TNX 10-Year Treasury Yield Daily Chart; Ascending Triangle

Yields are on the move higher in October and this behavior now carries through into November. The 10-year yield is at the critical breakout line of the blue ascending triangle. This is a bullish pattern and with the vertical side from 1.46% to 1.86%, 40 bips, the upside target is 2.26% if yield can poke above 1.86%. Well look at that. Yield is at 1.86%. The 1.90% level is also key resistance.

The top standard deviation band is 1.88% and the high for the yield today is 1.87%. All these numbers are generally kissing each other. The question is will yield break out higher above 1.86% and run above 2% and higher on its way to 2-and-a-quarter?

The ascending triangle is bullish but price is at the trend line resistance with indicators that are weak. The maroon lines show all the chart indicators in negative divergence as yield sneaks out the higher high as compared to 6 days ago. Yield likely does not have the oomph to break out higher. The ROC indicates more sideways stuff ahead. The ADX shows that there is no strong trend in progress; yield is stumbling and bumbling choppy sideways.

The ascending triangle pops out at you but you can make a cup and handle (C&H) work in that chart and even an inverted head and shoulders (H&S); both of these patterns would yield the same results as the ascending triangle projection.

Yield may come back down to 1.72%-1.75% to place another test on the lower triangle trend line and then back up again to 1.86% to make the epic up or down decision later this month, say a couple weeks out, before turkey dinner. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Thursday Morning, 11/7/19, at 6:47 AM EST: Yields are on the move higher (note and bond prices trail lower). The Federal Reserve may be on pause for a while with the rate cuts. The central bankers are the market. The 10-year was spanked lower as discussed above, slipping to 1.84% but jumps up to 1.88% currently threatening a breakout higher above the ascending triangle. However, the same analysis holds above, for now. The low put/call ratios verify the euphoric complacency in the stock market so once stocks start dropping investors will seek perceived safety in Treasury notes and bonds sending yields lower. US yields are; 3-month 1.53%, 2-year 1.64%, 5-year 1.68%, 10-year 1.88%, 30-year 2.37%. The yield curve is no longer inverted. The 3-month to 10 spread is 35 bips and 2's-10's are 24 bips. Bank stocks are setting record highs. Regional banks rejoice at the steepening yield curve as evidenced by the parabolic rise in KRE. Interestingly, the inverted yield curve and then re-steepening, the hook pattern, is what occurs in front of a recession.

Note Added Thursday Afternoon, 11/7/19, at 12:50 PM EST: Yields explode higher today. The 10-year yield leaps higher to 1.97%. Holy smokes. That is a breakout higher. Wow. 16 basis points. They are carrying traders out on stretchers that were long bonds.

Note Added Friday Morning, 11/8/19, at 4:00 AM EST: Yesterday was a big up day for yields. Traders must believe the Fed will be on hold with rate cuts. Yields are; 2-year 1.67%, 5-year 1.72%, 10-year 1.90%, 30-year 2.37%. The 2-10 spread is 23.5 bips.