signal fails today. The SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross dictates if stocks are in a near-term bull or bear market. The SPX falls below the 200 EMA at 6742 so a short-term bear market begins.

Price failed the 200 EMA, then came up for the back kiss, and was spanked back down, so it is all systems go for the down side (price did not have the strength to recover back above the 200). But tomorrow is another day and the bulls may eat some spinach for breakfast, like Popeye, and develop strength.

If not, and the SPX remains under 6742, the stock market is toast. Stick a fork in it because it is cooked.

The stock market was on vacation for the back half of October lounging on the island top. There is a palm tree on the island. Price gapped-up to begin forming the island, and then when it was time to leave the island, price fell back down through the same gap, a textbook island reversal pattern.

Simply watch the SPX tomorrow. If you choose to remains long stocks, you will be slightly relieved if the SPX recovers back above 6742, but if not, you will be clenching your buttock cheeks as the screens turn red and you lose money, and then you will be crying in your beerski on the weekend. Do you want to go to the Poor House or to the Love Shack? Tin roof! Rusted! Come on, jump in, we're headin' on down to the love shack. Stay away, fools. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:47 PM EST: S&P futures are up +22 that will set up a knock-down drag-out fight at 6742 tomorrow. It will determine who goes home crying. Crying by Roy. The only way you can sing that high is if you put the capo on your nuts (that's an old musician's joke).

Note Added Monday Morning, 11/10/25, at 11:49 AM EST: The bulls come to play today bolstered by a resolution to the US government shutdown. Stick-save. The 200 EMA on the SPX 60-minute is at 6740 and price gaps above after the opening bell. The S&P 500 is now at the 6776 palindrome above the key ST bull market signal at 6740. The drama will continue this week.

Note Added Sunday, 11/16/25: The SPX ends last week at 6734. The 200 EMA on the 60-minute is at 6756. Whoopsies, daisies. The drama continues. This is the epic sword fight on top of the castle walls, the bull and bear are balancing on the unstable stones battling away, trying to slash each other, but both know that one will lose. SPX 6756 will choose the winner and loser going forward.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Upper Band Violation; Excessive Euphoric Bullishness and Complacency

Goodnight Irene, Irene Goodnight, by Leadbelly. It has been a multi-week slog waiting for the historic top to finally arrive; it is the Godot Top. The SPX weekly chart officially tops out with negative divergence (red lines). That pesky MACD created the last month of buoyancy in equities and stubborn stocks that refuse to roll over. The MACD is now neggie d (price makes a matching or higher high but the chart indicator is sloping down).

The overbot conditions, rising wedge vibe, and upper band violation are bearish indicators. Price will want to seek the middle band, that is also the 20-wk MA at 6505, sloping sharply higher, and the lower band at the 6116 palindrome, sloping sharply higher, is also on the table. It is time for the multi-week pullback in stocks to begin.

The ADX pink boxes show the strong trend higher in early and mid-2024, that petered out, and then tried to reexert itself this springtime, but failed. Despite the all-time record highs in stocks (all-time high at 6920.34 on 10/29/25 and all-time closing high at 6890.89 on 10/28/25), the ADX is not impressed and no longer considers the stock market rally a strong trend higher.

The Aroon verifies the rampant euphoric bullishness and complacency in the stock market. Traders want to buy all dips and believe that stocks are at a permanently high plateau a la Irving Fisher in 1929. Everyone is drinking the King Donnie, Pope Powell and AI wine, but they do not know that it is sacrificial wine.

Plan accordingly for a few weeks of downside in stocks. The Keybot the Quant trading robot is on the short side currently but is tracking banks and copper as the main metrics impacting stock market direction. XLF, banks, are weaker so the bears are happy. The quant identifies a -0.4% loss in copper futures today as a serious failure that will lead to lower stocks. Copper is flatish so stocks are buoyant. Overnight, futures were higher and then when copper futures slumped to down -0.4% today, boom, futures dropped. Doctor Copper will tell you the story over the next couple days. If you are bullish and plan to hold longs, get on your knees and start praying for the red metal.

