Stock chart patterns and technical analysis (TA) explained simply. Disclaimer: This blog and all its contents are for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not trade or invest based on any information seen on this blog. Please read Terms of Service. The K E Stone blog sites (Keybot the Quant) are blacklisted by Google, so enjoy the ad-free experience, and only use the Donate button when supporting the sites.
Saturday, September 21, 2019
SPX S&P 500 2-Hour Chart; M Top; Tight Bands
The SPX places an M Top pattern on the 2-hour and then falls away in retreat. Remember, traders were fearless and complacent so a top was expected and the negative divergence on the 2-hour chart indicated the top. The standard deviation bands are pulling in tight so a big move would be expected, and the S&P 500 is down about 30 handles off the high a couple days ago, so far. More downside would be expected but as always, President's Trump or Xi, or their henchmen, may tweet happy talk to create a rally at anytime.
The chart indicators are weak and bleak wanting to see price place a lower low in this 2-hour time frame. Remember, a H&S was in play but the right shoulder came up to a matching high to form a M Top instead. You can still call it a H&S, like Quasimodo, with a hunchback, which would target 2892-ish if the 2960 neckline fails. The potential island reversal pattern remains in play where price may move lower to 2960 and then immediately gap down to 2940.
Stocks fell on Friday after China cancelled a meeting with Montana crop and agriculture people. So the trade war news and central bank drama is what drives the stock market up and down. What a sick financial world it has become.
Note how price came down to the same price range as a couple days earlier but the selling volume outweighs the buying volume (brown circles). This is a bearish indication.
Monday and Tuesday will be critical. Traders will be waiting to see if King Donny touts happy trade talk news at 6 PM EST Sunday evening to boost the futures markets. If so, he may stick-save the stock market for another day or two. If there is no happy talk, equities should continue lower in the hourly and daily time frames. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.
Note Added Sunday Evening, 99/22/19, at 7:41 PM EST: Right before futures opened for trading, China says the cancelled agricultural meetings last Friday (that tanked the US stock market) was not related to the trade talks. S&P futures pop +15 to begin the new week of trading. Global markets are a joke. Phony central bank money-printing and government intervention and happy talk are the market. Copper is marginally lower. The story gets better. The Whitehouse then says that the meeting was cancelled at US request. The Trump administration could have immediately said this on Friday fut they did not; thus, they spent the weekend thinking up a new story.
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