US 10-Year Treasury Note Yield Weekly Chart; Long-Term Sideways Symmetrical Triangle Forecasts a Big Move Going Forward

The US 10-year yield is at a historic juncture. There is no more room in the apex of the sideways symmetrical triangle so it is time for the yield to make a bounce or die decision. As the thick bars show, the projected move from the triangle will be 125 to 150 bips.

The breakout higher in yields would occur from 4.30% and the daily chart is trying to have an inverted H&S pattern play out. If yield moves above 4.30% and begins trending higher, the 5.55% to 5.80% range is the upside target.

Conversely, if yield fails from the triangle, and drops below 4.05%, that targets the 2.55% to 2.80% yield range on the downside.

The 20 and 50-week moving averages are lining out sideways at 4.13% to 4.24% within the apex of the triangle; use these two metrics for an early indication on which way she's breaking.

The 200-wk MA is coming up and flattening out at 3.99%. Perhaps Fed Chairman Powell, when he speaks at 2:30 PM EST today, will tell the tale forward. Here is a link to the prior 10-year yield chart explaining the inverted H&S. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:30 AM EST: As everyone waits for Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High and tell global traders how to trade, the 2-year yield is 3.57%, 5-year 3.83%, 10-year 4.24% and 30-year 4.86%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is at 67 bips.

Note Added 4:55 PM EST: Pope Powell's edicts are a nothing burger for yields. The 2-year yield is 3.57%, 5-year 3.83%, 10-year 4.24% and 30-year 4.86%. The 2-10 spread, the yield curve, is at 67 bips.

USD US Dollar 5-Minute Chart; Dollar Collapses After Donnie Trump Says He Is in Favor of a Weaker Dollar Policy

King Donnie causes disruption in the currency markets this time. Trump says he is okay with a weaker dollar spitting on the decades-long strong dollar policy touted by the US. Oh my. Whenever a president or treasury secretary was asked about the dollar, it was always a strong dollar policy. Not anymore. Paging Larry Kudlow. He is over at Fox Business these days. No one has touted the stronger dollar policy more than him, he calls it 'King Dollar', while also cheerleading the president, so it looks like Larry will abandon his economic beliefs for the sake of the president?

Donnie wants a weaker dollar to boost exports and the manufacturing sector that has been in recession for two years plus. You do not want an orange mouth, however, shooting off comments that have immediate and serious ramifications on global markets and stability. 

Trump is a wrecking ball. He is playing with fire now purposely trying to drive the US dollar lower. This rhetoric is driving gold and silver to the moon. Is the Trump family grifting off the moves? Hey Donnie Junior and Eric, I'm going to make comments on the dollar this afternoon. Okay, dad, we're on it. Like taking candy from a baby; crony capitalism.

You can see the immediate impact of Donnie's comments last evening around 4 PM EST, the greenback collapses from 96.25 to 95.55 a big move for Forex in a couple minutes. It is a 4-year low in the mighty dollar going back to early 2022. Calmer heads prevailed realizing it is just the orange head saying more stupid stuff, as usual, so he could get his puss on camera another day and create content for his daily presidential reality television show.

It is fascinating watching the final throes of America's corrupt crony capitalism system. The dollar stabilizes and is moving through the blue sideways channel. If the buck falls through the lower blue line, Trumpski did some damage to the dollar and he risks instability in global currency, stock and bond markets.  This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 9:33 AM EST: As everyone waits for Pope Powell to bring the tablets down from On High and tell global traders how to trade, the USD is at 96.25.

Note Added 4:56 PM EST: As would be expected, Treasury Secretary Bessent makes the rounds this morning at the business media outlets doing clean-up in aisle four for his orange-headed boss. The treasury secretary proclaims that the US strong dollar policy remains. The greenback pops to 96.79 today and is now at 96.37.

CPC Put/Call Ratio Daily Chart; Unbridled Optimism, Complacency, Fearlessness and Bullish Euphoria Indicates Major Stock Market Top

Hit the deck!! Take cover! She's gonna blow! The low put/call drama is ongoing to begin the year and the crescendo may be on tap tomorrow with the Federal Reserve rate decision and Chairman Powell presser. Powell is a short-timer now with only two meetings remaining after tomorrow; a meeting in March and then his swan song farewell meeting at the end of April. His term ends in May.

Nothing has changed. Like going to the dentist; you can put it off but it only results in more rotted and decaying teeth. The fuse on the stick of dynamite only has a half inch remaining (1.2 cm) and she is going to blow sky high and take the stock market to Hades.

The expectation is for the stock market to top out any day and to begin an extended downward slide. With the Fed meeting on tap tomorrow, it may serve as the catalyst to push the pile of crap over the hill. If not, it does not matter, nothing changes. If it is happy talk that wins the day, give it a few days and it will be set up again to go over the cliff. The complacency does not disappear until pain, despair and agony appears and takes its pound of flesh over the coming weeks. Gloom, Despair and Agony On Me.