Keystone has described the topping drama over the last few weeks. There were many stick-saves by King Donnie and Pope Powell as well as pumps created by AI hype and inflation data. There will be more happy talk but most of this stagecraft has run its course. Maybe the Ukraine War would end or something great like that would send stocks higher but that does not appear on the horizon.

Keystone is holding index shorts that are flat or down currently and as mentioned the Keybot the Quant trading robot is short. The next couple days will be interesting. The full moon is big and beautiful very close to planet Earth this time around. There is a Bad Moon Risin'. The end is coming soon. Hope you got your things together. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday, 11/6/25: SPX 6720.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart; Ominous Signals if the Path Forward Continues

As everyone celebrates new all-time record highs for stocks, utilities slip on a banana peel and begin falling down the cellar stairs. Price is lower for 3 weeks now testing the 20-wk MA support at 11 hundo. Utes receive the neggie d spankdown on this weekly basis and there are three signals that require attention.

The old timer's watch the utilities because a downtrend in utes is a bad omen for the broad stock market from zero to 2 months out. Utilities are down for 3 weeks about one-half that distance. It does not have to be the full 2 months; the top in the stock market can happen any time. If utes lead the broad stock market lower, it is ominous because it typically tells you that the pullback will not be run of the mill instead it will be a significant bloody bludgeoning.

Keystone often mentions the two main signals to watch for utilities the closing price 15 weeks ago that determines if utes are in an uptrend or downtrend, and, the 50-wk MA now at 1049.

If utilities are in an uptrend, so is the broad stock market and everything is fantastic and rosy with the bulls making lots of money on the long side. Trouble begins when utilities roll over and begin a weekly downtrend. Looking back 15 weeks, the comparison number for this week is 1082.51 (blue circle). Price is now down to 1100 not that far away. The stock market will take a notable drop lower if the 1082 fails this week.

For next week, the close 15 weeks ago was 1107.90 (blue circle), so utes would be in a weekly downtrend failure right now forecasting bad stuff ahead. Watch it closely. You will know the story for the stock market for next week at 4 PM EST this Friday when this week ends and the final UTIL number is known. If below 1108 on Friday afternoon, there will be Hell to pay with stocks next week.

The 50-week MA is a trap-door for the stock market. If equities begin tracing lower and the 1082 and 1108 numbers have failed for this week and next, and price drops to test the 50-wk at 1049, and fails, it is lights out for the US stock market. The SPX will likely take a significant drop within minutes or a few hours of the 50-wk MA support failure and an overall significant stock market crash would also be on the table going forward. This is only 50 points away.

Keep following the 15-week lookback going forward to see if the wheels fall off the stock market cart. Recapping, the utes leading the broad stock market lower is a bad sign indicating serious downside damage ahead.

Watch to see if UTIL, or DJU, 1082 fails this week or 1108 next week, that will signal trouble ahead for stocks. Watch to see if the 50-wk MA at 1049 fails, if so, it is lights out for the stock market and a crash is on the table. Are you staying in your lane? "Stay In Your Lane," by Courtney Barnett. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Upward-Sloping Channel; Price Extended; Neggie D Spankdown Versus Happy Talk

The markets are non-stop drama these days another characteristic of a historic top in the offing. The SPX prints the all-time record high in history at 6920.34 on 10/29/25 and the all-time closing high is 6890.89 on 10/28/25. The stock market should be smelling like a rose but it is smelling like something else. The inflation data orgy from a week ago and China trade deal hype orgy creating the all-time highs were explained in the prior post.

