The Keystone Speculator's Inflation-Deflation Indicator; US REMAINS MIRED IN NEUTRAL STATUS QUO, NOT INFLATIONARY, AND NOT DISINFLATIONARY, FOR 3 YEARS

Keystone's inflation-deflation indicator remains in NEUTRAL territory, not inflationary, and not disinflationary. Inflation is choppy sideways for 3 years with the Federal Reserve not making any progress lower to their 2% goal (do not confuse Keystone's non-dimensional indicator above with the actual inflation percentages).

Inflation is neutral according to Keystone's indicator and moving sideways but to correlate it to the Federal Reserve, from the Fed's perspective, inflation is moving sideways above the Fed's 2% target.

The chart above mainly reflects goods inflation rather than services inflation. For decades this did not matter since both moved in unison. In recent years, however, due to obscene central banker money printing that has made the wealthy rich beyond their wildest dreams, and the disruptions of supply lines due to the pandemic, the goods and services inflations have not been in sync.

The expectation would be for services inflation to roll over and come down to join goods inflation and after many months, the data is starting to hint at this outcome. The last four readings of services inflation show three of the months in a downtrend. After all, even when you have dough, how many trips to Europe, and how many $100K Mercedes convertibles, and how many $25K refrigerators do you need?

The oil, coal and natural gas industries are the energy backbone of the United States. President Biden's war on America's energy complex in favor of the glorified gold cart (EV) economy, along with the out of control Congressional spending (fiscal stimulus), and the Fed's money-printing (monetary stimulus), and the Ukraine War, and the ongoing supply disruptions from the pandemic aftermath, create the runaway inflation in 2022.

The 10-year Treasury note 'price' is used for the denominator (bottom number) of The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator. The 10-year Treasury price is 103.09 with a yield at 4.24% on 4/26/25.

Commodities are in the numerator (top number). The CRB Commodity Index is at 298.46.

CRB/10-Year Price = 298.46/103.09 = 2.895

Above 4.20 = Hyperinflation

Between 3.1 and 4.2 = Inflation

Between 2.5 and 3.1 = Neutral; Inflationists and Deflationists Battle

Between 2.1 and 2.5 = Disinflation

Below 2.1 = Deflation

Interestingly, the indicator is at 2.90 signaling neither inflation or disinflation. The Fed is targeting a 2% inflation rate (not to be confused with the indicator number) and since the indicator above is moving choppy sideways for the last 2 years, inflation can be assumed to be moving sideways above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Keystone's indicator is in a neutral sideways posture but this is viewed as too high inflation from the Fed's perspective, and the public's when they go to the grocery store.

Granted, the calculation above is focused more on goods inflation rather than services inflation. For many decades, you could track commodities, with the CRB, or GTX, and the goods inflation and deflation dictated the overall economy's direction. As the US politicians screwed America over the last five decades, sending jobs overseas and destroying the middle class so stock prices could move higher on the foreign slave labor, the goods production went to foreign nations while the US focused more on services as the major part of the economy.

The debate between inflationists and deflationists over the last few years has been the discussion of goods versus services inflation. The pundits looking for inflation said goods would inflate and catch-up to the rising services sector while the talking heads preaching deflation said the services inflation would drop to join the goods disinflation and deflation as the economy slumps. All bets were off and both sides ended up being correct as the COVID-19 pandemic hit knocking the world on its arse.

The deflationists were correct in 2019 and 2020. Services inflation drops to become more compatible with the goods deflation. Of course, the China Virus pandemic wiped out the airlines, hotels, travel, restaurants and hospitality and leisure industries. Services are knee-capped falling to the ground joining the goods deflation. Men turned into bush people letting their hair grow wildly outward as they avoided the barber for fear of catching covid.

Then the central banker cavalry arrives March 2020 promising to print money forever. Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen (former Fed chairs) were already in the basement of the Eccles Building running the printing presses like mad. Helicopter Ben loaded-up his chopper with freshly printed Benjamin's dropping the money from the sky into the investment banker's hands on Wall Street.

President Biden, along with Congress, provided way too much stimulus during the pandemic creating a lazy workforce that would rather sit home than work. The staffing shortages were a headache for employers that wanted to get back to normal during 2022 to 2024. Wages rise sending inflation higher. These behaviors, and the obscene amounts of Congressional (fiscal) and Federal Reserve (monetary) stimulus, send inflation to the moon.

When the Fed and Congress tag-teamed in March and April 2020 with trillions in stimulus, billions went into the US stock market pumping it to record highs. A few hundred thousand workers left the workforce either retiring or caring for loved ones after the pandemic, creating a massive labor shortage as the pent-up demand hit in 2021 and 2022.

Rising wages create inflation. The lack of inflation and ongoing persistent deflation for many years was due to the stagnant wage growth. Inflation cannot exist without wage inflation which had not occurred for many years until 2021 and 2022. In 2025, wages are moderating which will keep inflation at bay.

The inflation in recent years is mainly due to energy, food, insurance, and rent/utility costs. People notice higher gasoline and food prices more than other price changes. The wealthy class, made super rich by the Fed's money-printing over the last couple decades, continue to spend money which staves-off an overall recession in America, for now. There are signs that the wealthy are beginning to cut back on their spending.

Inflation in 2022 ran higher to try and match the 2011 highs. Back then, traders were convinced that rates would continue higher but instead the peak was in. Time will tell if the inflation peak in May/June 2022 will hold; so far it has 3 years later and the poke higher to begin 2025 petered out with the indicator falling back into neutral territory.

The answer to the inflation-deflation debate is both sides are right and both are wrong since the indicator sits at neutral. The path to disinflation is more likely if the economy sours. People would lose jobs and the stock market would drop but only until the Fed steps in with easy money by lowering rates and then equities will rally. The people propping up the economy right now are the upper middle class and wealthy because the Fed's easy money made them rich beyond their wildest expectations driving stock prices to the moon (at the expense of the rest of society).

Since services inflation is moderating flat to down, the goods inflation will take on more responsibility for the path forward of overall inflation. The CRB Index ran higher after Trump's election ushering in more inflation and then topped-out in February and fell back down providing recent data showing a slight moderation to inflation. If the Trump Trade and Tariff War was not occurring, the case could be made for a continued sideways move with inflation but would that really be so bad? No.

However, there is a big orange head sitting on the living room sofa. If King Donnie creates crazy inflation due to his tariff games, goods inflation may run strongly higher sending inflation strongly higher. 