As the stock market begins falling, a drop of from 200 to 1,000 SPX (S&P 500) points is expected, say, over the next month. Last year topped out the third week of February. This year, the stock market is a bloated piece of sh*t that is long overdue for a collapse due to the outrageous and unprecedented complacency. Are you ready to take a ride on that Highway to Hell? Bon is singing so it is early days. Angus has his little book bag to complete his school boy uniform trademark image he carries to this day (he would run home to play his guitar after school every day and never even take a minute to change out of his school boy uniform). This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Wednesday, 1/28/25, at 9:30 AM EST: Ding, ding, ding. The SPX tags 7K on the opening bell. The new all-time high is 7002.28 ahead of the Fed decision and Chairman Powell presser.

The Keystone Speculator's Labor Market Indicator; UNITED STATES IS IN A LABOR RECESSION FOR 28 MONTHS AND COUNTING

THE UNITED STATES LABOR RECESSION STARTED ON 9/8/23 AND IS 28 MONTHS ALONG AND COUNTING; 2 YEARS AND 4 MONTHS!!

The country also remains in a housing recession and manufacturing recession in addition to the labor recession but an overall US recession continues vacationing with Godot (it is nowhere in sight). The Godot Recession (the recession that never arrives) occurs because consumer spending by the wealthy Americans, that benefited from the 15 years of Fed money-printing, remains robust and the AI hype and excitement, the chip orgy, also delays the overall US recession.

How can this be? For many decades, if America is in a labor, housing and manufacturing recessions, it is guaranteed to be in an overall US economic recession. Not now. Semiconductors are the new sheriff in town and that sector has gone great guns higher. Further, the AI hype sends stocks to the moon. The easy money provided by the Fed and Congress during the COVID-19 pandemic creates inflation and jobs galore. People could not spend the free money fast enough, like pigs feeding at the trough. Employers begged for workers during 2022-2024 but not so much anymore.

Company layoffs were high in October as managers try to clean house before the holidays. Smart businesses know not to lay people off during the holidays so if you keep your job through Halloween, you are likely safe until the new year. Well, 2026 is in full swing now and company managers are meeting in conference rooms deciding whose head should be lopped off next. Keep your head down to avoid the corporate scythe.

The obedient mice remain in their closet-sized cubicles pretending to work even if they are not that busy in case the boss walks by. No need for them to have an excuse to lay you off. Then the dreaded desk phone rings. Even the coworkers in the other cubicles know what that telephone ring means. The boss wants you to come to the his/her office so it is time to walk the Green Mile to the unemployment line. Heads pop up above the cubicle walls watching their friend walk, with head held low, to the gallows. They know his fate. Another One Bites the Dust. And another one's gone, and another one's done, another one bites the dust.

The Federal Reserve meets today and tomorrow with the rate decision and Chairman Powell press conference on tap tomorrow afternoon. The Fed is expected to leave rates on hold. That will create another hissy fit from King Donnie.

The Fed's mandate is price stability (rates) and maintaining maximum employment. Powell has been leaning the message towards concerns for the labor market so rate cuts win the day but the messaging will likely now transition back to an equal concern for both mandates.

The rise in precious metals (gold, platinum, silver, etc...) due to Donnie's daily theatrics and economic uncertainties, and rise in base metals (silver, copper, zinc, nickel, etc...) due to the AI and data center build-out, and steady increases in consumer prices at Walmart and the local grocery store as tariffs are sloughed-off on the American consumer, inflation may buoy higher faster than anyone thinks currently. It would be a good choice to stand back and pause on rate cuts even if it means everyone has to listen to King Donnie throw another temper tantrum for a few days because he wants perpetual low rates (he is a real estate guy that worships debt).

The unemployment rate popped to 4.3% in August 2024, almost a year and a half ago, and the thinking was that it would take a big jump higher as typically occurs once a recession takes root. Alas, instead, the blue line shows the rate bumping along sideways after that using the 4.3% as a resistance ceiling.

Not anymore. Resistance becomes support and the unemployment rate pops to 4.5% with the December data. The data collection and releases are messed-up due to the government shutdown in the Fall. Again, the thinking is that the overall recession is finally here (the US has been in a labor, manufacturing and housing recession for over 2 years running) but alas, it is staved-off by the AI orgy party, Fed easy money, and ongoing consumer spending by the wealthy class.

The January data a couple weeks ago was a 4.4% unemployment rate so a slight retreat. The rate is back-testing that critical 4.3% line in the sand.

Looking at Keystone's metrics, for the next US Monthly Jobs Report on 2/6/26, if the unemployment rate falls to 4.3%, remains at 4.4%, or comes in hotter at 4.5% and higher, all these outcomes continue the ongoing labor recession. The unemployment rate needs to drop to 4.2% and lower to signal the first step into producing a labor recovery.

The stage is set. The jobs circus is back in town next week. If you listen real close, you can hear the calliope music. The crony capitalism system has become a caricature of itself.

The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator; UNITED STATES IS IN A HOUSING RECESSION FOR 37 MONTHS

The US is in a housing recession for 37 months (3 years and 1 month). The Keystone Speculator's Housing Market Indicator signaled the US housing recession starting 12/20/22 with no end in sight yet (although the chart above shows the green and red lines converging). Are you a homeowner or a home moaner? People do not want to leave their current home, that has a low mortgage rate, for a new home with a bigger monthly payment. The lower availability of homes on the market hurts the first-time homebuyers.

