The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES HOUSING RECESSION IS ONGOING FOR 28 MONTHS AND COUNTING

The US is in a housing recession for 28 months (2 years and 4 months). The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signaled the US housing recession starting 12/20/22 with no end in sight yet. Some homeowners turn into home moaners. People do not want to leave their current home, that has a low mortgage rate, for a new home with a bigger monthly payment. The lower availability of homes on the market hurts the first-time homebuyers.

The housing recession does not end until the red line moves above the green line. Here is the previous housing recession chart as this series continues until a housing recovery begins and rumor has it that the recovery is partying with Godot two towns over.

How could the United States not be in an overall recession when there is an ongoing housing recession for over 2 years, a labor recession for 1-1/2 years, and a 2-year manufacturing recession/slump? In past decades, that trio of pain would guarantee an overall US economic recession and yet it remains missing and nowhere in sight.

The Godot Recession has not yet arrived despite the weakness in housing, manufacturing and labor. The Federal Reserve provided monetary stimulus and the Congress provided fiscal stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic that created the 3-year housing recovery. The sales agreements were being signed faster than divorce papers. It was one big party. The banksters were partying giving away houses like candy. Now they are in the county jail, with everyone in the cell block, dancing and singing to Jailhouse Rock.

The party ends on 12/20/22 as the housing recession begins. Time will tell if Godot arrives bringing the overall US recession. King Donnie is doing his best to become the modern-day Herbert Hoover (Great Depression redux) destroying the economy and markets and bringing on that US recession. If consumer spending continues slipping away, you will say hello to the Godot Recession and the ongoing housing, labor and manufacturing recessions will say they told you so.