SPX S&P 500 60 Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; Short-Term Bull Market Would Be Confirmed at SPX 5448 and Higher; Potential Island Reversal Pattern

All of you know by now that one of Keystone's fave short-term market indicators is the SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross. The chart shows the sick month of April with price way below the 200 EMA and the short-term bear market flourishing. Until today when the bulls are threatening a breakout.

From late Tuesday into this hump day morning, the SPX tests the 200 EMA resistance at 5448 threatening to breakout with upside joy, but instead it is spanked lower from the Tweezer Top. Price ends the day at 5376 and a test of the critical 200 EMA will likely be followed by another that is for all the marbles.

If the SPX rallies and moves above 5448, remaining above and trending higher, the sky is the limit for the bulls as they toss confetti in the air and schedule the dancing girls for the party.

If the SPX remains below the critical 200 EMA at 5448, or if price rallies up for another back kiss of the moving average and fails receiving another spankdown, it is over for the stock market. Bad things will begin to happen. The entire road forward for bulls depends on SPX 5448. Bulls got buptkis and will choke going forward if they cannot get above 5448.

Note the firm price resistance on the chart at 5448-5480. Bigtime. The whole month of April there are touches of this range with smackdowns following. It is interesting that the critical 200 EMA lines up with the important price resistance for the entire month. This confluence gives 5448 even more street cred.

Also, watch for a potential island reversal pattern. All the price action below 5448 sits on an island by itself because of the gap-down on 4/3/25. If price floats higher to 5448-ish, and then in the blink of an eye catapults up to the 5570-ish level, a 100-point gap-up move, that would be an island reversal. Otherwise, if stocks rally, price will simply float higher and fill that big gap from 4/3/25.

The fate of the US stock market rests on the bounce or die move from SPX 5448; it is for all the marbles going forward. Comically, it probably depends on what King Donnie will tweet overnight.

Banks and retail stocks jumped into the bull camp today to push the indexes strongly higher but then both must not have liked the food since they went back to the bear camp that created the pall in the stock market as the day played out. Not good for bulls. Watch retail stocks (XRT) and banksters (XLF) tomorrow.

Will tomorrow see SPX 5448 and announce that the "Chariots A Comin', Good News," or will the orange one stick his foot in his mouth and bring on more "Bad Luck?" Most high school music classes would sing "Chariots" in the 1970's. Modern schools probably do not even have music classes anymore. The Boss and Mike are lighting-up the amplifiers. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Evening, 4/24/25, at 6:42 PM EST: Bring Nancy and the dancing girls in so the party can begin. The SPX explodes over one hundo points higher to 5484 overcoming the 200 EMA at 5448 that now becomes support. The banks carry the day. Bulls and bears battled from 10:30 AM EST to a little past noon time crossing above, then below, then above, the 5448 line in the sand many times. At 12:15 PM EST, boom, the SPX shot skyward. A back kiss of 5448 would be in order since it is a key level where the bears would have one last chance to pull the SPX back under water. If you bring up the 60-minute chart, you can see the higher high in price but it comes with all the chart indicators neggie d. She's cooked in the hourly time frame which opens the door to the back test of 5448. If you bring up the 2-hour chart, price prints the higher high, and with this chart the indicators remain long and strong wanting a couple more jog moves before topping-out (late Friday or Monday). Thus, there is likely some chop ahead at these levels, and sideways price action with an upward bias. The daily chart remains strong wanting some more higher highs in price on the daily basis. The weekly chart never printed a clean bottom since the MACD remained weak and bleak. The SPX monthly chart is a disaster remaining weak and bleak. All the jackasses are calling bottoms in the stock market. Look at the monthly chart, idiots. It is ugly and has not even begun to impose its long-term wrath on the stock market yet. Stocks are likely going to be weak for a couple years or more going forward. Just think, the SPX may drop down to the May 2015 numbers at SPX 2150 since that was the last legitimate top in the stock market. The stock market remains in the cyclical bear market with the SPX a couple hundo points below the 12-mth MA at 5700 and the NYA is 400 and more points below the 40-wk MA at 19333. Comically, traders are going long afraid of missing out on the relief rally but at the same time are buying puts for protection. That is like having your foot on the gas and the brake at the same time. Look for the back test of 5448 and the bounce or die decision. Bulls are set up to be happy for a couple or few more days although the upside is likely limited from here. Price is where it may gap-up for the island reversal pattern. The stock market moves on King Donnie's decrees. The stock market party has started. Caligula will be here in 10 minutes; he is picking up the Fed wine and Trump champagne that keeps the party going. Pope Powell will provide interest rate cuts that send stocks higher and each day the orange head backpedals from another misguided tariff decree that sends stocks higher. Irene and the Solid Gold Dancers will get your blood flowing. Beautiful Irene was first-rate, an unbelievable talent, and always classy; perfect. Traders await the next Donnie tweet.