The hedge funds have been buying-up homes and multi-units and renting them out for several years. Lately, analysts proclaim that less than 1% of all homes purchased are by hedge funds. That is stupid talk. How did they analyze data? Or did they? Did they just do a search on some hedge fund names and then call it a day? There are always shadow companies doing things on the slide. Joe Fafooshnik Real Estate does not sound like a hedge fund, although it may be tied to one.

The housing recession does not end until the red line moves above the green line. Here is the previous housing recession chart as this series continues until a housing recovery begins but rumor has it that Ricky Recovery is partying with Godot.

As mentioned above, the green and red lines are converging. Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, and therefore, and hence, and conversely, or maybe that is just Keystone. Looking at the metrics, a projection can be made for the next Housing Starts release that is 2/6/26, but who knows about the date these days as data tries to get back on track after the government shutdown in the Fall. If Housing Starts are 1.340 million units or higher, that is enough to begin a US housing recovery. No one would be happier than King Donnie. If, however, the Starts come in at 1.335 million units or lower, the housing recession continues.

It sounds like Punxsutawney Phil. Groundhog Day is Monday, 2/2/26, in Keystone's neck of the woods in southwestern Pennsylvania, and if Phil sees his shadow, it means 6 more weeks of winter are ahead. If Phil does not see his shadow, spring is around the corner. You can watch early Monday morning to see Phil's prediction.

Anyhoo, the last time that Housing Starts were at that high a number (1.34 million units and higher) was back in August so it is likely that the housing recession may linger a while longer. It is also the dead of winter so construction activity will not pick up for another couple months. It would be bad if there was a solid deterioration with Housing Starts down to 1.2 million units, or 1.1 million or a million, since that would forecast bad times ahead with a worsening housing recession and likely overall US recession at the doorstep.

How could the United States not be in an overall recession when there is an ongoing housing recession for over 3 years, a labor recession for over 2 years, and a manufacturing recession/slump ongoing for 3 years? What special times. In past decades, that trio of pain would guarantee an overall US economic recession and yet it remains missing (with Godot) and nowhere in sight.

The Godot Recession has not yet arrived despite the weakness in housing, manufacturing and labor. The Federal Reserve provided monetary stimulus and the Congress provided fiscal stimulus during the COVID-19 pandemic that created the 3-year housing recovery. The sales agreements were being signed faster than divorce papers. It was one big party. The banksters were partying giving away loans for houses like candy.

The party ends on 12/20/22 as the housing recession begins. Time will tell if Godot arrives bringing the overall US recession. If consumer spending continues slipping away (after the holiday goose), you will say hello to the Godot Recession and the ongoing housing, labor and manufacturing recessions will say they told you so (for years). It is definitely a different animal this time around.

CRB and GTX Commodity Indexes Weekly Charts; Sideways Symmetrical Triangle and Ascending Triangle Breakouts Indicating Rising Goods Inflation; Trumpflation

The commodity indexes breakout higher last week representing rising goods inflation. Right when President Trump is hanging his hat on recent inflation data that showed an ever so slight taming, zingo, inflation numbers would be expected to rise going forward. This complicates the Fed rate decision and Chairman Powell press conference on hump day afternoon, 1/28/26, and the Fed should keep rates steady with no cut. That would be the proper move considering the breakouts in the charts above. That will cause the orange head, that wants rate cuts without rebuttal, to have another hissy fit.

Bozo Biden, the Alzheimer's patient with early onset of dementia, created horrific inflation, the worst in 40 years, with the asinine glorified golf cart agenda (EV's), and push towards green energy where solar does not work on a cloudy day and windmills do not turn without wind. Sleepy Joe's idiot war on the American energy complex and disastrous decisions create terrible Bidenflation during 2021 and 2022 and then prices begin to level off in 2023 and 2024, albeit at high levels.

Keystone asked the butcher the other day if he could take a package of steaks and buy them on an installment plan? He waved a butcher knife at Keystone and said 'get lost ya bum, go buy some spam and heat it with Sterno, now Beat It'. It is ridiculous when a package of meat has a price tag of $43 on it. That cow must have been living in luxury until its demise.

Anyhoo, King Donnie Trump, the orange-headed bloviating carnival clown, is elected in November 2024 promising lower prices on day one. Maybe he forgot what he said like any 80-year old codger would? The funny thing is that inflation did pare back after he came into office in January a year ago, into the springtime. Donnie was on that like flies on sh..., well, you know, and he proclaimed that he solved inflation and all should bow before him in his honor. There was a lot of sideways chop with inflation through the summertime into Fall but now you can see the end result (goods inflation heading higher).

The charts above do not portend well for Donnie, especially when he plans on hitting the campaign trail to brag about the economy and lower inflation ahead of the mid-term elections in only 9 months. Inflation data should rise going forward so if you are bragging that you stopped inflation, you will look like an orange-headed fool.

The GTX chart has an ascending triangle feel to it that is a bullish pattern. Laying out a couple of different triangles and using the vertical line on the end of the triangle as the projected gain, the pattern targets 4250-4350 now at 42 hundo.

The CRB chart shows a textbook sideways symmetrical triangle pattern. Price breaks out at 305. The vertical side is 30 points so 335 is the target. If you use a vertical side that is more like the touches in March and May, let's say 330-335 is the upside target for the breakout. Again, this means more goods inflation that will ripple through into overall inflation.

The CRB components are crude oil, natty gas, heating oil, RBOB gasoline, sugar, cotton, coffee, cocoa, orange juice, corn, soybeans, wheat, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, live cattle, and lean hogs.