The all-time record high occurs but Pope Powell decrees that another rate cut is not a foregone conclusion for 12/10/25. Stocks retreat because the easy money may be put on hold so the wealthy class in America will not be able to effortlessly increase their wealth with stock market gains (the Fed's easy money flows into the stock market enriching the wealthy class with effortless stock gains raping the US stock market for all it's worth; it is called crony capitalism filth). But the hump day rate decision and Powell presser action quickly yields to tech earnings after the closing bell that were a mixed bag for the stock market.

Sogginess occurs on Thursday as Trumpski tries to tell everyone he made a great deal with China but it looks like a whole lot of nothing. King Donnie bows before Dictator Xi begging for rare earth minerals. It looks like the orange head was not smart enough to know this would obviously happen if he pursued his tariff and trade war. Same with the problems with the US farmers; the same thing happened in his first term but the orange head did not learn anything. Repeating the same mistake is insanity/stupidity. The bulls cling to AMZN and AAPL earnings Thursday evening hoping for a savior and they get two that bounce stocks into the weekend.

The upper Band was violated so The Weight will drag price lower to the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA, at 6739, and the lower band at 6559 is also on the table. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (above the 20-day MA, above the 50-day, above the 100, above the 150 above the 200) and needs a mean reversion lower.

The 150-day MA is sloping higher signaling the ongoing cyclical bull market. Trouble is confirmed and will continue when the 150 flattens out and rolls over lower and that happens when price goes sub 6182.

The blue channel is firmly established from the April low to now with lots of touches on the top and bottom rails. Price touched the top with the euphoric all-time high so a move back to the lower rail at 6739-ish, the middle band-ish, is in order.

The red lines show the negative divergence Keystone has been talking about. It created the spankdown in October but the stick-saves came quick with happy Donnie tariff talk, happy inflation data, and anticipation of sugar plum rate cuts, to make the wealthy class more filthy rich, for as far as the eye can see. These are special times with special price action.

The red circles show 4 distribution days over the last 3 weeks the smart money, that appears on television daily telling you to buy, buy, buy, is selling their shares to the dumb money, you, and then tiptoeing out the back door before Joe Retail figures out that they bot and are holding a bag of sh*t in their hands.

The put/calls continue showing rampant complacency for an unprecedented amount of time further verifying the unique and historic market action. She should crack any day and a 200 to 800-point drop in the SPX, maybe a whole lot more, should occur in quick order. As this occurs, the path forward can be assessed with the weekly and monthly charts.

The SPX weekly and more importantly, the monthly chart will have new candlesticks on Monday. October was a perfect setup for the US stock market to print a historic crash day for the record books. Alas, it did not happen since the news and happy emotion about tariffs, trade, inflation data, rate cuts, AI hype, steady consumer spending, and consistent yearnings, overrules the technicals. However, the technicals always win and simply setup for the same top with the new information known.

The SPX monthly chart was in universal neggie d after September so the major top was likely. The MACD line was temperamental more flat than negative but neggie d nonetheless. After the happy hype in October creates more new price highs, the MACD and RSI have been refueled with a couple gallons of bull juice. As stated, the news is being priced-in so the monthly chart will set up again for the major top likely with a jog move (down-up). November would be a pullback in the stock market, then a rally in December when the MACD on the monthly, and all the other chart indicators, will be in neggie d again, so all happiness will abruptly end. Continue to expect a historic top for the record books to print at any time going forward. The 6920 may be all she wrote.

Keybot the Quant flipped short and remains on the bear side to begin the new week of trading. Retail stocks, banks, commodities and volatility are driving stock prices. Utilities will likely play a role in a couple weeks. Utilities are dropping for 3 weeks an ominous sign for the overall stock market because they will be leading lower.

The blue circle show the huge buying volume in mid-September at 6650-6700 so that is a logical place for price to first seek, and the 6650-6750 range is strong price support, the bottom rail of the channel and the middle band and 20-day MA. Price may want to slide into this area and then plot the next move forward.

Keystone holds index shorts that are underwater now and as mentioned, the Keybot the Quant robot is short. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today? Black Monday? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.