SPX S&P 500 Monthly Chart; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence-Almost; Upper Band Violation; Price Extended

Is everyone having fun with the couple months of choppy slop? Chop suey. Bulls and bears get chewed up in choppiness since they juke when they should have jived. Sometimes an investment portfolio can be like a bar of soap; the more you handle it (making too many trades), the smaller it gets.

The couple-month blow-off top behavior continues as the Wall Street analysts continue telling everyone to buy the dip and SPX 7K and higher is around the corner. Well, it may have got up and walked away since price now has a 6.6K handle. The stock market top has been previously explained with the neggie d on the short-term daily and intermediate-term weekly charts. It is time to take a look at the SPX monthly chart to do some long-term fortune-telling.

The gypsies do a lot of fortune-telling. At the gypsy campfire, the bulls are opining about the all-time S&P 500 record high at 6920 on 10/29/25 and all-time closing high at 6891 on 10/28/25; last month. It was a Halloween treat unlike Keystone's pillowcase that only had rocks. The gypsies sing, "Those Were the Days" my friend, we thought they'd never end. 40 gypsies gather outside a convenience store. The leader Alexi tells Radu, Stefan and Zina to keep the clerk busy while the other gypsies rob the store blind. Alexi tells Zina to drop her frilly white blouse a couple inches to show more cleavage. Let us then meet at the Gypsy Caravan and campfire later where we will dance, and sing! It is the gypsy way! It is the gypsy life! It is the life we choose! Sing! Dance!

Anyhoo, the SPX monthly chart is topping-out with neggie d (red lines) that has serious negative ramifications for the stock market, and economy, going forward for the coming months, and perhaps several years. There is one fly in the bear's soup, however. Keystone was served in a restaurant years ago and there was a half-dead fly swimming in his soup. Keystone asked the waiter, "What is this fly doing in my soup!?" The waiter said, "The backstroke."

All the chart indicators are negatively diverged wanting to see a major spankdown in stocks on the monthly basis except for the blue circle showing the temperamental MACD line. The close-up of the monthly candles are provided in the other chart and you can see that the MACD line is flatter than a newlywed's souffle, as Art Cashin would say. The top is only in if the MACD line is flat or sloping lower (negative divergence, neggie d, occurs when price is printing matching and higher highs but the chart indicators are sloping down showing that they are out of gas and can no longer take price higher).

In a couple weeks, the answer will be known if this is THE stock market top now, in real-time, or if it will be delayed one or two more months. Right now, you have to give it to the bears since the other chart indicators are clearly neggie d and the MACD is up in nosebleed territory with nowhere to go but down. Nonetheless, watch it closely over the coming days.

There are 8 trading days remaining in November and the Thanksgiving holiday is next week. The November candlestick will be cast in concrete at 4 PM EST on 11/28/25. If price continues to drop, it will drag the MACD line lower and more easily confirm that the MACD line is in neggie d and the top is locked-in. The first couple days of December will be key since a new monthly candlestick will begin providing information to verify the top, or not. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to parties, in two weeks you will be able to forecast the top and pending long-term takedown of the US stock market.

The ADX pink box shows that the last strong trend for the SPX, on a monthly basis, was back in 2018  seven years ago. All those record highs since then and the ADX has never considered the upside price action to be a strong trend. That is interesting. Keystone considers the May 2015 top the last legitimate top for the stock market. Everything since then is excessive monetary (Fed money-printing) and fiscal (Congress handing out checks and free money, for example, during the COVID-19 pandemic) stimulus that has made the wealthy filthy rich effortlessly (the easy money flows into the stock market boosting prices and the wealthy privileged class own the majority of the stock market; it is called crony capitalism filth). Just think, in 2 or 3 years, we will likely be down at SPX 2K-3K.

Price violates the upper standard deviation band so the middle band, that is also the 20-mth MA, at 5930, is on the table. The 10-mth MA at 6225 is a fave among the old-timer's since it is an early warning signal that the stock market is in serious trouble. If price then loses the 12-mth MA at 6181, it is lights-out for the stock market that may go into a crash profile. So there is lots of fun ahead.

The SPX is also extended above the moving average ribbon (price is above the 10 above the 12 above the 20 above the 50 above the 100 above the 200) so a mean reversion lower is desperately needed. The overbot RSI and stochastics are also agreeable to a pullback in equities. The red rising wedge also creates and reinforces the bearish vibe.

The chart is a POS, folks, and remember, it represents a longer-term basis. The SPX is lying on the gurney receiving Last rites. The blue circle will tell us over the next couple weeks if the patient dies, or, if a morphine drip can keep the zombie alive for another month. Plan accordingly. "It's the End of the World," but I feel fine. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.

Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.