The GTX components are WTIC and Brent crude oil, natty gas, heating oil, RBOB gasoline, sugar, cotton, coffee, cocoa, orange juice, corn, soybeans, wheat, gold, silver, copper, aluminum, nickel, lead, zinc, live cattle, feeder cattle and lean hogs. GTX has more base metals so its recent Trumpflation erection is bigger than the CRB's. May the Schwartz be with you.

Clearly, the rise in commodities indexes lately is due to precious metals such as gold and silver, and base metals such as silver and copper. Gold is bought as King Donnie creates more daily drama and trouble with the Fed and with allies. It would be better if he kept his mouth shut about a lot of things but, that's Our Donnie. Base metals rise on the AI hype and data center build-out. Silver is a twofer with one foot in precious and the other in base, so it is the favorite girl at the dance.

A less than attractive man with one eye was sad since it was hard to find a date. He had a wood eye placed into the socket and it looked really good so he had more confidence. There was a big dance in town so he attended hoping to meet a nice young lady, and across the room he saw a not too attractive girl, with a big nose, so big that she would be rich if it was stuffed full of nickels. She was perfect for him. He mustered up courage and walked over to ask the girl, that was also lonely, if she wanted to dance. He was so hoping that she would say yes. "Would you like to dance?"   "Would I !! would I !!!"   "Big nose!! Big nose !!!"

Anyhoo, keep an eye out for Trumpflation, coming to a theater near you. The Theatre of the Absurd. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added 1/26/26: Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley say there is no fear of inflation whatsoever. Are they vaping?

Note Added 1/28/26 at 9:42 AM EST: GTX catapults higher above 4.3K to 4314 now within that 4250-4350 ascending triangle target so the pattern is satisfied. 

The Keystone Speculator's Inflation-Deflation Indicator; UNITED STATES ENTERS THE INFLATION RANGE WITH THE 1/28/26 FED RATE DECISION ON TAP; Trumpflation

Keystone's inflation-deflation indicator pops up into the INFLATION range just before the Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday and Wednesday with the rate decision and Powell presser on tap 1/28/26 in the afternoon East Coast time. It adds a layer of complexity for the Federal Reserve since rising inflation, Trumpflation, will take off faster and run far higher and hotter if flames are fueled with rate cuts.

The Fed is taking a neutral stance on its dual mandate of price stability (controlling rates) and keeping unemployment low. The Fed had their thumb on the scale of jobs providing rate cuts to help boost the economy but is now not wanting to weigh one mandate more than the other. With the latest 3.18 number on the indicator, caused in a large part by rising commodities, mainly base metals, the Fed will have to start placing more emphasize on taming rising inflation rather than the jobs picture. You will see that in Powell's comments on hump day.

The likely sad path ahead, however, may be a 1970's stagflation redux where folks are out of work and inflation is running higher. Stagflation kills families of modest means. However, there was a lot of great music out of 70's. Like Elton and Crocodile Rock. At high school dances in the 1970's across America, teens would congregate at the high school gym on a Friday night for a Halloween Dance or some other special event, and groove to the latest rock tunes. Guys would muster up courage to walk across the gym floor and ask a girl to dance but it would mostly be slow dances because they only knew how to shuffle back and forth. Those Friday nights, when Suzie wore her dresses tight. Ow!

Anyhoo, the Fed will stand pat on Wednesday not providing a rate cut so King Crybaby Trump will throw a tantrum and berate and denigrate Powell and the Fed. Fun times. Comically, Powell is protecting Trump from himself. It's funny. Trumpski is under the delusion that inflation is falling. It is choppy in month to month data but overall, as clearly shown above, inflation is on the move higher for the last couple years. It bottomed in the neutral range as 2024 started and inflation has increased ever since. The frog is being boiled slowly.

Even Trump is in between a rock and a hard space. If rate cuts occur going forward, it will fuel the breakaway inflation. Trumpflation would be a permanent word in the lexicon. If rate cuts do not occur, the jobs picture will likely continue to deteriorate. Now you are getting into recession territory since people not working buy less stuff, consumer sales will drop now that the holidays are over and after everyone shot their wad, and employers have to sh*t-can more workers (a deflationary spiral begins). Choose your poison. Poison in the Well.

The week ahead will have lots of fireworks around the Fed. The baby presidential reality television show continues daily with the new Fed chair side plot appearing in recent daily episodes. Keystone summarized the new Fed chairman drama a couple weeks ago; here is the link. The top job at the Fed becomes a lot harder now since whoever King Trump picks as the new chairman must agree to lick Donnie's wingtips and his orange butt each day, and lower rates at each meeting. This will be a catastrophic mistake for the economy and markets if the chart above keeps jumping higher.

After the 1/27/26 and 1/28/26 two-day meeting, the next FOMC meeting is 3/17/26 and 3/18/26, and then 4/28/26 and 4/29/26, and then 6/16/26 and 6/17/26. Powell is done mid-May in less than 4 months.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why days after hearing about the fun party, the host told Keystone his invitation probably got lost in the mail, Powell only has three more meetings remaining in his long 8-year reign including Wednesday. No one is likely looking forward to exiting stage right more than him, despite the talk of staying on. That is stupid talk. Powell will be ready to retire and get out of the spotlight and the Federal Reserve has to stand on its own with whatever members it has; he will likely go fishing come May.

