CPCE Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; CPCE Prints 1-Year Low; Rampant Complacency and Euphoria Signals Stock Market Top

The wheels fall off the CPCE collapsing to 0.47 a low not seen since the end of last year. The complacency has reached record levels. Frankie is already drunk as a skunk off Fed wine buying stocks without a care in the world. Timmy Trader throws darts at the stock pages to pick tickers since everything goes up forever with central banker largess and daily happy trade talk.

The S&P 500 prints a new all-time record high at 3110.21. The day is young. Traders are singing and dancing. The money is flowing like water.

The softness in stocks yesterday was due to the Senate putting together a bill addressing the Hong Kong situation. China says they do not want foreign intervention in the problem. Of course they don't; they are filthy communists. The Senate bill could jeopardize a trade deal. Stocks sold off. But fear not. America's faux free market crony capitalism system has cheerleaders and National Economic Adviser Larry Kudlow runs to a microphone proclaiming that the US-China trade deal is in its final stages. Stocks rally. Today it will be in the final final stage and next week will be the double-final final final stage. Soybean Donny said trade deals are easy two years ago.

The Impeachment Hearings against President Trump continue. The corrupt democrats build a case against the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown while shielding old man Biden. The corrupt republicans say there is no quid pro quo and Donny is completely innocent in fact look at the gold halo above his orange head.

The stock market is at a significant top that may prove epic. Traders and investors are afraid of missing out on the rally so they are buying and holding long positions while at the same time buying call options like maniacs. No one is buying puts since markets only go up. If any selloff occurs, the Fed and other central bankers will quickly come to the rescue so investors are no longer worried that stocks will ever sell off again.

You know what happens when traders are fearless. Yes, they are taught a lesson. Keystone continues to describe this topping process over the last few days. The low put/call ratios have yet to show their wrath, however, the sideways move in price at elevated record highs keeps burning off that available downside energy. The bears better get busy fast if they want to take advantage of the negative power of the put/calls.

The CPCE last printed this low at the end of December last year. Remember the big flush lower in stocks on Christmas Eve, then a recovery. The SPX peaked at 2515 on that low reading one year ago and dropped to 2445 in only a couple days; 70 quick handles. The stock market was toast on 1/3/19 and that is when the global central banker cabal stepped in to save the day and create this year's upside stock market glory. Perhaps this time the central bankers will not be able to save the day? At any rate, the 70-point downside should be matched at a minimum.

It is interesting that pundits continue parading across television screens saying markets are not at a top since there is no sign of euphoria as yet. They need to open their eyes. The CPCE verifies the euphoria and complacency with physical numbers. They are blind. Others say they are still looking for a blow-off top and since that is not in play, the stock market will continue higher for the months ahead. Look at charts! Some of the price moves are parabolic! There are gap-up days and gap-up weeks occurring left and right. This is a blow-off top.

A Bloomberg guest calls for SPX 3500 next year. On top of all this euphoric bullishness, folks close to retirement have over 70% of their money in stocks. Good luck to these souls. They will likely lose their shirts over the next couple years probably over one-half their wealth. Lastly, you know you are at a top when everyone tells you that there is no top in sight.

Same ole story the last few days since late last week. We are at a significant stock market top now. Perhaps the bears will growl today; stocks can begin the selloff at any time, any minute, any hour ahead. Perhaps a Black Monday is on tap? Get ready for a selloff if you have not already. If you have been contemplating selling your longs but remain on the fence, "Sell, Mortimer, Sell!" Ditch those stocks now and place shorts and buy puts. Today's goose higher on the happy trade talk may extend the top for a couple days to give times for charts to adjust. Humorously, if the trade deal falls apart this weekend, the charts will adjust very quickly.