There is good news and bad news for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell. The bad news is that the Fed is making zero progress for 3 years at lowering inflation to their 2% goal. Oh no, well, what is the good news? The good news is that inflation is not trending higher either for the last 3 years. Inflation is choppy sideways for over 3 years with the boil now coming off the services inflation numbers (even the rich are running out of money they want to spend). Inflation is stuck in a sideways pattern above the Fed's target.

The Keystone Speculator's Unemployment Rate Indicator -- US LABOR RECESSION STARTED 9/8/23 NOW 19 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 19 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING; OVER 1-1/2 YEARS!!

The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession in addition to the labor recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot (it is nowhere in sight). The Godot Recession (the recession that never arrives) occurs because consumer spending by the wealthy Americans, that benefited from the 15 years of Fed money-printing, remains robust and the AI hype and excitement also delayed the overall US recession. This link takes you to the prior labor recession article.

How can this be? For many decades, if America is in a labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, than it is guaranteed to be in an overall US economic recession. Not anymore, buckaroo. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and that sector has gone great guns higher. Further, the AI hype sends stocks to the moon. The easy money provided by the Fed and Congress during the COVID-19 pandemic creates inflation and jobs galore. People cannot spend the free money fast enough, like pigs feeding at the trough next to the barn out back. Employers begged for workers during 2022-2024 but not so much anymore.

Companies and businesses now admit that they know who they plan on sh*t-canning (layoffs) but are holding off a bit longer to see how the Donnie Trump Trade and Tariff War unfolds, or unravels. There are tens of thousands of stupid employees right now across America that do not know their job hangs in the balance and depends on King Donnie.

Trump buckled and backpedaled on his tariff threats to prevent the stock market from falling further and more importantly, foreigners were losing confidence in the all-mighty US dollar and treasuries. The orange head proclaimed a 90-day period for tariff talks, that consist mainly of Donnie talking to himself, that places a deadline drop-dead date at 7/8/25 (another 76 days or 11 weeks). If you do not have much to do at work, and are charging hours to overhead on your timesheet, you are toast and better start praying that the economy improves pronto, otherwise, your arse is grass. You will be first to be called into the office on a Monday morning and told to pack your stuff up and get the Hell out.

The stage is set for the Friday, 5/2/25, US Monthly Jobs Report. Federal Reserve presidents and members are already wiping beads of sweats from their greasy foreheads. The unemployment rate is for all the marbles.

In the last Fed meeting, Chairman Powell could not have been clearer if you focused on his words. The Fed will not act to lower interest rates unless the US unemployment rate moves above 4.4%. Keystone says the quiet part out loud. Powell's focus on the unemployment rate is obvious and yet journalists did not zero-in on this fact. The Federal Reserve is more concerned about the unemployment rate jumping higher, and are likely concerned about when rather than if it will occur. They are less concerned about inflation that is hyped in the daily news. The services inflation is soggy again, 3 out of the last 4 months. Of course the unknown wild card is King Donnie Trump and his tariff drama that may create a COVID-19 pandemic inflation redux.

The Fed is likely less concerned about inflation on the margins and more concerned about growth and jobs thinking that the 4.4% and higher rate is the trigger-point. With all this in mind, perhaps we can make projections on what may occur on 5/2/25.

The current unemployment rate is 4.2%. It hit 4.3% that matched highs not seen since December 2021. The rate has come down twice to back kiss the red line only to shoot higher again adding credibility to the scenario where the unemployment rate should continue higher. A move to or above 4.3% would be important since it is taking out those highs from 2021.

If the unemployment rate pops to 4.4% or higher, a big jump from the current 4.2%, bells, horns and whistles begin sounding at the Eccles Building. The Fed will be open to rate cuts going forward to help the economy so King Donnie will be happy for the bad news. The Fed does not want to see 4.4% or higher because consumers will worry bigtime about their jobs, the economy, and their future, and immediately put a halt to spending bringing on a US recession. The economy is not the stock market, however. The bad news of a 4.4% unemployment rate means rate cuts and more easy money to goose the US stock market higher and make the rich richer. Stocks will probably rally nicely going forward on news that the Fed's printing presses will begin providing easy money again. Isn't the crony capitalism system a sick piece of filth? Capitalism does not exist.

If the unemployment rate rises to 4.3% from the current 4.2%, the worry and angst would be similar to the previous paragraph but slightly less so. Rate cuts will be more likely going forward but everyone will want to see more data that means the 6/6/25 Jobs Report becomes key. The stock market will likely remain choppy flat with an upside buoyancy.

If the unemployment rate remains flat at 4.2%, status quo, it would give everyone a reason to think status quo, and go back to focusing on King Donnie and his latest trade and tariff antics. Stocks will move according to the Whitehouse soundbites.

If the unemployment rate drops to 4.1% from the current 4.2%, that means the economy is hanging in there better than thought. The funny thing is that everybody and his bro are buying everything off the shelves for fear that the tariffs will raise prices. Inventory stockers, clerks, and other employees are needed to push the products out the door right now and for another couple weeks, but then what when the shelves are empty and everyone's pantry is stocked with canned goods, water and toilet paper? Those workers will not be needed. The case for lowering rates will take on less importance but King Donnie will probably throw another hissy fit about rates. Stocks will likely be soggy since the rate cuts are not coming soon.

If the unemployment rate drops to 4.0%, the labor recession will end. Of course, another month or two of data would be needed to confirm, but 5/2/25 would mark the beginning of a US labor recovery.

Choose your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it. Technically, the rate breaks out higher and performed two back tests already hinting that she wants to run higher (4.3%, 4.4% and higher). 

With the US Monthly Jobs Report only four trading days away, the consensus is for 130K jobs and a steady unemployment rate of 4.2%. The prior month was 228K jobs and a 4.2% rate.

Watch the unemployment rate; it is what matters to the Fed and should be what matters to you. The stage is set. The jobs circus is back in town this week. If you listen real close, you can hear the calliope music. The crony capitalism system has become a caricature of itself.

Note Added 5/7/25, at 9:06 AM EST: The 4.2% unemployment rate scenario played out on Friday, 5/2/25, with a jobs number beat at 177K. Everyone and his bro were throwing confetti celebrating the 177K jobs. Why? That headline number is unreliable. The rate matters since Chairman Powell is following the rate. Stocks rallied on the release but surprisingly, the 2-year yield jumped about a dozen basis points. The behavior reflects the optimism on the 177K jobs number, go figure, so stocks are bot and notes and bonds are sold off, some of that money flowing into equities. The group think dictates the market action but people should be concerned that the unemployment rate is 4.2%, sticky, and likely going to continue higher (recession on the come). The same set-up is at play for the 6/6/25 jobs report. A 4.0% rate and lower (unlikely) will signal the all-clear and end of the labor recession. A rate of 4.1% or 4.2% signal ongoing labor angst. A rate popping to 4.3% and higher means the wheels are falling off the economy and the Fed will be more open to talking about rate cuts (sending stocks higher on easy money) instead of worrying about inflation brought on by the self-inflicted Trump Trade and Tariff War baby games.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES HOUSING RECESSION IS ONGOING FOR 28 MONTHS AND COUNTING

The US is in a housing recession for 28 months (2 years and 4 months). The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signaled the US housing recession starting 12/20/22 with no end in sight yet. Some homeowners turn into home moaners. People do not want to leave their current home, that has a low mortgage rate, for a new home with a bigger monthly payment. The lower availability of homes on the market hurts the first-time homebuyers.

