The markets are non-stop drama these days another characteristic of a historic top in the offing. The SPX prints the all-time record high in history at 6920.34 on 10/29/25 and the all-time closing high is 6890.89 on 10/28/25. The stock market should be smelling like a rose but it is smelling like something else. The inflation data orgy from a week ago and China trade deal hype orgy creating the all-time highs were explained in the prior post.
The all-time record high occurs but Pope Powell decrees that another rate cut is not a foregone conclusion for 12/10/25. Stocks retreat because the easy money may be put on hold so the wealthy class in America will not be able to effortlessly increase their wealth with stock market gains (the Fed's easy money flows into the stock market enriching the wealthy class with effortless stock gains raping the US stock market for all it's worth; it is called crony capitalism filth). But the hump day rate decision and Powell presser action quickly yields to tech earnings after the closing bell that were a mixed bag for the stock market.
Sogginess occurs on Thursday as Trumpski tries to tell everyone he made a great deal with China but it looks like a whole lot of nothing. King Donnie bows before Dictator Xi begging for rare earth minerals. It looks like the orange head was not smart enough to know this would obviously happen if he pursued his tariff and trade war. Same with the problems with the US farmers; the same thing happened in his first term but the orange head did not learn anything. Repeating the same mistake is insanity/stupidity. The bulls cling to AMZN and AAPL earnings Thursday evening hoping for a savior and they get two that bounce stocks into the weekend.
The upper Band was violated so The Weight will drag price lower to the middle band, that is also the 20-day MA, at 6739, and the lower band at 6559 is also on the table. Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (above the 20-day MA, above the 50-day, above the 100, above the 150 above the 200) and needs a mean reversion lower.
The 150-day MA is sloping higher signaling the ongoing cyclical bull market. Trouble is confirmed and will continue when the 150 flattens out and rolls over lower and that happens when price goes sub 6182.
The blue channel is firmly established from the April low to now with lots of touches on the top and bottom rails. Price touched the top with the euphoric all-time high so a move back to the lower rail at 6739-ish, the middle band-ish, is in order.
The red lines show the negative divergence Keystone has been talking about. It created the spankdown in October but the stick-saves came quick with happy Donnie tariff talk, happy inflation data, and anticipation of sugar plum rate cuts, to make the wealthy class more filthy rich, for as far as the eye can see. These are special times with special price action.
The red circles show 4 distribution days over the last 3 weeks the smart money, that appears on television daily telling you to buy, buy, buy, is selling their shares to the dumb money, you, and then tiptoeing out the back door before Joe Retail figures out that they bot and are holding a bag of sh*t in their hands.
The put/calls continue showing rampant complacency for an unprecedented amount of time further verifying the unique and historic market action. She should crack any day and a 200 to 800-point drop in the SPX, maybe a whole lot more, should occur in quick order. As this occurs, the path forward can be assessed with the weekly and monthly charts.
The SPX weekly and more importantly, the monthly chart will have new candlesticks on Monday. October was a perfect setup for the US stock market to print a historic crash day for the record books. Alas, it did not happen since the news and happy emotion about tariffs, trade, inflation data, rate cuts, AI hype, steady consumer spending, and consistent yearnings, overrules the technicals. However, the technicals always win and simply setup for the same top with the new information known.
The SPX monthly chart was in universal neggie d after September so the major top was likely. The MACD line was temperamental more flat than negative but neggie d nonetheless. After the happy hype in October creates more new price highs, the MACD and RSI have been refueled with a couple gallons of bull juice. As stated, the news is being priced-in so the monthly chart will set up again for the major top likely with a jog move (down-up). November would be a pullback in the stock market, then a rally in December when the MACD on the monthly, and all the other chart indicators, will be in neggie d again, so all happiness will abruptly end. Continue to expect a historic top for the record books to print at any time going forward. The 6920 may be all she wrote.
Keybot the Quant flipped short and remains on the bear side to begin the new week of trading. Retail stocks, banks, commodities and volatility are driving stock prices. Utilities will likely play a role in a couple weeks. Utilities are dropping for 3 weeks an ominous sign for the overall stock market because they will be leading lower.
The blue circle show the huge buying volume in mid-September at 6650-6700 so that is a logical place for price to first seek, and the 6650-6750 range is strong price support, the bottom rail of the channel and the middle band and 20-day MA. Price may want to slide into this area and then plot the next move forward.
Keystone holds index shorts that are underwater now and as mentioned, the Keybot the Quant robot is short. Winners and Losers. Which one will you be today? Black Monday? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Thursday Evening, 11/20/25: The broad stock market sells off for a few days and takes the pipe today with the SPX dropping down to 6538.
Note Added Saturday, 11/22/25: The SPX drops to 6521 intraday Friday and then ends the week at 6603.
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