So hump day is likely no cut, and the March meeting will be up in the air but probably leaning towards no cut, and then the late April meeting will be Powell's swan song and farewell meeting. At that point, you just want to leave it all to the new guy, or gal, that will have their first meeting in June less than 5 months away. The short time remaining for Powell makes all of Trump's rhetoric over the last year sound even more babylike and childish but, that's Our Donnie. He was born a little rich kid with a silver spoon in his mouth so his behavior through life, and now, is no surprise; self-centered narcissism.

It is doubtful that Donnie will upstage the Fed and announce the new chairman selection before Wednesday but you never know. If it makes for good television for the daily presidential reality show, he may do it, but probably not. How would you like to be the fool that takes the chairman job, so everyone knows that you agreed to lick Trump's butt, and he announces it now so you have to deal with the decisions coming, and any Fed statement here forward, and basically start the job immediately, but you will not take office until May. "Good luck wit dat," as they say in the Bronx. It will be interesting to see who wants to be Donnie's little b*tch.

There may be conflict between the new guy selected and Powell as the confirmation process for the new chairman would begin. Trumpski is running out of time and needs to get the ball moving. He may wait for the Fed decision on Wednesday and then announce his pick afterwards. Trump has botched the process over the last year, first promising a pick last September, and then lying every other week saying the pick is two weeks away.

Donnie is "Two-Week" Trump. It is funny that we have "Two-Week" Trump in the Whitehouse and "Too-Late" Powell at the Fed. This must be how the crony capitalism system finally collapses. Donnie will likely have no choice but to pick kiss-*ss Hassett for the chairman job.

The chart above is a bowl of spaghetti so it may be helpful to untangle it a bit. The prior inflation/deflation chart is from last April if you want to review that point in time about a year ago; here is the link.

Inflation is choppy sideways for 3 years in neutral territory with the Federal Reserve not making any progress lower to their 2% goal (do not confuse Keystone's non-dimensional indicator above with the actual inflation percentages). You can call it a victory in that inflation has been held in check, albeit at higher everyday prices for food, rent, insurance, utilities, etc.., but at the same time a failure because it is not moving lower. The Fed needs to pull the indicator down to that 2.5-ish area to make headway with the final push lower to their 2% inflation target. Maybe it is a bridge too far?

Inflation is back in vogue, like Madonna, strike a pose. Inflation is rearing its ugly head again with Keystone's indicator sneaking higher above 3.1.

The chart above mainly reflects goods inflation rather than services inflation. For decades this did not matter since both moved in unison. In recent years, however, due to obscene central banker money printing that has made the wealthy rich beyond their wildest dreams, and the disruptions of supply lines due to the pandemic, the goods and services inflations have not been in sync.

Services inflation, that was prevalent during and after the pandemic, rolled over and came down to join goods inflation but after a few months, the game is changing again. The demand for precious metals such as gold and silver, and base metals such as silver and copper, are through the roof. This behavior is sending metal prices to the moon and these higher costs will ripple down through the economy. The AI garbage is the culprit causing inflation in utility costs and now common people will pay the cost of higher inflation so the wealthy can become richer. Such is crony capitalism filth.

The rise in metals are a big deal since all electronics will be more expensive. Ditto any gifts you buy for your honey. Silver is the hot commodity nowadays since it has its claws in both the precious and base camps; a twofer so it is the most popular girl at the dance. 

The oil, coal and natural gas industries are the energy backbone of the United States. President Biden's war on America's energy complex in favor of the glorified gold cart (EV) economy, along with the out of control Congressional spending (fiscal stimulus), and the Fed's money-printing (monetary stimulus), and the Ukraine War, and the ongoing supply disruptions from the pandemic aftermath, created the runaway inflation in 2022.

Now the impacts of the Trump tariffs will finally ripple through to a greater extent and resume the trek of higher prices. Everyone hopes this is not the case because people cannot afford to live now. It would be nice to have a president who cares, but Trumpski is more interested in foreign affairs and licking Putin's boots. Donnie is hob-nobbing in The Alps the last few days at Davos drinking hot toddies and telling the millionaires how they should live. Americans can eat cake.

The 10-year Treasury note 'price' is used for the denominator (bottom number) of The Keystone Speculator Inflation-Deflation Indicator. The 10-year Treasury price is 98.20 with a yield at 4.23% on 1/24/26 (same yield as 9 months ago).

Commodities are in the numerator (top number). The CRB Commodity Index is at 312.24.

CRB/10-Year Price = 312.24/98.20 = 3.18

Above 4.20 = Hyperinflation

Between 3.1 and 4.2 = Inflation

Between 2.5 and 3.1 = Neutral; Inflationists and Deflationists Battle

Between 2.1 and 2.5 = Disinflation

Below 2.1 = Deflation

The Fed is targeting a 2% inflation rate (not to be confused with the indicator number) and since the indicator above is moving choppy sideways for the last 2 years, inflation can be assumed to be moving sideways above the Fed's 2% inflation target. Keystone's indicator is in a neutral sideways posture but this is viewed as too high inflation from the Fed's perspective, and the public's eye, when they go to the grocery store. It will only become worse if the chart continues higher.