The housing recession does not end until the red line moves above the green line. Here is the previous housing recession chart as this series continues until a housing recovery begins and rumor has it that the recovery is partying with Godot two towns over.

How could the United States not be in an overall recession when there is an ongoing housing recession for over 2 years, a labor recession for 1-1/2 years, and a 2-year manufacturing recession/slump? In past decades, that trio of pain would guarantee an overall US economic recession and yet it remains missing and nowhere in sight.

The Godot Recession has not yet arrived despite the weakness in housing, manufacturing and labor. The Federal Reserve provided monetary stimulus and the Congress provided fiscal stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic that created the 3-year housing recovery. The sales agreements were being signed faster than divorce papers. It was one big party. The banksters were partying giving away houses like candy. Now they are in the county jail, with everyone in the cell block, dancing and singing to Jailhouse Rock.

The party ends on 12/20/22 as the housing recession begins. Time will tell if Godot arrives bringing the overall US recession. King Donnie is doing his best to become the modern-day Herbert Hoover (Great Depression redux) destroying the economy and markets and bringing on that US recession. If consumer spending continues slipping away, you will say hello to the Godot Recession and the ongoing housing, labor and manufacturing recessions will say they told you so.

DDD 3D Systems Daily Chart; Positive Divergence

DDD has been taken to the shed out back behind the garage and beaten severely. The marketplace said we don't need no steenkin' 3D offerings. The daily and weekly charts are set up or setting up with positive divergence so Keystone takes a flyer on DDD to see if it pops. Keep a tight leash on it. SSYS was always the favorite child in the 3D space.

BOXL is another ticker Keystone bot a flyer on just as a quickie trade, or, if it goes south, a quick loss. It is set up with possie d but it appears they diluted the stock earlier this month.

CLB is set up with possie d ditto PATH so that is an oil play and AI play for quickie longs to see if they pop.

WY and GNRC should be on your long list as potential plays. CUT and WOOD popped so maybe folks are getting ready for hurricane season. Keystone is not in these right now.

Keystone has been playing in and out of RIOT and TDOC making dough. Not in them now.

Traders ae buying PLL going gaga over batteries. Good luck to them. PLL is already bouncing off the possie d. NKE is set up to run higher, pun intended. Just Do It. Cybersecurity stocks look like they may have a bit more upside ahead but Keystone is not in any of these plays.

PFE and MRNA are ridden hard and put away wet; left for dead. Both are set up with possie d suggesting that the worst is over for these two Big Pharma pandemic darlings.

Looking at a lot of charts, it is a garbage market. The stock market is set up to be weak going forward for months and likely a few years but the short-term may still have some choppy upside juice depending on King Donnie's Trade and Tariff War.

Keep the above potential longs on a tight leash. Everything looks lousy on the long side except for all the tickers mentioned above. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 60 Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Short-Term Bull Market Would Be Confirmed at SPX 5448 and Higher; Potential Island Reversal Pattern

All of you know by now that one of Keystone's fave short-term market indicators is the SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross. The chart shows the sick month of April with price way below the 200 EMA and the short-term bear market flourishing. Until today when the bulls are threatening a breakout.

From late Tuesday into this hump day morning, the SPX tests the 200 EMA resistance at 5448 threatening to breakout with upside joy, but instead it is spanked lower from the Tweezer Top. Price ends the day at 5376 and a test of the critical 200 EMA will likely be followed by another that is for all the marbles.

If the SPX rallies and moves above 5448, remaining above and trending higher, the sky is the limit for the bulls as they toss confetti in the air and schedule the dancing girls for the party.

If the SPX remains below the critical 200 EMA at 5448, or if price rallies up for another back kiss of the moving average and fails receiving another spankdown, it is over for the stock market. Bad things will begin to happen. The entire road forward for bulls depends on SPX 5448. Bulls got buptkis and will choke going forward if they cannot get above 5448.

Note the firm price resistance on the chart at 5448-5480. Bigtime. The whole month of April there are touches of this range with smackdowns following. It is interesting that the critical 200 EMA lines up with the important price resistance for the entire month. This confluence gives 5448 even more street cred.

Also, watch for a potential island reversal pattern. All the price action below 5448 sits on an island by itself because of the gap-down on 4/3/25. If price floats higher to 5448-ish, and then in the blink of an eye catapults up to the 5570-ish level, a 100-point gap-up move, that would be an island reversal. Otherwise, if stocks rally, price will simply float higher and fill that big gap from 4/3/25.

The fate of the US stock market rests on the bounce or die move from SPX 5448; it is for all the marbles going forward. Comically, it probably depends on what King Donnie will tweet overnight.

Banks and retail stocks jumped into the bull camp today to push the indexes strongly higher but then both must not have liked the food since they went back to the bear camp that created the pall in the stock market as the day played out. Not good for bulls. Watch retail stocks (XRT) and banksters (XLF) tomorrow.

