TLRY Tilray Weekly Chart; Downward-Sloping Channel; Oversold; Positive Divergence; Lower Band Violation; Price Extended

A year ago, Tilray was the favorite flavor of global traders. Medicinal marijuana, and all out legalization, gains popularity in the States and Canada is in the total legalization camp. Society is realizing that pot is far less harmful than booze and by an order of magnitude. TLRY was a moon shot. Traders were tripping over each other buying and smoking, smoking and buying. Price sky-rocketed to 3 hundo but when that fool could not find anyone to sell to he realized that he was the bag-holdin' fool.

TLRY then performs an epic collapse topping at 300 one year ago and now at 29 off its lows. It's an over -90% loss top to bottom one for the record books. It is left for dead. Even Aunt Edna kicked TLRY in the head with her orthopedic shoe.

Wall Street analysts, strategists and television pundits unanimously bash Tilray saying the piece of trash will remain garbage. It has no chance of recovery. You know these people are typically wrong and when the sentiment is completely loaded to one side, start looking at the other side.

The downward-sloping channel is steady and orderly the bulk of it obviously machine-driven. Distribution was taking place into June where you see the pop due to the possie d on the histo, stochastics and money flow. Price would be expected to roll over again due to the RSI and MACD remaining weak and bleak, and it does. The green lines show the positive divergence bounce 3 weeks ago again the pot bulls calling a bottom in Tilray. Price rolls over slightly over the last 2 weeks due to that sketchy bottom in the RSI where it placed a sliver of possie d. It is odd to see the RSI weak and bleak when the MACD line is not. In a nutshell, the chart looks bueno (great for longs). Price is bottoming here and ready to rock and roll higher.

TLRY came down to fill that gap from a year ago when it was just a baby. The door is open to 25 again but if the RSI holds the bottom is in. It would be better if the RSI would have firmly fell into oversold territory but it is close enough for government work. Note that the overbot conditions last November were only a sliver above 70.

The stochastics are clearly overbot. The lower standard deviation band was violated so the middle band at 39.50, and trending lower, is on the table. Also the upper band at 54-ish. The ADX pink box shows that the trend lower over the last year was a strong trend lower until June when the strong trend lower petered out. This is indicative of a stock that is basing and stumbling sideways looking for a bottom.

Price is below the moving averages needing a mean reversion higher. All these parameters are bullish across the board. It is simply a question on where to enter. Scaling-in, say, with 3 or 4 buys over the next month would be a good approach. The Aroon red line was at one hundo, now 92, and nowhere to go but down while the green line is at zero with nowhere to go but up; both favor the bulls.

Keystone will be buying TLRY going forward. Folks want to smoke pot, that is all there is to it. It improves your mood and appetite if you are ill. It does not leave you with a hangover the next day; you may actually feel more rested. It is not a gateway drug to harder stuff; that is a myth. So as the North America's land begins sprouting more and more marijuana plants, Tilray should recover and string together a nice multi-week rally ahead.

Perhaps the daily and 2-hour charts provide more insight into when to enter a long. Remember, price may come down to 25-ish again although a trip all the way lower to its offer price is not expected, but you never know (because the broader market may tank and take everything lower for a few days).

The other very tricky aspect of Tilray is the massive short interest in the stock. Holy Schamolie. Everybody and his bro is short TLRY, there are no more shares available to short. Even Aunt Edna placed her entire life savings on the short side like the nice young man at the financial office suggested. As TLRY recovers, it will likely have a couple moonshot days as shorts panic and run for the hills creating huge short-covering rallies. Of course, they are all short because they believe the stock is going to zero, so their opinion cannot be discounted. The chart, however, says otherwise. That is why it is a speculative play.

The daily chart is set up with positive divergence as September began providing the moonshot higher. Price is trying to hold the 20-day MA at 29.59; keep an eye on this as a deciding line. The chart is stumbling sideways. It would be nice if TLRY was soggy early this week since it will allow for better entry points to place a long. Anytime going forward, between now and a couple weeks or so, TLRY will place its bottom and then likely recover into the 30's and 40's in October. Smoke 'em if you got 'em. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.