Granted, the calculation above is focused more on goods inflation rather than services inflation. For many decades, you could track commodities, with the CRB, or GTX, and the goods inflation and deflation dictated the overall economy's direction. As the US politicians and corporations screwed common America over the last five decades, sending jobs overseas and destroying the middle class so stock prices could move higher on the foreign slave labor, the goods production went to foreign nations while the US focused more on services as the major part of the economy.

Bring up the $CRB and $GTX charts to see the breakouts that represent inflation rising going forward.

The debate between inflationists and deflationists over the last few years has been the discussion of goods versus services inflation. The pundits looking for inflation said goods would inflate and catch-up to the rising services sector while the talking heads preaching deflation said the services inflation would drop to join the goods disinflation and deflation as the economy slumps. All bets were off and both sides ended up being correct as the COVID-19 pandemic hit knocking the world on its arse.

The deflationists were correct in 2019 and 2020. Services inflation drops to become more compatible with the goods deflation. Of course, the China Virus pandemic wiped out the airlines, hotels, travel, restaurants and hospitality and leisure industries. Services are knee-capped falling to the ground joining the goods deflation. Men turned into bush people letting their hair grow wildly outward as they avoided the barber for fear of catching covid.

Then the central banker cavalry arrives March 2020 promising to print money forever. Greenspan, Bernanke and Yellen (former Fed chairs) were already in the basement of the Eccles Building running the printing presses like mad. Helicopter Ben loaded-up his chopper with freshly printed Benjamin's dropping the money from the sky into the investment banker's hands on Wall Street. The crony capitalism filth rains down from above.

President Biden, along with Congress, provided way too much stimulus during the pandemic creating a lazy workforce that would rather sit home than work. The staffing shortages were a headache for employers that wanted to get back to normal during 2022 to 2024. Wages rise sending inflation higher. These behaviors, and the obscene amounts of Congressional (fiscal) and Federal Reserve (monetary) stimulus, send inflation to the moon.

When the Fed and Congress tag-teamed in March and April 2020 with trillions in stimulus, billions went into the US stock market pumping it to record highs. A few hundred thousand workers left the workforce either retiring or caring for loved ones after the pandemic, creating a massive labor shortage as the pent-up demand hit in 2021 and 2022.

Rising wages create inflation. The lack of inflation and ongoing persistent deflation for many years was due to the stagnant wage growth. Inflation cannot exist without wage inflation which had not occurred for many years until 2021 and 2022. In 2025, wages were moderating to keep inflation at bay, and maintaining a sideways posture, but inflation will increase if employers have to start raising wages to keep or attract workers in 2026.

The inflation in recent years is mainly due to energy, food, insurance, and rent/utility costs and a lot of this is due to the AI hype, and perhaps AI follies, as time plays out. People notice higher gasoline and food prices more than other price changes and a recent feather in Trump's cap is the lower oil prices that create lower gasoline prices, but that may change with buoyancy appearing in oil prices again.

The wealthy class, made super rich by the Fed's money-printing over the last couple decades, continue to spend money which staves-off an overall recession in America, for now. There were signs that the wealthy were beginning to cut back on their spending but the holidays came and everyone spent more money they do not have. Why not? The government and Fed do the same; join the party. YOLO; you only live once, as Andy Huggins jokes. Hysterical comedian.

Inflation in 2022 ran higher to try and match the 2011 highs. Back then, traders were convinced that rates would continue higher but instead the peak was in. Time will tell if the inflation peak in May/June 2022 will hold; so far it has 3-1/2 years later. The poke higher to begin 2025 petered out with the indicator falling back into neutral territory but it has started higher again with a vengeance under Trump.

Remember after Trump won the November 2024 election, inflation continued higher into January 2025, when he was sworn into office, but it then retreated into the springtime. Donnie was quick to seize credit for bringing down inflation solely due to him winning the election and his presence in the Whitehouse. How about now, orange head? Trump does not have that leg to stand on anymore since the Trumpflation is now back up to the highs seen as he was elected and took office a year ago.

A breakout above the prior 2025 highs will open the door to test the May and June 2022 peaks in inflation. Americans will be screaming for relief if this outcome is on the table and the country will be in a lot of trouble (with stagflation) if the indicator takes out the May/June 2022 highs since the inflation highs from 2011 will be the next upside target.

The people propping up the economy right now are the upper class and wealthy because the Fed's easy money made them rich beyond their wildest expectations driving stock prices to the moon (at the expense of the rest of society). The metals are currently sending goods inflation higher sending overall inflation higher. 

The news is not good for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell that begins looking for the fishing poles and lures in the basement this weekend. The bad news is that the Fed is making zero progress for 3-1/2 years at lowering inflation to their 2% goal. Oh no, well, if that is bad news is there any good news? Nope, last year, the good news was that inflation was not trending higher so there was hope at further reductions in prices. Not anymore.

Inflation is moving higher as the chart above shows as King Donnie calls for more rate cuts that will only fuel higher inflation. The King Donnie reality television show will feature a few episodes with Pope Powell this week. Be sure to tune in and waste your lives listening to the crony capitalism dribble.

The wealthy class loves rate cuts because the easy money flows into the stock market pumping prices higher making the rich richer. One-half of Americans do not own a single share of stock. 30 million Americans used the crony capitalism system to screw the other 300 million over the last five decades destroying the middle class. The 30 million keep asking why is everyone so glum?