The bulls have jammed stocks higher in the final half-hour of trading on the last two Friday's to paint a happy weekend tape. Also, the robots are buying big blocks starting 3:20 PM EST each day so it will be interesting to see if this occurs today. These are epic stock market times. If you are a young person, you do not realize this. Do not get caught up in the hype. Stay away from the stock market.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 11:02 AM EST: The bulls are running. The SPX prints another new all-time record high at 3112.98; the 3113 palindrome. VIX drops to 12.33. The handful of remaining short-sellers in the market give up all hope and cover their positions creating a mini short-covering rally. All the bears have left town vowing never to return again.

Note Added 11:10 AM EST: Whoopie! Wheee! More new record highs for the S&P 500, Dow Industrials, Nasdaq Composite, Nazzy 100 and the SOX semiconductor index. The SPX prints 3114.56 the highest number in history.

Note Added 11:17 AM EST: The SPX prints 3114.56 a new all-time record high. VIX 12.35. Stocks print more euphoric new highs but the VIX is not moving any lower. The VIX lows today are at 12.31-12.35 so this level is key going forward. Note how the SPX nailed the 3114 breakout target of the sideways triangle on the SPX 2-hour chart. The happy trade deal news slightly delays the top.

Note Added 12:07 PM EST: The upside orgy continues with the SPX printing a new all-time record high at 3116.02. VIX is at 12.30 but did dip to 12.25 for the LOD.

Note Added 3:10 PM EST: The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3117.11. VIX is at 12.14 dropping sub 12.30 so stocks receive another spurt higher. The bulls are running the show all day long. All Hail Larry Kudlow! Everyone, let's sing, "For he's a jolly good fellow......" Copper rallies +0.6% today creating market strength. The stock market rally is dubbed, "The Kudlow Rally." Will it result in the "Kudlow Top?"

Note Added 3:30 PM EST: At exactly 3:20 PM EST, the largest trading volume of the day on the one-minute basis prints. Interestingly, instead of more up, the strong volume spanks the SPX lower from the new all-time high at 3117 to the 3113 palindrome. VIX 12.20. No, check that, there is a 3112 print.

Note Added 3:49 PM EST: Wheeee. Here they come, three weeks in a row. The S&P 500 catapults higher from 3112 to 3116 in a heartbeat. Larry Kudlow says, "Happy Days Are Here Again."

Note Added 3:51 PM EST: The bulls want another record print jamming price higher. The SPX is at 3116.62 pennies from the record 3117.11 with minutes remaining in the day. Wow, look at that. Floor traders are carrying Larry Kudlow around on their shoulders singing, "For he's a jolly good fellow....." Whoa, price is at 3117.02. The bulls want that new record.

Note Added 3:54 PM EST: Spankdown. The SPX is slapped back, then a push higher. Bingo. The SPX prints a new all-time record high at 3117.60. A trader falls to his knees kissing a photograph of President Xi saying the communist leader is going to agree to a trade deal. Another trader drops to his knees kissing a photo of President Trump saying that King Donny will never let stocks go down again, ever. The confetti cannons are firing off shredded currency into the air. The band begins playing the Star Spangled Banner.

Note Added 3:58 PM EST: The SPX is going out at the record highs with price at 3118.61 a new all-time record high. It is a pure melt-up the same action now occurring three Friday's in a row.

Note Added 4:01 PM EST: The SPX finishes at 3120.46 a new all-time record closing high and 3120.46 a new all-time record high on Friday, 11/15/19. The SPX closes at the highs. Remember, Keystone's 80/20 Rule says 8's lead to 2's so the breach of 3080 opened the door to 3120 which just printed. A breach of 3118 leads to 3122 perhaps on tap for Monday. The bulls are salivating that 2800 may lead to 3200. It is amazing that price is only 80 points away from 3200. The final put/calls will be interesting today. Obviously, the market euphoria is out of control. Do you think the US and China will announce a final phase one trade deal this weekend? There are only 30 days remaining until the two sides can reach a deal (12/15/19). What do you think? Is a historic Black Monday on tap?