Will tomorrow see SPX 5448 and announce that the "Chariots A Comin', Good News," or will the orange one stick his foot in his mouth and bring on more "Bad Luck?" Most high school music classes would sing "Chariots" in the 1970's. Modern schools probably do not even have music classes anymore. The Boss and Mike are lighting-up the amplifiers. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/24/25, at 6:42 PM EST: Bring Nancy and the dancing girls in so the party can begin. The SPX explodes over one hundo points higher to 5484 overcoming the 200 EMA at 5448 that now becomes support. The banks carry the day. Bulls and bears battled from 10:30 AM EST to a little past noon time crossing above, then below, then above, the 5448 line in the sand many times. At 12:15 PM EST, boom, the SPX shot skyward. A back kiss of 5448 would be in order since it is a key level where the bears would have one last chance to pull the SPX back under water. If you bring up the 60-minute chart, you can see the higher high in price but it comes with all the chart indicators neggie d. She's cooked in the hourly time frame which opens the door to the back test of 5448. If you bring up the 2-hour chart, price prints the higher high, and with this chart the indicators remain long and strong wanting a couple more jog moves before topping-out (late Friday or Monday). Thus, there is likely some chop ahead at these levels, and sideways price action with an upward bias. The daily chart remains strong wanting some more higher highs in price on the daily basis. The weekly chart never printed a clean bottom since the MACD remained weak and bleak. The SPX monthly chart is a disaster remaining weak and bleak. All the jackasses are calling bottoms in the stock market. Look at the monthly chart, idiots. It is ugly and has not even begun to impose its long-term wrath on the stock market yet. Stocks are likely going to be weak for a couple years or more going forward. Just think, the SPX may drop down to the May 2015 numbers at SPX 2150 since that was the last legitimate top in the stock market. The stock market remains in the cyclical bear market with the SPX a couple hundo points below the 12-mth MA at 5700 and the NYA is 400 and more points below the 40-wk MA at 19333. Comically, traders are going long afraid of missing out on the relief rally but at the same time are buying puts for protection. That is like having your foot on the gas and the brake at the same time. Look for the back test of 5448 and the bounce or die decision. Bulls are set up to be happy for a couple or few more days although the upside is likely limited from here. Price is where it may gap-up for the island reversal pattern. The stock market moves on King Donnie's decrees. The stock market party has started. Caligula will be here in 10 minutes; he is picking up the Fed wine and Trump champagne that keeps the party going. Pope Powell will provide interest rate cuts that send stocks higher and each day the orange head backpedals from another misguided tariff decree that sends stocks higher. Irene and the Solid Gold Dancers will get your blood flowing. Beautiful Irene was first-rate, an unbelievable talent, and always classy; perfect. Traders await the next Donnie tweet.

Keybot the Quant Turns Bullish

Keystone's proprietary trading robot, Keybot the Quant, flips to the bull side today before munchtime at $SPX 5254. Utilities and copper are creating all the upside joy in stocks with everything else in the toilet. Bulls need banks and commodities to rally if they want the stock market relief rally to continue.

Keybot the Quant

SPX S&P 500 Weekly Chart; Fibonacci Retracements for the October 2022 to February 2025 Rally; Bounce or Die Test at the 38% Fib at 5126

The SPX is under big pressure today receiving a merciless beating down 125 points, -2.4%, to 5158. That is a smackdown. It leaves a mark. Price comes down for a critical test at 5126.

SPX 5126 is the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the big rally from October 2022 to the 2/19/25 top.

If price remains above 5126, a relief rally will develop and stocks will recover from the 2 months of selling pressure. If SPX fails at 5126, there is Hell to pay with price then seeking the 4500-4800 landing zone. It would be a Pressure Drop as Toots and the Maytals sing. I say a pressure drop, oh pressure drop, oh pressure gonna drop on you. There was only one Toots now in Reggae Heaven.

Choose your poison. Everybody has a Poison Heart. Making friends, with a homeless, torn-up man. If long the US stock market, do you feel lucky that SPX 5126 will hold? Well, do you punk? Do you, punk? This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 4/22/25, at 8:42 PM EST: King Donnie backpedals on the besmirchment of Fed Chairman Powell and says he will not fire him. The orange-headed idiot realized he was making a fool of himself, negotiating with himself, while sending the stock market to Hell. The SPX bounces off the 38% Fib and begins a relief rally with S&P futures up +80 points continuing the party.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart

The US stock indexes take the pipe today because of China's plans to retaliate more against King Donnie's tariffs and Trump's harassment of Federal Reserve Chairman Powell trying to force him to cut rates. The Trump Trade and Tariff War is creating inflation but at the same time the orange head is bullying Federal Reserve Chairman Powell trying to get him to cut rates. If there is not a proper handle on inflation, and the Fed would cut rates, inflation could skyrocket out of control a la the pandemic. The Trumpflation due to tariffs would accelerate.

If King Donnie, donning his paper crown he got with his Burger King children's meal, tries to fire Powell, it would be a major crisis and the stock market would crash. Surely, the orange head is not that dumb, or is he? Donnie sets fire to the neighbors house and then blames the fire department for not getting there fast enough to put the fire out. The orange head would proclaim that if the fire department did their job, the house would not have turned into a cinder, but he is the one that started the fire. It makes you laugh. The whole pile of trade and tariff garbage is more crony capitalism filth imploding in real-time.

The major indexes collapsed today into a mini-crash because of the above news-wise, and because of the utilities technical-wise. UTIL plummets more than -2% today to 999.16 losing the critical 50-wk MA at 999.56. This is not good and it creates a pall on the stock market. Thus, the mood can change back to Happy Days if UTIL moves back above 999.56 tomorrow morning.

Stock market sogginess continues if UTIL remains below 999.56. The stock market goes into a crash profile if 972.25 is lost. A trap-door is opened if 972.25 is lost this week and it opens the door to Hell. Even more interesting is that the 972 number is meaningless after Friday at 4 PM EST because it is replaced with 1013 for the following 2 weeks. Thus, if your mind can stay with Keystone, as of next week, the trap-door will be the 999.56. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the fun parties, watch to see if the week ends with UTIL below 972, if so, It's All Over, Baby Blue. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 4/22/25, at 8:42 PM EST: King Donnie backpedals on the besmirchment of Fed Chairman Powell and says he will not fire him. The orange-headed idiot realized he was making a fool of himself, negotiating with himself, while sending the stock market to Hell. The SPX bounces off the 38% Fib and begins a relief rally with S&P futures up +80 points continuing the party. UTIL catapults higher to 1025.

SPX S&P 500 Daily and Weekly Charts; Death Cross; Megaphone Expansion Pattern; Euphoria, Complacency and Fearlessness Remains in the Markets

There is a lot going on in the spaghetti above. It is best to start with the most sensational news. The Death Cross. Oh my, hide the women and children. Take cover; it's a death cross! Well, not quite, but it will be tomorrow or Tuesday when the 50-day MA, now at 5760, crosses down through the 200-day MA, now at 5754. The black circle shows the pending death cross that portends bad things for the stock market ahead. Not so fast.

As Keystone has explained many times, stocks typically pop when a death cross occurs, and drop when a golden cross occurs. Huh? What'd he say? For the death cross, it takes many days for the 50-day moving average to roll over and die so by the time the death cross occurs, price is ready to bounce, and at a minimum take a dead-cat bounce. No offense to any cats reading this. The trick to the death cross pattern is that when the expected price bounce occurs as the death cross occurs (now), as long as price remains below the 50-day MA, it will continue to drag it lower, and this will portend bad things ahead for stocks. So keep an eye on it and get ready for wall to wall television and internet headlines promoting the "Death Cross."

