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Wednesday, November 13, 2019
SPX S&P 500 Daily Chart; S&P 500 Prints New All-Time Closing High at 3094.04; Overbot; Rising Wedge; Negative Divergence; Price Extended; Stock Market Significant Top At Hand
The S&P 500 prints a new all-time closing high at 3094.04 on Wednesday, 11/13/19, after Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's testimony before Congress. The SPX all-time high at 3102.61 from Tuesday, 11/12/19, remains in place. The new record closing high prints on more putrid volume.
The sellout crowd was ready for a big show but instead of fizzle there was sizzle. The bears are in position to start whipping stocks lower and this occurs at the opening bell but the dip-buying bulls bot with both fists. Fed Chairman Powell rides in on a white horse releasing white doves from his dinner jacket. He tosses freshly-printed money to the adoring crowd like a fireman tossing candy to children during a parade. The central banks are the market. Powell holds his own today in the Congressional hearings and avoids the political quagmire. Stocks rally on his words.
The US and China may be further from a phase one trade deal than thought, so markets retreat off the intraday high. Then stocks recover into the closing bell. Where's this big selloff? That was a dud. The crowd was ready for a big bloody selloff. Now the natives are growing restless demanding to see a spectacle. Keystone dons a top hat and tails and begins tap dancing. He tells the crowd to calm down because the selling is still on tap.
Nothing's changed. We are simply 24 hours past last evening's dire market warnings. The SPX daily and 2-hour charts have not changed. They remain in negative divergence signaling a stock market top at hand. Since you can go back and check out the stochastics and other chart indicators in the prior post, let's look at a few different ones. The RSI remains in neggie d as per the prior chart so the top is in.
The green Aroon line is pegged at 96 with nowhere to go but down and the red line is jammed down to zero with nowhere to go but up; both are bearish signals that typically lead to a negative cross. The Chalkin Money Flow is in neggie d. On Balance Volume peaks with each price peak (purple stars) and it is in the stratosphere now. The CCI is in neggie d and coming off overbot levels. All these indications are bearish.
Price is extended above the moving average ribbon (blue stars). The SPX is above the 20-day MA above the 50 above the 100 above the 150 above the 200 so a mean reversion lower is on the table. You can see what happens after price is extended by looking at the early August price action.
So nothing has changed. We are at the same place as we were 24 hours ago. If you listen hard, you can hear a harmonica playing in the distance much like the sounds emulating from the hollows of Gettysburg the night before the epic Civil War battle. Something very big is going to happen and it will not be pretty. These are special market times that will be written about in history books for decades to come. Watch the overnight futures. Tonight is a repeat of the analysis from 24 hours ago. The stock market should fall apart at any time. Blow on it and you will probably knock it over. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added 8:02 PM EST: S&P futures are down -1. Dow -16. Nasdaq -2. VIX 13.00 (currently not trading). WTIC oil 57.33. Brent oil 62.55. Gold 1463. Silver 16.89. Copper trades flat. US Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.64%, 5-year 1.69%, 10-year 1.88%, 30-year 2.36%. The 2-10 spread is 24 bips.
Note Added 8:04 PM EST: S&P futures -2. Dow -20. Nasdaq -3.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/14/19, at 2:26 AM EST: S&P futures -5. Dow -42. Nasdaq -11. Gold 1467. Silver 16.97. US Treasury yields are; 2-year 1.62%, 5-year 1.66%, 10-year 1.86%, 30-year 2.33%.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/14/19, at 3:23 AM EST: S&P futures -4. Dow -33. Nasdaq -9. Russell -5. VIX 13.19. DAX -0.3%. CAC flat. FTSE -0.2%. Copper flat.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/14/19, at 3:32 AM EST: S&P futures -6. Dow -46. Nasdaq -14. Russell -5. VIX 13.25. 10-year yield 1.84%.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/14/19, at 4:30 AM EST: S&P futures -5. Dow -43. Nasdaq -13. Russell -5. VIX 13.21. DAX -0.4%. CAC -0.1%. FTSE -0.4%. MIB -0.2%. Gold 1469. Silver is above 17 at 17.06. Copper gains +0.6%.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/14/19, 5:06 AM EST: S&P futures -1. Dow -5. Nasdaq +1. Russell -2. VIX 13.10. Minutes ago, Bloomberg reports that China removes the curbs on poultry imports for America. Of course they do. The Chinese love their pork but prices have sky-rocketed.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/14/19, 6:05 AM EST: S&P futures -4. Dow -37. Nasdaq -13. Russell -4. VIX 13.26. Futures are not biting on the happy trade talk news. The bears are keeping volatility elevated and trying to move it higher while the bulls are pumping copper higher with all their might. Copper +0.5%. Soybean Donny is likely preparing some morning tweets right now that will attempt to create stock market joy. The trade talk hype is getting old as evidenced by the futures unimpressed with the China news on removing pork curbs.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/14/19, 8:33 AM EST: S&P futures -6. Dow -46. Nasdaq -20. Russell -5. VIX 13.29. WTIC oil 57.48. Brent 62.87. Gold 1469. Silver 16.99 slipping under 17. Whoa, Nellie, whoa, look at copper. Copper turns negative down -0.2%. Dr Copper performs a swan dive off Kahekili's Leap in Hawaii. The Keybot the Quant algo is long but champing at the bit to go short. If the SPX drops below 3079, Keybot will likely flip short. There is lots of drama going on in markets right now since this may be a dramatic and epic top forming.
Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/14/19, 8:43 AM EST: S&P futures -8. Dow -60. Nasdaq -26. Russell -6.66. Futures are at the lows of the overnight session. VIX 13.37. Copper -0.1%. 10-year yield 1.83%. Unemployment Claims are up sharply. Is the recession misery beginning? Fed Chairman Powell speaks before the House Budget Committee in two hours. Jerome is at the free buffet right now wiping a jelly stain off his necktie. CSCO laid an egg with earnings last evening and is down -6% in the pre-market creating sogginess in the tech sector and Nazzy futures. It is a big deal that behemoth Cisco opines about a slow economy ahead.
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