Bitcoin enthusiasts are tripping over each other each wanting to be the wise one that calls the bottom in their idol bitcoin. Investors step up announcing large block purchases, and 10 minutes later they are crying in their beer at the money they lost real fast. Catching a falling knife is tricky usually resulting in bloody hands. It is a mystery why people make asses out of themselves when all they have to do is wait for possie d on the charts so they can call the bottom and buy bitcoin with less risk.
The bitcoin daily chart (not shown) is setting up with positive divergence. It may chop for a day or few but should stage a relief rally on the daily basis. Bitcoin bulls will no doubt proclaim that the bottom is in so many will buy some bitcoin, only to get their head handed to them again since price wants to see lower lows, on the weekly basis, due to the weak and bleak chart indicators.
The top was textbook with the red rising wedge, a bearish pattern, overbot conditions during the summer, upper band violation, and price extension above the moving averages, and most importantly, neggie d. The negative divergence spankdown begins the same week the historic bitcoin all-time record top is printed at 126K+ in early October. Alas, 6 weeks later and it dropped to sub 90K for a heartbeat. If you are holding a lot of bitcoin, you have to check your shorts, because you just sh*t yourself. Business media says everyone that bot into the bitcoin and cybercurrency ETF's are now underwater.
Bitcoin receives the neggie d smackdown on the weekly basis, now 6 weeks along, and you can see why price stops here for a look-see (strong price support over the last year). A doji candlestick is in play for this week that means bulls and bears are battling and it is equal so far. Bitcoin stops on the key price support over the last year (blue line). Bitcoin must decide to bounce or die from this level.
The chart indicators remain weak and bleak wanting to see lower prices for bitcoin on the weekly basis going forward sans the RSI and oversold stochastics. Thus, the daily time frame wants to set up for a relief rally and that jives with the RSI and stoch's on the weekly chart above as well as the price that has fallen through the lower deviation band.
Thus, with an index finger pointed in the air, marrying the daily and weekly time frames, bitcoin will likely bottom on the daily basis this week and rally for a few days. But the weakness on the weekly chart will reexert itself and bitcoin will roll back over to the downside to satisfy the weekly basis and print new lower lows. Remember, trading is like playing 3D chess, only it is 5D and time is the variable not space (minutes, hours, days, weeks, months).
Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, it is the exciting life we live, if a nimble trader, you can give the rally on the daily basis a try for some quick money, and then ditch that long in a few days and go short again; very tricky trading with a volatile asset like bitcoin. Let's check the 2-hour. The bitcoin 2-hour chart created the bounce off the bottom; it is in universal possie d.
Keystone was shorting bitcoin over the last few months a pain in the butt due to the choppy sideways slop, but it worked out in the end and the trades are covered with nice profits. Keystone is not long or short bitcoin right now and does not plan on playing it in the very short-term (VST). King Donnie will likely see the money he lost and will make some kind of positive bitcoin announcement (that perpetuates the crony capitalism system) that will create a bottom in bitcoin, but it makes it difficult to trade since Donnie can save the day at any time.
Keystone will wait for the weekly chart above to set up with positive divergence and consider getting back in on the long side then. There is no point to trying to be a hero now. Wait for possie d so you know price is fueled-up and ready to run higher. Bitcoin likely needs another couple-three weeks to set up long on the weekly basis. Simply wait for the positive divergence to set up.
Bitcoin may recover for a week or two, then roll over again, but the indicators above may be possie d at that point, perhaps except for the MACD line, so call it 2 to 4 weeks. Again, no need for guessing. Simply watch the chart above and wait for it to set up with positive divergence to go long; conversely, just like going short due to the negative divergence shown above in red that was a winner.
Sure, bitcoin may take off like a rocket higher when King Donnie decrees that the regulators will lay out a red carpet for all bitcoin derivatives going forward or some other ridiculously happy news for cybercurrencies, but the weekly chart above does not make you want to be long. Give it a couple weeks and the landing zone in the 77K-85K may be the place to go long (if all indicators are set up with possie d on the weekly chart above).
Gold and bitcoin were the two darlings considered to be a store of wealth. Investors abandoned bitcoin since it exists somewhere in the ether on the smartphone, and prefer gold that you can hold in your hands. Gold remains elevated, but bitcoin took the pipe, but when stocks begin falling in earnest, gold will be sold off, too. Gold On the Ceiling. Hurry up! Time to get to the Bowery for the concert. It's gonna be a good one. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: Bitcoin drops to 86.5K. The broad stock market takes the pipe today.
Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: Bitcoin drops to 83.8K and teased the 80K level yesterday. King Donnie's DJT stock has lost -33% over the last 3 weeks due to the bitcoin collapse and DJT is down -70% this year. Oh my, lots of folks got fleeced in that stock. Let's take a look at the charts to see what is going on. If you bring up the bitcoin daily chart, you see price making the lower low and so is the RSI, MACD and money flow; they are weak and bleak wanting to see lower lows on the daily basis. The overbot RSI, stochastics, and money flow are agreeable to a bullish bounce. Ditto positive divergence for the stochastics and histogram. It is a mixed bag and likely needs 1 to 3 days to set up with possie d to place the bottom and begin a relief rally on the daily basis. The bottom can happen immediately if King Donnie proclaims something great about bitcoin and cybercurrency. The weak and bleak RSI, MACD and money flow values are way down in the cellar so they have nowhere to go but up. A jog move may be all it needs up on Sunday or Monday then down again on Sunday or Monday to place the bottom on the daily basis. You do not have to guess; simply call the bottom when all the indicators are possie d. It will likely be this week but it is tricky since it is the Thanksgiving holiday week. The weekly chart is a waterfall. If you bot at 120K +, perhaps at the 126K top, you are soiling yourself looking at that chart. Price makes a new low on the weekly basis and the RSI, MACD, histogram, stochastics and money flow are all weak and bleak. Bitcoin will set up and bounce on the daily basis but then in a week or so will roll back over to the downside since the weekly chart still wants to go down substantively. It may simply keep biting the dust until the weekly chart goes possie d. It is likely smart to wait for the possie d to form for all the indicators on the weekly chart before buying bitcoin long again and that is likely 2 to 4 weeks away. Do not guess, simply watch the chart.
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