The charts show the stock market top on 2/19/25 due to the negative divergence on both the daily and weekly charts. It is not rocket science, and Keystone knows rocket science. When price continues higher, and ALL the chart indicators on the daily and weekly charts are sloping lower (negatively diverging down and away from price that keeps floating higher), a neggie d spankdown is on tap and start of a multi-week down move. Voila. Nuttin' to it.

Stocks continue lower for 8 weeks playing-out the multi-week smackdown so now you wait for positive divergence to form to call the bottom in the various timeframes. The matching or lower low in price occurs on the daily chart and you can easily see that all the indicators were possie d (green lines). The RSI and stochastics were also oversold agreeable to a bounce. Voila; the bounce occurs as King Donnie balks on his tariff drama sending stocks higher. The combination of short-covering, ongoing stock market complacency and euphoria wanting to buy the dips, the possie d, and Trump balking, create the huge up day.

The stoch's and MACD on the daily chart are long and strong wanting price to make higher highs in the daily time frame although the RSI and money flow are flattish and soggy not so convinced the upside is that strong ahead. Note that on the weekly chart, the RSI, histogram, stochastics and money flow were possie d joining the bullishness on the daily chart to create the upside relief rally orgy last week.

The orange circle on the daily chart show a juicy gap that needs buttoned-up if the bears want to take things far lower. The lower standard deviation band was violated so the middle band at 5517, and falling, is on the table. This is inside the orange gap so that is shaping up to be the potential top of the rally run. King Donnie buckled again on the weekend now exempting smartphones and other electronics from the Trump Trade and Tariff Wars. Idiot. That may create another big rally and the daily chart is agreeable to some more upside say to 5500-5600 to fill the orange gap and then set-up neggie d.

The daily chart shows the megaphone pattern, or expansion pattern, or megaphone expansion pattern if you prefer, and it has lots of price touches on the top and bottom rails. If price continues higher with the relief rally, the 5500-5600 area would provide another nice top-side touch of the megaphone that could usher-in the next move lower. Comically, the drop lower from there is a doozy (SPX 4000-4600). It is something to respect and keep an eye on.

On the weekly chart, the chart indicators are agreeable to price beginning a multi-week up move, sans the MACD that remains weak and bleak wanting to see a lower low in price on the weekly basis. The MACD is telling you that the downside is not done on the weekly basis. Sure, the upside rally may continue, especially with Trump retreating from his asinine tariff nonsense each day, and nullify the negativity still desired on the weekly basis. This will likely come to light in the days and couple weeks ahead. Simply watch the charts develop.

The 200-wk MA at 4680-ish should be shown respect going forward and that hints the bottom rail of the megaphone pattern may be in our future in the months ahead.

The Aroon is comical. The red line shows that 100% of the bears remain bearish on the stock market. No surprise, right? The green line, however, shows that nearly all the bulls still remain bullish on the stock market. That is hilarious. It is as if the selloff so far has not even happened. Traders and investors remain as bullish as ever and champing at bit to buy any dip. It smells like a major top and we have only felt the first wave lower.

In addition, the CPC and CPCE put/call ratios have plummeted again, further verifying the ongoing uber complacency and fearlessness in the stock market. Despite the daily Donnie reality television drama and stock collapsing, everyone is whistling past the graveyard singing songs and having a good time fully expecting the stock market to recover all losses and catapult skyward. What are they smoking? Keystone would like some of that stuff, it makes you see things.

So what does all this windbag technical analysis mean? It sounds like a lot of voodoo, and smoke and mirrors, or astrology. Isn't that what everyone says--until there is a big selloff and then every jackal becomes a chart technician?

The relief rally likely has legs, especially with King Donnie, donning his paper crown that he got with his Burger King happy meal, retreating on the tariff fiasco. The topside target is to fill the orange gap, tap the top rail of the megaphone and likely overshoot, tag the middle band and 20-day MA at 5517 and dropping, and to test the price congestion from March at the 5600-ish level.

From there, and if/when price makes the higher high on the daily basis (thin red line), you can assess if the chart indicators are neggie d to call the top on the daily basis, or if price needs to float higher a while longer. After the move up to 5500-5650, the downside would be expected to reexert itself and the SPX likely wants the lower lows on the weekly chart due to the weak and bleak MACD line. That will open the door for price to drop to 4600-ish or lower to tag the lower rail of the megaphone, perhaps by July 4th. There will be fireworks.

The weekly chart is clearly oversold and everyone and his brother wants to call a bottom but the weak and bleak MACD tells you to cool your jets. Remember one important fact about technical analysis. Stocks crash from oversold levels not from overbot levels!!

Keystone is not long or short the indexes right now after enjoying the long ride down after the top call and the relief rally back up. From the set-up above, and if nimble, or a day-trader, you can likely chase the upside (depending if there is a big pop on Monday due to Donnie's tariff retreat), if you want to try and ride price up to that 5600-ish. There should be a couple hundo points of upside there.

Keystone does not plan on chasing the long side right now. It is spring time and there is lots of ongoing outside work getting the flower beds and property cleaned-up after winter. Mowing will begin soon. The low put/calls keep you away from chasing the upside since at any moment, a wild and nasty reversal is likely sending stocks lower to satisfy the weak and bleak MACD on the weekly basis. These scenarios may happen quickly this week with price popping 2 or 3 hundo points early in the week, and then falling on its sword again as the dip-buyers turn into sucka's, again.

Going forward, Keystone will not play the long side but instead watch the charts develop and build-up a nice short position again. Watch the 2-hour chart to time the top when it occurs. If a huge pop occurs, Keystone will likely start shorting again and then build that short position larger as the potential top at 5500-5600-ish occurs. Get ready for the death cross headlines this week. Watch the charts; they will dictate the decisions. It is not rocket science. Ground control to Major Tom. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:21 PM EST: S&P futures pop +60 points when they came on line but King Donnie is backpedaling from the electronics exemptions after backpedaling from his hardline tariff stance. It is a confusing and chaotic mess orchestrated by Captain Chaos himself, Donnie Trump. It is reminiscent of the pandemic mess. Trump is a poor manager. S&P futures retreat to +20. Japan says they will not use US treasuries as a tool for the Trump Trade and Tariff War (the worry is that Japan would sell US treasury holdings increasing supply, decreasing price, increasing yield; this almost got out of control last week; communist China will likely play games with their US debt because they have no other cards to play except starting a war). S&P futures remain buoyant up +35 points on the Japan news. Donnie Trump is negotiating with himself and his tariff bluster seems to have peaked and is headed in reverse, thus, futures ramp higher. We need some Sue to get us in a groove; hanging out in a blues bar, the Ice Queen performing Queen Bee; what a talent. 