The stock market will not be happy that rate cuts are on hold, and that at the same time, higher inflation and lower consumer spending may hurt earnings. Do you smell that? No, it is not Keystone, he took a shower this morning. It is the slight whiff of stagflation in the air.

CPC Put/Call Ratio and SPX S&P 500 Daily Charts; Complacency and Bullish Euphoria Lingers Indicating a Top Any Day

The ongoing complacency, bullish euphoria and fearlessness is evidenced by the low put/call ratios and is historic behavior. The off the charts complacency and lack of any worry that any downside will ever occur in stocks is special; like the dotcom bubble in 1999-2000 and the real estate bubble 2008-2009. It has the same feel. After many weeks and months, we are at this euphoric high as if the walls of the room were just painted with airplane glue. She's gonna be a doozy.

You should have planned for a big pullback already with Keystone beating this dead horse for a while. A buddy years ago was a trucker and he had a delivery at a rendering plant (the proverbial glue factory). He was hung over from a late night of drinking and not feeling well. A plant that is processing dead animal carcasses gives off the most putrid smell; it is nasty. So he is starting to smell this sickening odor and still does not know which loading dock to back the rig into and sees a man sitting over yonder eating lunch.

He decides to run over there and ask the man where to back his rig, unload, and get out of there as fast as possible. As he walks up to the guy he realizes he is sitting on a dead horse, and his lunch bucket is open and sitting on the carcass. There are flies around and the man looks up with part of his tuna fish sandwich dripping from his chin. The poor dude saw that and blew his cookies right there and could not stop puking. He looked up as he was dry-heaving and saw the guy sitting on the dead horse laughing his arse off. The trucker buddy said he did not feel right for 2 days after that.

Anyhoo, be warned. If you are new to trading, get out. Sit and watch over the next couple months. Maybe a Black Friday tomorrow? What do you think? You are ready for an event like that, aren't you? If stocks fall apart tomorrow, watch the utilities. If UTIL, or DJU, loses 1067, it is lights out, and that would pave the way for a potential Black Friday, or Black Monday, and crash ahead. It's going to be a lot of fun over the coming days and weeks.

The bears may mean business. The previous charts show the neggie d in play so the smackdowns are in progress and should have legs lower for a few weeks. Remember yesterday, price came up for a back kiss of the 50-day MA at 6837, and bounced, so it jumped to touch and back test the 20-day MA at 6913. It fell back to close midway between the 20 and 50. Then today, the SPX puts its big boy pants on and jumps to the 20-day at the opening bell and higher, but only to retreat again. Price sits on the 20 and will make a bounce or die decision from 6913 in the morning. S&P futures are slightly negative on Thursday evening on the East Coast.

Price did not have to come back up because the neggie d should begin slapping price hard to the downside without mercy. The bears may mean business this time because they came up to fill that large gap from the Tuesday collapse. Now the SPX has no need to come back up at all going forward. If you are not ready for the big pullback, you are going to receive your head on a platter. Only You, And You Alone, can prepare for the downfall that is knocking at your front door right now. The Platters. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 1/25/26: The SPX sits at the 20-day MA at 6913-6916 for the last couple days. It is making a bounce or die decision.

SPX S&P 500 60-Minute Chart with 200 EMA Cross

A great near-term and short-term stock market signal is the SPX 60-minute chart with 200 EMA cross. Say what? What language you speakin'? Stocks are in a short-term bull market if the SPX is above the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 6883. Stocks are in a short-term bear market if the SPX is below the 200 EMA on the 60-minute at 6883, like now. The battle continues.

The SPX was above the 200 at the end of last year as everyone enjoyed some figgy pudding. The start of the year teased failure at the 200 but more AI hype and talk of rate cuts sends the front half of the month to the moon. The trouble started yesterday, Tuesday, with the big drop in equities shown by the red circle.

Price comes back up for the back kiss of the 50-day MA at 6830 today and bounced, taking out the 200 EMA at 6883 and running above 69 hundo. Alas, at the end of the day, the S&P 500 falls on its sword and drops lower to 6876 to end below the important 200 EMA at 6883 albeit by 7 measly points. Nonetheless, the bears have their hands on the market steering wheel.

Tomorrow and Friday are big days. Watch SPX 6883 since it is going to tell you who wins going forward. Bulls need 7 points to paint a bright picture ahead and S&P futures are up +19 on Wednesday evening.

President Trump is in rare form this week. Stocks rallied today after King Donnie folded like a cheap suit at Davos. He was worried about the stock and bond markets just like when he previously folded due to turmoil from his tariff rhetoric. TACO=Trump Always Chickens Out. The Europeans show that they do have a tiny backbone after all. Europe pulls the prior tariff deal now that Donnie has changed the goalposts adding new Greenland tariffs creating a larger mess. Canada's Carney puffs-out his thin chest, standing-up to King Trump, although he is not much taller than the podium, suggesting that Donnie's actions are rupturing ties with allies. The orange head went to Europe to film the latest episode of Donnie Does Davos but Davos did him.

