SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart; 200 EMA Cross

One of Keystone's fave short-term market signals is the 200 EMA cross on the SPX 60-minute chart. You can immediately see how price respects this key moving average by the action in early October. The SPX failed through the 200 EMA, then came up for the back kiss, and failed, so it was doom and gloom ahead. However, as usual, happy US-China trade talk and dovish central bank chatter sends stocks higher the bullish orgy taking the S&P 500 to its record high at 3127.64.

The bulls are okay as long as the SPX remains above the 200 EMA at 3057. Serious stock market trouble occurs sub 3057.

The Impeachment Hearings against President Trump continue in the House. Ambassador Sondland appears to provide damaging testimony for the president but after the spinmeisters are done twirling everyone around, you don't know what to think or believe, so no one cares. The impeachment stuff is not currently impacting the stock market. Trade news does. Overnight, the communist head negotiator Liu says he is "cautiously optimistic" about a deal.

The Chinese have learned how to manipulate their markets from the US playbook. Asian indexes were tanking overnight but after Liu's happy comment deep losses turn into marginal pull backs on the day. Then, minutes ago, news reports say Liu invited the US trade negotiating team to China for more talks. S&P futures were down about -14 and improved to -8 on the optimistic comment, then came back to up +3 on the invite comment.

Comically, it turns out that Liu invited the team last week; this was not new news, it was yesterday's news. When you think about it, the US team is probably not yet willing for a China meeting since they do not feel adequate progress is being made in the talks. S&P futures are down -2. Dow -15. Nazzy -8. VIX 13.19. 10-year yield 1.75%. The trade deal hype fizzles. Copper is down -1.0%. Copper was down -0.9% when the happy trade talk comments occurred a couple hours ago and it did not improve so traders knew the trade comments were nothing special. Copper is actually worsening and it will drag the broad stock market lower if the trend continues.

The epic stock market times and history-making price action continues. It is hilarious. Once again, China says it wants to buy more ag products from the US. Soybean Donny will be happy to hear that. It is the same stuff over and over. Humorously, both sides probably do not want a trade deal since they can keep goosing their respective stock markets with little news bites of positivity every few days. Why would you want to buy the cow when you receive the milk each day? Watch that 3057 level. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 8:10 AM EST: The US may delay the 12/15/19 tariffs if a trade deal is not reached. Soybean Donny is in retreat. Futures love the non-stop happy trade talk. S&P +4. Dow +32. Nasdaq +9. Russell +3. VIX 12.84. Copper -0.4%. USD 97.76. The bulls are not receiving as much bang for the buck from the trade news hype.

Note Added 8:14 AM EST: S&P +5. Dow +37. Nazzy +12. Russell +4. VIX 12.79. Copper -0.6%. Copper traders are not impressed with the trade deal news.

Note Added 8:35 AM EST: Philly Fed is a beat but New Orders data are weak. Jobless Claims are unchanged on-month but 10K higher than forecast. 10-year yield 1.76%. The USD is at the 97.79 palindrome.  Futures are steady after the trade deal hype and economic data. Existing Home Sales are released at 10 AM EST. S&P +5.

Note Added 8:42 AM EST: Dictator Xi or Soybean Donny need to run to a microphone and tout some more trade deal news since the latest soundbites are not creating much upside. S&P +2. Dow +7. Nazzy +2. Russell +3. VIX 12.90. Copper slips lower down -0.7%.

Note Added 9:01 AM EST: S&P +1. Dow +4. Nazzy -1. Russell +4. VIX 12.96. Copper -0.8%. 10-year yield 1.75%. Look at that. The bulls are jamming volatility lower to save the day. VIX 12.52.

Note Added 9:05 AM EST:  Bloop. The VIX pops to 12.92; the bulls cannot keep the VIX beachball underwater. S&P +1. 10-year yield 1.76%. Copper -0.8%.