Note Added 8:36 PM EST: S&P futures are up +45 points despite Donnie trying to reverse the rhetoric concerning electronics exemptions. It is confusion so traders figure the orange head will loosen-up tariffs so stocks rally. It is the Sabbath so we must enjoy Black Sabbath; Paranoid, before Ozzie fried his brain on drugs.

Note Added Monday Morning, 4/14/25, at 5:10 AM EST: S&P futures are up +85 points choosing to believe that the relaxation of tariffs on electronics will be eased despite King Donnie saying that news on exemptions was a mistake, the tariffs are moving from one bucket to the next, and the electronics tariffs are coming. Whozitt? Whatzitt? The tariff drama is a joke like communist China proclaims. Obviously, Trump is clueless making it up as he goes along. The stock market will rally if it thinks Donnie is backing-down away from the tariff drama. For now, the above analysis and forward scenario is playing out. Watch the SPX daily and 2-hour charts to see when the tops are going to occur in those time frames since it may be the start of the next big slide downwards.

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/15/25, at 2:36 AM EST: The death cross occurs yesterday so the headline writers will have an easy day today. The SPX rallies to 5406 with a HOD at 5459 and 20-day MA at 5504. King Donnie retreats again with the tariff garbage, now talking tariff carve-outs for the automobile industry. Dufus. Why is the orange head putting on tariffs destroying the global economy, and bringing on Great Depression redux, when he keeps watering-down his initial bravado? Because Hollywood Donnie wants the cameras and attention on him every day all day long. Donnie creates daily drama so you must tune-in tomorrow for the next episode of the Trump reality television show, season 2, that is, if you want to waste your time in life.

NYMO McClellan Oscillator and NYA NYSE Composite Daily Charts Signal Stock Market Bottom At Hand

The NYMO, the McClellan Oscillator, is down in the basement expecting a relief rally to begin for the US stock market. The green circles show recent important bottoms all corresponding to the low NYMO readings especially sub -60. It's a Long Way to the Top if you wanna rock 'n roll. It's a lot harder than it looks. The 1960's and 1970's were a music paradise. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The SPX starts the day soggy dropping to 4835, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the S&P 500 catapults higher to 5457. Keystone exited the quickie index long trades and is now not holding index plays long or short. You cannot pass up those gains made in a day or two. It is time to let the indexes breathe and the smoke to clear. Today's powerful bull move should continue higher in the daily time frame. Ditto the 2-hour time frame so that tells you there is no top on tap for the stock market until perhaps late tomorrow or on Friday. The charts will tell you. But that pullback will only be a day or so since the daily time frame will still be long and strong. A playable top may be a few days ahead, say, the middle of next week as a guess. Simply watch the charts.

CPC and CPCE Put/Call Ratios and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Rampant Panic and Fear Signals Time to Nibble/Buy On Long Side

The bulls and the bears are the yin and the yang of the stock market and the pendulum swings back and forth. Keystone posted the CPC and CPCE put/call ratio charts leading up into the stock market top in February. One of the key giveaways that the US stock market was at a bubble top was the rampant complacency and fearlessness.

Everyday was a bullish orgy of traders buying anything with a heartbeat without fear that stocks will ever go down again. The euphoric optimism was off the charts (low put/calls) further proven by the parade of bullish calls on television and the internet and any bear, if you could find one, would opine fear, but then would be buying stocks 10 minutes later (obviously, not fearful).

That was then and this is now. What did Keystone tell you? Only a few of you remember. That is not good. The rest of you need to put those bongs down. He told you that you have to wait for panic and fear to arrive before you want to nibble on the long side and start to bring on long positions. Honey, we're home.

The snap-back rally in stocks today petered out once King Donnie, King Crybaby, said the 104% tariffs against communist China would proceed tonight at midnight. Stocks gave up the rally and went negative but closed off the lows. It is crazy price action, like you are living in a Cartoon. Time to plug in. 'Look around you'll see, it's a mountain made of sand under me, you're in the movies and I'm in your cartoon'.

S&P futures are down -80 points as this post is typed so traders are clenching their buttocks waiting to see what happens in the final hours. This is the Donnie Trump reality television show Season 2. This is what everyone wants.

The relief rally would have likely stuck today if the China tariff drama was not in play. If futures are down -80, no, check that, now -88 points, perhaps that is about the extent of it. Maybe not since it dropped 8 points in a heartbeat over the last minute. It does not matter. Panic and fear is rampant so it is best to buy shares off the people running from the exchange with their hair on fire.

The China drama likely depends on when the further escalation is announced by the communists. They likely want to tone down the speed of the drama so China may wait for tomorrow or the following day to announce the retaliation plan. If so, stocks should recover tomorrow since all that information is known/expected. If China announces retaliation tonight, minutes after midnight, futures may tank because Xi and Trump will be fighting a cage match of uncertainty.

Anyhoo, putting the baby politics aside, the high put/calls means it is time to take that list of potential longs on your wish list, that you researched the numbers on and studied the charts, and start nibbling for the relief rally. Stocks have collapsed a long way and simply need to recover to catch their breath. The full moon peaks on Saturday and stocks are typically bullish moving through the full moon.

The green circles show key bottoms in the stock market created due to panic and fear. Fancy that. The peaks in panic and fear correspond to the key bottoms when party-time for the bulls will begin again. Tell David Lee to bring in the California Girls. Keystone exited all index shorts on Friday and is now bringing on index longs. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:35 PM EST: S&P futures are down -88 as everyone is gathered in the pumpkin patch next to the Rose Garden, waiting for the orange head to appear and belch words of wisdom about the China tariff fiasco.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:31 AM EST: The S&P futures tanked down -140 points overnight but over the last couple hours come the whole way back to flat. Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War continues with the 104% tariff applied to China. So far, the communists have not responded with their retaliation plan. 

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The SPX starts the day soggy dropping to 4835, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the S&P 500 catapults higher to 5457. 

USD US Dollar Index Daily and Weekly Charts; Dollar Smile; Daily Chart Set-Up with Possie D

There is lots of attention on the dollar during the Trump Stock Market Crash induced by the Trump Trade and Tariff War. The big drama currently is the bounce or die decision at the 200-week MA at 102.61. USD price is at 102.48 in real-time. The battle continues. Obviously, dollar bulls want the 200 support to hold while the dollar bears want the 200 to fail opening the door to a far lower dollar.

The weekly and monthly charts for the greenback do not tell a lot. Price is stumbling sideways like a drunk in Times Square on Saturday night. There is no predictive value showing in those time frames.