Trumpski backpedaled at Davos from the Greenland threats and unhinged remarks over the last few weeks. He says he will not use force. Then he says he will not impose tariffs on European nations over the matter. He caved. Trump says he has a framework of a deal over Greenland but he talked to NATO and not Denmark. An hour later he said he had the concept of a framework of a deal. It is pure jackass stuff.

The orange head gets Iceland and Greenland mixed-up during his comments like any 80-year old would; he is probably going down the Biden dementia path. The Whitehouse press secretary chick Leavitt, that always yells when she talks, berates anyone asking about the mix-up denying it happened and changing the subject. Thanks for the transparency. When Donnie was pressed about the so-called Greenland deal by a reporter, he said it was too complicated to explain. Pause for laughter. That is what you tell people when you are bull-sh*tting them. Are you going to own Greenland; yes or no? Donnie has no answer except to say it will be an "infinte" deal. Huh? Quick, get this man some ginkgo biloba and Geritol.

Do you little orange sycophants suck this stuff up and believe the dribble? Right on cue, the Donnie kiss-*sses run to microphones proclaiming that he is playing 3-dimensional chess and the Greenland deal, what deal?, is brilliant. It is laughable. There is no deal yet. Trumpski could have taken care of the Greenland matter behind closed doors with zero need for drama. He is a baby man-child and was the King Crybaby after the 2020 election loss.

Hollywood Donnie raised cane about Greenland the last few days so he could have more drama and filler for his daily reality television show. That was the reason. It is daily theater and stage craft with Donnie feeding his narcissistic ego seeking attention and adoration; it is his daily fuel. The crazy Greenland rhetoric was a step too far trying to screw and shaft allies like they are pieces of dirt. Not a good move or look. Trump proves himself untrustworthy among allies.

However, the antics guaranteed that the cameras would be on him each day before, into, and through Davos, and that is what really mattered to Donnie. Everyday is a new episode of the presidential reality television show. Tomorrow he plans to sing the 'Donnie Man Can' a remake of the Candy Man. Take it away Sammy. Who can make a sunrise? Cover it with chocolate? The Donnie Man Can. Sammy was a helluva talent and performer. And he did all that with one eye. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 1/25/26: The bulls save the day but can they hold on? SPX sits at the 20-day MA at 6913-6916 for the last couple days. It is making a bounce or die decision.

UST10Y 10-Year US Treasury Yield Daily Chart; Textbook Inverted Head and Shoulders Pattern

Yields pop this week as markets become nervous about Japanese bond markets and with the King Donnie daily baby rhetoric the latest diatribe is Greenland. Diatribe Donnie will be speaking from Davos shortly where he is hob-nobbing with the billionaires that tell the millionaires how to live. Donnie loves to dine and play in the opulence while Americans cannot afford to pay their bills or buy food. Let them eat cake. The a-holes attending Davos will profess worry about climate change when their private jets are burning barrels of fuel at the airport proving that agenda is phony BS.

Anyhoo, the 10-year yield pops higher receiving an upward thrust from the inverted H&S. With neckline at 4.15% and head at 3.95%, that is 20 bips. If yield breaks out above the neck at 4.15% the upside target to satisfy the H&S is 4.35% and that is price resistance from August. Yield popped to 4.32% so it is almost there already. It may overshoot up to the 4.39%-ish level.

The orange lines for the chart indicators show the upward thrust but the blue lines show negative divergence developing and the stochastics are overbot. The yield has legs higher due to the Japan worries and on recent Fed and Donnie talk, and inflation and jobs data, however, the daily chart hints that the upside may not endure. Ditto for the weekly chart.

Thus, mathematicians say thus a lot, that is why we are never invited to the fun football game parties, yield may finish up its run to satisfy the 4.35% target and then drift lower again. The 200-day MA 4.24% is strong support. The weekly chart wants to see yield jog in this 4.25%-4.39% area for a couple-three weeks before likely topping out with negative divergence.

Thus, yield will likely remain elevated in this 4.30% to 4.39% area chopping along for the next month and then the sideways range will likely widen and the 10-year yield will spend much of its time the next few months stumbling sideways through the 4.15%-4.40% range, and bringing it in tighter, the 4.24%-4.40% range. It does not have the vibe that it will run to 4.5% and higher over the next few months but the political and Fed rhetoric, and new Fed chair pick that should come anytime, and Japan concerns, will dictate some of the movement.

Keystone is not playing in this arena. You can adopt the same technical analysis to the TBT ETF and also assess the standard H&S pattern on the TLT ETF. The TLT is the mirror image of TBT. When notes and bonds are shunned, and price drops, and yields run higher, as the 10-year yield chart shows above, the TBT is the winner and TLT the loser. When notes and bonds are bought, the price runs higher, and yields retreat, so TLT is the winner and TBT the loser. King Donnie has been quiet the last few days on Iran. After the Iranians were shot in the street, they got smart and stayed home, then the orange head jumped in and proclaimed that he stopped the shootings. It's funny. Donnie likes that Beach Boys tune, 'Bomb, Bomb, Bomb Iran'. Everybody sing. This information is for educational and entertainment purposes only. Do not invest based on anything you read or view here. Consult your financial advisor before making any investment decision.

Note Added Sunday, 1/25/26: The 10-year yield ends the week at 4.23% sitting on the 200-day MA at 4.24% the last 4 days. It is making a bounce or die decision. The yield popped to 4.32% on Tuesday.