SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross; FOMC 2-Day Meeting Begins; Fed Rate Decision and Chairman Powell Press Conference Tomorrow; Potential Island Reversal and/or H&S

One of Keystone's key ST (short-term; hours and days) indicators is the 200 EMA cross on the SPX 60-minute chart. The bulls are singin' songs and carryin' on for the last couple weeks as stocks run higher. The bears were in charge in August with the SPX below the 200 EMA (red circle). During late August early September (blue circle), the bulls and bears battle for control. Price went above the 200, then back below, then gapped above and the bulls ride to victory (green circle).

The SPX 200 EMA on the 60-minute is at 2948 with the SPX at 2998 which is 50 points above. The bulls scoff at the bears; they remain on easy street for the short-term as long as the SPX rmeains above 2948. The red rising wedge, overbot conditions and neggie d spanks price lower off the top. Price is bumping along now which is understandable considering the important Fed rate decision is on tap tomorrow.

Today begins the two-day FOMC meeting and Chairman Powell speaks tomorrow afternoon. The cobbler is placing new cleats on his tap-dancing shoes today. Markets are a crap-shoot until King Powell brings the tablets down from on high and tells global traders how to trade tomorrow afternoon. What a sick financial system the central banks have created.

Price is on an island above 2960 so a potential island reversal pattern would be in play if the SPX came down to 2960 and then gapped-down to 2938, the reverse of the early September move that created the island. The SPX is also forming a potential H&S with the right shoulder occurring now. A head at 3028 and neckline at 2960 is 68 points difference so the downside target would be 2892, call it 2900, if the neckline fails.

Seasonality factors are on the bull's side. Stocks are higher about 80% of the time heading into a Fed meeting which is today and tomorrow. This week is OpEx with Quad Witching on Friday. Typically, stocks are up from Tuesday into Wednesday during OpEx week so professional traders will likely be buying a dip today.

Tomorrow morning Housing Starts are reported. This is big-time. Keystone has called the start of a housing recession and downturn from 7/17/19 forward so it will be interesting to see what the Starts are at this month.

News bites will move the markets to and fro,especially oil news such as the imminent Saudi press conference concerning the attacks of their oil facilities, but make no mistake, everyone is waiting on Herr Powell to signal how to trade from the podium tomorrow. S&P futures are down -3 about 2 hours before the opening bell for the Tuesday session. VIX 14.85. Powell is trying to edit his comments for tomorrow's speech but has broken the tips off three No. 2 pencils so far this morning. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.