The daily time frame, however, is set-up with positive divergence (green lines). As the year started, the red lines show the rising red wedge pattern (bearish) and the glaring negative divergence. The dollar top and neggie d spankdown was an easy call.

After three months of dollar weakness, the green lines show possie d setting-up for all the chart indicators so she is on the launchpad and fueling-up for a pop higher. The RSI is coming off oversold levels another positive for price moving forward.

The ADX pink box shows that the strong trend higher in the dollar, during the AI orgy and perceived good times in the market and economy, ended in late January. The dollar is now in a strong down trend since the first week of March as the pink box shows. The ADX shows a higher high but it is a lagging and confirmation indicator; not predictive.

The Aroon is comical. Nearly 100% of the dollar bears (red line) believe that the dollar will continue lower forever. At the same time, the green line shows that 100% of the bulls also believe that the dollar will go down forever. That's funny. The Aroon provides a contrarian signal. The boat is completely loaded with bulls and bears alike all on one side of the dollar boat expecting the buck to continue lower. You know what will happen instead.

Thus, the dollar should rally in the daily time frame going forward receiving the possie d rocket launch. The weekly and monthly time frames remain sideways, however, so after a rally in the dollar on the daily basis, price will likely continue chopping sideways through the year.

Keystone does not have any positions in the dollar long or short currently but obviously, a quickie trade going forward would be long the dollar due to the set-up on the daily chart. Watch that 200-wk MA at 102.61 since it will tell you if the gloom scenario occurs. The dollar climbs to 102.74 as Keystone writes this message. Money by Floyd. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 7:38 AM EST: USD 103.05. 

Note Added 8:00 PM EST: USD 103.52. 

Note Added Tuesday Morning, 4/8/25, at 5:39 AM EST: USD 103.35. 

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:25 AM EST: USD 102.29. The buck comes back down to test the 200-wk MA at 102.61 again. Bounce or die. Price comes down for a matching low and the indicators remain possie d in the daily time frame. Obviously, the news coming across the wires continuously and Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War create daily drama.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: The dollar starts the day soggy dropping to 101.84, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so the greenback catapults higher to 103.31 now at 103-ish. Wild day in the markets.

Note Added Friday Morning, 4/11/25: Dollar collapses through one hundo to 99.39 now about a -3% drop off the 103 a substantive move for a currency. Donnie Trump's Trade and Tariff War is wreaking havoc in markets. The dollar down and long yields up is rare. The euro runs higher to 1.14. Euro up, dollar down. The daily chart is pricing in the tariff drama and will need a day or two to set-up and maintain the possie d for a bounce in the daily time frame, albeit that it will occur from a lower price due to the Donnie drama. Price is at the bottom of the 3-year sideways channel so the bounce or die decision at this 99-100 area is critical for the future. If the orange head keeps his mouth shut for a couple days, good luck with that, the daily chart's possie d should help the dollar recover next week. Trump is causing wild price action in markets.

WTIC West Texas Crude Oil Weekly Chart; Descending Triangle Breakdown at 66.66

We don't need no steenkin' oil. King Donnie promotes the 'drill, baby drill' philosophy, but if the demand for oil is waning, as America and elsewhere slide into recession, even faster due to tariff turmoil, oil companies do not want to drill. If you have a steady order backlog of 100 widgets at your company, you do not ramp production up to 300 widgets because they will sit on the shelf. That be stupid. Not in King Donnie's mind.

The economy is likely slipping into recession. It is about time considering the ongoing labor, housing, and manufacturing recessions that have been ongoing for over a year. In the past, this would be the kiss of death for the economy and a recession guaranteed but nowadays chips rule the roost and the last couple years the AI craze was orgy time. At the same time, the wealthy class and upper middle class sycophants that service the wealthy, accumulated vast wealth from the Fed's money printing and have supported the economy, preventing recession, with their spending. The top 10% of wealthy Americans account for one-half of the spending. It is the New Gilded Age.

The prior oil chart in March explained the descending triangle a bearish chart pattern. If it gives way to the downside, like now, with the ominous 66.66 baseline failing, doom and gloom are ahead. The vertical side of the descending triangle typically dictates how far down price will drop if/when the baseline is busted. Commodities are special since they move wildly and as can be seen from the chart, a drop equal to the vertical side will be a trip to zero which will not happen.

Keystone likes to take the first touch in, or second, when charts forecast a crazy result so that would be the middle vertical lines that are 28-33 points. Thus, taking 28-33 away from 67 is the 34 to 39 landing zone now that oil failed at the 66.66 baseline. That is a recession number. No one needs any steenkin' oil or gasoline since they are sitting at home unemployed and taking the boat out on the lake this weekend is out of the question. In fact Carlos and Latisha put a for sale sign on the boat. Franks and beans are for dinner.

The 66.66 took so long to break, and is so important, that a back kiss is needed for price to prove that it wants to collapse. There will likely be some chop ahead and price may recover for the back test, and at that time the bounce or die decision will occur. A continued downward move in oil means recession. Oil falls below 60 a barrel printing a 59-handle (red dot). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Monday Morning, 4/7/25, at 7:41 AM EST: WTIC oil is 60.65 off the 58.95 LOD. 

Note Added Tuesday Evening, 4/8/25, at 7:20 PM EST: WTIC oil drops to 57.60 taking out the low from Monday.

Note Added Wednesday Morning, 4/9/25, at 3:35 AM EST: Oil drops to a 4-year low at 56.70 now at 58.23. Time to plan a road trip with cheaper gasoline on the way. Keystone drives gas-guzzling vehicles with V-8 engines, not glorified golf carts (EV's), but instead of worrying about miles per gallon, he is concerned about gallons per mile.

Note Added Wednesday Evening, 4/9/25: WTIC oil takes a ride to 55.12, then King Donnie balks with his trade and tariff war placing the drama on hold for 90 days, so oil catapults higher to 62.35. Brent oil loses the 60 level but if you blinked, you missed it; price is now at 65.69.

UTIL Utilities Weekly Chart

Copper and utilities took the pipe on Friday that caused the US stock market to drive off the cliff. Utilities play a key role in the week ahead. Remember, the two important metrics for utes are the closing price 15 weeks ago and the 50-week MA now at 994.05.

When both of these give-way to the downside, a trap-door opens and the stock market is flushed down the toilet a la Friday. This is serious business because up until Friday, the utilities had not yet failed. Since the utes did not yet fail, it tells you that the stock market should begin a relief rally any time and it likely has legs higher, but the utes then do fail on Friday. Two kids are playing with sticks and Mom yells that yinz will poke each other's eyes out. Well, Friday, little Sammy Stock Market got his eyeball poked-out.

