The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signals that a housing recession started in July. This month's housing data is robust. For example, Housing Starts are 1.364 million units overtaking the June 2018 high of 1.350 million units and the November 2016 high of 1.323 million units. It does not change the housing recession call, however.
The red line is slipping further below the green line. It would take huge numbers in Starts, Permits and other housing data for several consecutive months to curl the red line higher again. It is odd to see such robust housing numbers late in the season. Fall begins tomorrow and if the earth-moving has begun on the sites for all these units, they will not be constructed by the time the snow flies. There is likely some special considerations in the data.
Keystone called the housing recovery in February 2012 and was met with jeers. The doom and gloom was rampant back then and Wall Street braced for another stumble in the housing sector. The maximum negative sentiment marked the bottom in 2012. After 7 years and 5 months, the indicator flips negative and forecasts sorrow ahead for the housing sector. Peak Auto is likely occurring, or has occurred, as well. The housing and auto industries are the two main drivers of the economy. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
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