The blue circle shows the 15-wk MA lookback comparison number for the week ahead; 987.26. For the week of 4/14/25, the 987.26 is meaningless and replaced with 1002.25 the purple circle. For the week of 4/21/25, the 1002.25 is meaningless and replaced with 972.25 the brown circle, and so on.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot; that is why we are never invited to the fun parties A Million Miles Away from boring calculations that turn minds to mush. Humorously, once you understand advanced math and physics in detail and depth, your brain is twisted into something that is never the same as it used to be. Thus, the 987.26 number is key for the days ahead. Write it on a sticky note and put it on your forehead. The 50-wk MA is also key at 994+.

Let's put together a scenario. Since utes are the last metric that collapsed into bear price action on Friday, it would likely be the first to reverse. Two numbers provide three spaces so you can see how the day/week will shape-up based on the utilities. If UTIL remains below 987.26, the US stock market is toast and the pain, misery and carnage will continue. Short-sellers will dance over the graves of the greedy bulls in the glistening moonlight. There is no hope for US stocks if UTIL remains below 987.26 in the week ahead.

If UTIL regains 987.26, the stock market will stabilize and at least stop going down. If UTIL moves above 994, the relief rally for the stock market will likely be underway. Snap-back rallies can be super sharp, fast, strong, and rip a short-sellers face right off. As shorts scramble to cover, they add jet fuel to any relief rally that occurs launching it into the stratosphere.

Three choices. Pick your poison. She was Poison in the Well, and I drank it. Watch utilities like a hawk on Monday. They will tell you a lot. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; Donnie Trump Stock Market Crash Feb-Mar-Apr 2025; King Donnie Crashes the United States Stock Market with the Trump Trade and Tariff War

The SPX, S&P 500 Index, the United States stock market, topped-out on 2/19/25 at 6147.43 the all-time record high, and highest number ever in history, and 6144.15 the all-time record closing high. That was then, and this is now. On 4/4/25, only 32 trading days later, the SPX crashes to a low at 5069.90 and closing low at 5074.08. The drop from 6144 to 5074 is a drop of 1,070 points, or -17.4%. Tech stocks are in bear markets down more than -20% from the tops.

When Keystone called the top due to the out of control euphoric complacency and fearlessness with neggie d on the SPX weekly chart, he forecasted a 200 to 800-point dump and the SPX is down almost 1100 points. That is the "Trump Stock Market Crash of Feb-Mar-Apr 2025" due to the "Trump Trade and Tariff War." What a mess.

Humorously, people that enthusiastically supported and voted for King Donnie have lost a big chunk of their life savings and some will lose their jobs. Too bad. That's life. You are getting what you voted for so go for it If It Makes You Happy as a painted-up Sheryl sings.

Traders were unhappy with the tariff bait and switch the orange head tried to pull. He is using trade balances to calibrate his actions but using tariffs as the mechanism (Trump lies when he says the new US tariffs equate to the other country's tariffs). The tariffs were more imposing than expected creating more stock market negativity. Yesterday morning after the opening bell, communist China (the 90 million making-up the filthy CCP led by Dictator Xi, not the regular 1.4 billion Chinese folks) retaliates with tariffs and stocks go off a cliff.

With the big drop-off in equities, it is time for everyone to start blaming their favorite scapegoat; "Those damn speculators!" Pause for laughter. Keystone is used to the heat and thanks everyone for the dough. Your money had to go somewhere. Sucka's. Keystone told you what would happen and he still had to take your money. You be dumb.

Trump is now pressuring Federal Reserve Chairman Powell to cut rates which will pump the stock market and economy. Inflation is not under control so cutting rates would send inflation to the moon. The US is likely slipping into stagflation a la the late 1970's Jimmy Carter days, high unemployment (recession) and high inflation. If not, the likely path is recession with inflation slowly retreating as the economy collapses and demand falls off a cliff. Fun times. Powell's Back is Against the Wall as Jay and Son Volt sings. Jay sings for Jay.

Trump and his team of economic idiots continue talking bravado with Donnie himself looking like an orange-headed moron tweeting about how everyone in America will be rich as he strips a massive $6 trillion in wealth from the markets last week. King Donnie, donning his paper Burger King hat he got with a happy meal, has created angst and uncertainty in global markets, the kiss of death, and his actions have wiped off $11 trillion in market value since his inauguration on 1/20/25. And he is going to make this money up quickly? That is a joke. The small-handed orange head is dumb.

If you had $100K in your stock portfolio, you now have $80K. That is what you wanted. If you have a tech-heavy portfolio, you have $70K now. Keystone explained the entire topping process in real-time from the end of last year into the 2/19/25 top. You were given water, my friend, but you did not drink.

Just as Nero fiddled as Rome burned, and Bush W read "My Pet Goat" as the Twin Towers were hit on 911 and burned, and Obama played golf as the US economy and foreign policy collapsed and burned, Trump is yucking it up playing golf as America's stock market crashes and economy burns. Such is America's crony capitalism system in its last throes.

Keystone covered all his short index positions on Friday and brought on a few long index bets only as potential quickie trades anticipating a strong snap-back relief rally. The Keybot the Quant robot remains short. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:16 AM EST: Treasury Secretary Bessent was on Twitter as SecBessent but it appears that the communication is now skuttled. Trump and crew likely cannot take the heat and do not want to take the criticism for crashing the stock market by -20% and more.

Note Added Sunday Morning, 4/6/25: As would be expected, the democrat-run media (CNN, MSNBC, ABC, CBS, NBC, PBS, NPR, New York Times, Washington Post, etc...) has non-stop weekend coverage of the Trump Trade and Tariff War and the Trump Stock Market Crash. It is doom and gloom and people will lose jobs and protesters take to the streets against the Trump and Musk tag team of economic collapse. Of course, the republican-run media (Fox News, Newsmax, OAN, Breitbart, AM talk radio, New York Post, etc...) is wall-to-wall rosy talk about the bright future ahead because of the orange head's tariffs. Such is America's crony capitalism system gasping its last breaths, tossing and turning in its last throes.

Note Added Sunday Evening, 4/6/25: S&P futures come on line down 2 hundo points so the bloodbath continues. Humorously, the bulls need to invite Jim Grant for an interview on CNBC. Every time there is a stock market selloff, Jim Grant of Grant's Interest Rate Observer appears on CNBC and opines about troubled times ahead. That is when the bottom is in for stocks. It is no diss on Jim, he is brilliant. Comically, the bulls are on their knees this evening praying for Jim Grant to show up at the stock exchange tomorrow. Trump, Powell at the Fed, and dirtbag Dictator Xi that controls China and the PBOC, can stop the stock market carnage with promises of support and stimulus but all three are as quiet as church mice.